Austin Bergner

P Round Rock Express

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX3 levels	23	22	90	4.72	3.89	27.4%	12.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.84
2025	28	MIX2 levels	27	15	97	3.43	3.95	23.2%	10.5%	—	K 19.1% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.06
2026	29	MIX2 levels	9	5	20	5.85	6.55	17.0%	17.0%	—	K 16.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 6.48
2027PROJ	30	MLBTEX	10	10	58	5.22	5.22	18.3%	12.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBTEX	3	3	20	5.25	5.33	18.4%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBTEX	4	4	27	5.36	5.48	18.3%	12.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 29) · Jared Fernandez (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%18.3%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	4	0	6	24	7	2	1	0%	1.4	29.2%	8.3%	20.8%	4.2%	6.35	3.98	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	4	0	6	24	7	2	1	0%	1.4	29.2%	8.3%	20.8%	4.2%	6.35	3.98	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	83	349	110	33	11	37%	3.1	24.0%	10.9%	13.0%	4.6%	3.35	4.99	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	10	83	349	110	33	11	37%	3.1	31.5%	9.5%	22.1%	3.2%	3.35	3.36	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	119	490	121	47	17	96%	4.4	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	4.3%	3.47	5.03	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	119	490	121	47	17	96%	4.4	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	3.5%	3.47	4.11	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	6	74	338	94	41	10	16%	2.0	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	3.5%	5.62	4.64	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	6	74	338	94	41	10	16%	2.0	27.8%	12.1%	15.7%	3.0%	5.62	3.98	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	90	394	108	48	11	96%	3.9	22.2%	12.5%	9.6%	3.7%	4.72	4.84	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	90	394	108	48	11	96%	3.9	22.2%	12.5%	9.6%	3.7%	4.72	4.84	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	90	394	108	48	11	96%	3.9	27.4%	12.2%	15.2%	2.8%	4.72	3.89	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	97	409	95	43	11	56%	3.6	19.1%	11.3%	7.9%	2.1%	3.43	4.06	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	97	409	95	43	11	56%	3.6	19.1%	11.3%	7.9%	2.1%	3.43	4.06	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	15	97	409	95	43	11	56%	3.6	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	2.7%	3.43	3.95	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	20	100	17	17	4	56%	2.2	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	5.9%	5.85	6.48	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	20	100	17	17	4	56%	2.2	16.1%	12.0%	4.1%	5.9%	5.85	6.48	—
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	5	20	100	17	17	4	56%	2.2	17.0%	17.0%	0.0%	4.0%	5.85	6.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TEX	10	10	58	245	45	30	8	100%	5.8	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.2%	5.22	5.22	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	54	227	42	28	8	100%	6.0	18.4%	12.2%	6.2%	3.4%	5.25	5.33	-0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	50	210	38	26	8	100%	6.2	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	3.6%	5.36	5.48	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	3	3	20	84	16	10	3	100%	6.7	18.4%	12.2%	6.2%	3.4%	5.25	5.33	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	27	114	21	14	4	100%	6.8	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	3.6%	5.36	5.48	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	47	199	37	24	7	100%	5.9	18.3%	12.3%	6.1%	3.5%	5.31	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	102	30	100%	6.0	18.3%	12.3%	6.1%	3.5%	5.31	5.04	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		154	84	489	2104	450	241	79	55%	3.2	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	3.7%	4.13	4.79	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	34	200	861	184	98	32	55%	3.2	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	3.7%	4.13	4.79	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Bergner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	18.3%	12.1%	3.2%	—	5.40	18.3%	6.1%	104	+0.18	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	73
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	73
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	71
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	70
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	70
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	69
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	69
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	68
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	67
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	67
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	67
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	67
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	67
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	66
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	66
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	18.3%	12.2%	1.31	5.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*