Shervyen Newton
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+/ANYM | 475 | .219/.315/.375 | 12 | 1 | 34 | — | .157/.226/.271 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+KC | 366 | .222/.306/.432 | 15 | 3 | 51 | — | .171/.237/.317 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA/A+/ROK2 orgs | 212 | .196/.276/.339 | 7 | 1 | 21 | — | .154/.214/.266 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | — | 150 | 118 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 169 | 347 | 229 | 575 | 59 | 233 | 21 | 15 | 289 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | — | 303 | 241 | 75 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 50 | 57 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 311 | 437 | 444 | 881 | 133 | 398 | 19 | 17 | 388 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | — | 266 | 207 | 58 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 84 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 280 | 420 | 449 | 870 | 169 | 421 | 32 | 17 | 379 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 423 | 382 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 139 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 209 | 283 | 330 | 613 | 120 | 303 | 33 | 9 | 277 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 142 | 116 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 319 | 293 | 612 | 103 | 339 | 41 | 14 | 281 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 378 | 327 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 134 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 299 | 330 | 629 | 131 | 303 | 35 | 10 | 287 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 97 | 84 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 379 | 548 | 927 | 250 | 404 | 30 | 10 | 396 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 366 | 324 | 72 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 37 | 119 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 306 | 432 | 738 | 210 | 298 | 33 | 10 | 324 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 62 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 148 | 246 | 241 | 487 | 93 | 259 | 42 | 11 | 227 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 129 | 116 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 379 | 676 | 155 | 300 | 33 | 7 | 303 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 21 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 238 | 368 | 607 | 211 | 222 | 43 | 10 | 270 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 150 | 124 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 113 | 267 | 153 | 420 | 40 | 159 | 26 | 11 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 303 | 256 | 55 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 35 | 70 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 215 | 319 | 301 | 619 | 86 | 277 | 23 | 12 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 266 | 225 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 119 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 196 | 296 | 307 | 602 | 111 | 338 | 45 | 11 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 423 | 397 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 193 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 149 | 197 | 237 | 434 | 88 | 259 | 46 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 142 | 123 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 83 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 114 | 210 | 171 | 381 | 57 | 287 | 58 | 9 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 378 | 344 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 177 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 145 | 216 | 244 | 460 | 99 | 254 | 47 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 97 | 88 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 263 | 375 | 638 | 170 | 330 | 42 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 366 | 334 | 57 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 150 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 171 | 237 | 317 | 554 | 147 | 265 | 41 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 62 | 56 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 180 | 179 | 359 | 71 | 218 | 52 | 8 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 129 | 119 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 52 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 234 | 294 | 528 | 118 | 255 | 40 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 350 | 540 | 200 | 156 | 57 | 5 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 150 | 124 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 113 | 267 | 153 | 420 | 40 | 165 | 26 | 11 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 2 | — | 150 | 118 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 169 | 347 | 229 | 575 | 59 | 233 | 21 | 15 | 289 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 303 | 256 | 55 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 35 | 70 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 215 | 319 | 301 | 619 | 86 | 287 | 23 | 12 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 2 | — | 303 | 241 | 75 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 50 | 57 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 311 | 437 | 444 | 881 | 133 | 398 | 19 | 17 | 388 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 266 | 225 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 119 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 196 | 296 | 307 | 602 | 111 | 364 | 45 | 11 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK RAW | Kingsport Mets | — | 266 | 207 | 58 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 84 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 280 | 420 | 449 | 870 | 169 | 421 | 32 | 17 | 379 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 423 | 397 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 193 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 149 | 197 | 237 | 434 | 88 | 264 | 46 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 423 | 382 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 139 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 209 | 283 | 330 | 613 | 120 | 303 | 33 | 9 | 277 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 142 | 123 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 83 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 114 | 210 | 171 | 381 | 57 | 310 | 58 | 9 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 142 | 116 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 319 | 293 | 612 | 103 | 339 | 41 | 14 | 281 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 432 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 218 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 226 | 271 | 496 | 113 | 279 | 46 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 475 | 411 | 90 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 49 | 163 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 315 | 375 | 690 | 156 | 325 | 34 | 10 | 309 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 366 | 334 | 57 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 150 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 171 | 237 | 317 | 554 | 147 | 269 | 41 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 366 | 324 | 72 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 37 | 119 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 306 | 432 | 738 | 210 | 298 | 33 | 10 | 324 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 212 | 195 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 97 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 205 | 241 | 446 | 97 | 245 | 46 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 212 | 189 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 77 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 276 | 339 | 615 | 143 | 283 | 36 | 8 | 277 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 150 | 123 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 114 | 267 | 154 | 421 | 41 | 159 | 26 | 11 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 303 | 261 | 55 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 35 | 70 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 211 | 319 | 295 | 614 | 84 | 277 | 23 | 12 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 266 | 232 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 119 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 190 | 296 | 297 | 593 | 108 | 338 | 45 | 11 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 423 | 396 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 193 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 149 | 197 | 237 | 435 | 88 | 259 | 46 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 142 | 126 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 83 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 210 | 167 | 377 | 56 | 287 | 58 | 9 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 434 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 218 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 226 | 270 | 495 | 113 | 270 | 46 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 366 | 334 | 57 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 150 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 171 | 237 | 317 | 554 | 147 | 265 | 41 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 212 | 195 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 97 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 205 | 241 | 446 | 97 | 234 | 46 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 212 | 195 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 97 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 205 | 241 | 446 | 97 | 234 | 46 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2337 | 2086 | 339 | 67 | 15 | 38 | 182 | 969 | 36 | 21 | 16 | 163 | 242 | 264 | 505 | 101 | 274 | 41 | 8 | 226 | 39 | -170 | -2 | +0 | +25 | +51 | -9.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 95 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 51 | 270 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 164 | 244 | 267 | 511 | 103 | 275 | 42 | 8 | 226 | 39 | -47 | -0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 129 PAwOBA .294 → .226 (−67)K% 32.6% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.56% | ÷1.024 | ×1.270 | — | — | 40.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.20% | ÷0.967 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×0.978 | 21.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.113 | ×0.810 | ×0.976 | ×0.978 | 2.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.976 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.76% | ÷0.959 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 5.52% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .294 → .226; ISO .155 → .115; BABIP .300 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 62 PAwOBA .221 → .162 (−60)K% 41.9% → 51.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.94% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 51.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.29% | ÷1.056 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 15.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.025 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 5.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.10% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .221 → .162; ISO .093 → .071; BABIP .259 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Royals · 21 PAwOBA .262 → .146 (−117)K% 42.9% → 59.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.86% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 59.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.010 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 5.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 7.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 6.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 7.77% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 96, K 107, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .146; ISO .211 → .117; BABIP .222 → .156. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 366 PAwOBA .315 → .244 (−71)K% 32.5% → 41.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.51% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 41.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.84% | ÷0.929 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.05% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 16.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.29% | ÷0.957 | ×0.810 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 7.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.46% | ÷0.908 | ×0.850 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.033 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.60% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .315 → .244; ISO .210 → .153; BABIP .298 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 378 PAwOBA .282 → .203 (−78)K% 35.4% → 46.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.45% | ÷0.995 | ×1.310 | — | — | 46.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.32% | ÷1.020 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.12% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.24% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×1.021 | ×0.998 | 18.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×1.021 | ×0.998 | 5.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.060 | ×0.850 | ×1.021 | ×0.998 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.15% | ÷0.925 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.93% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 112, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .282 → .203; ISO .131 → .103; BABIP .303 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 97 PAwOBA .390 → .279 (−111)K% 29.9% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.90% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.31% | ÷1.081 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.82% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×0.990 | 18.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.36% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×0.990 | 13.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.27% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 6.07% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 110, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .390 → .279; ISO .250 → .182; BABIP .404 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASt. Lucie Mets · 142 PAwOBA .281 → .184 (−96)K% 40.8% → 58.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.85% | ÷0.945 | ×1.360 | — | — | 58.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.08% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.028 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | — | 20.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | — | 8.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.910 | ×0.971 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.988 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 127, K 89, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .281 → .184; ISO .103 → .065; BABIP .339 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AColumbia Fireflies · 423 PAwOBA .269 → .189 (−80)K% 32.9% → 45.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.86% | ÷0.963 | ×1.340 | — | — | 45.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷1.134 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 5.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 19.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.17% | ÷1.038 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.952 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.949 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 3.30% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 90, K 93, BB 127 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .269 → .189; ISO .120 → .088; BABIP .303 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).