Lolo Sanchez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | AA/ROKPIT | 269 | .222/.337/.316 | 5 | 7 | 57 | — | .204/.292/.281 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAPIT | 332 | .227/.334/.320 | 5 | 6 | 52 | — | .206/.285/.278 |
| 2024 | 25 | AASEA | 133 | .207/.295/.267 | 0 | 1 | 34 | — | .175/.250/.217 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Pirates | — | 190 | 153 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 235 | 361 | 275 | 635 | 39 | 265 | 9 | 13 | 295 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | — | 234 | 204 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 284 | 362 | 417 | 779 | 132 | 295 | 8 | 9 | 343 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | West Virginia Power | — | 441 | 378 | 92 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 72 | 5 | 30 | 13 | 243 | 325 | 328 | 654 | 85 | 287 | 16 | 9 | 290 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | — | 195 | 163 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 31 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 196 | 303 | 270 | 573 | 74 | 233 | 16 | 9 | 262 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 263 | 226 | 68 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 28 | 12 | 20 | 10 | 301 | 380 | 451 | 832 | 150 | 327 | 11 | 6 | 361 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 437 | 364 | 96 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 55 | 72 | 11 | 30 | 9 | 264 | 377 | 453 | 830 | 190 | 282 | 16 | 13 | 366 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 254 | 212 | 49 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 40 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 231 | 345 | 330 | 676 | 99 | 260 | 16 | 13 | 309 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Pirates | — | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 77 | 200 | 77 | 277 | 100 | 20 | 7 | 156 | -42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 332 | 278 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 48 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 227 | 334 | 320 | 655 | 94 | 256 | 14 | 12 | 297 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 133 | 116 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 207 | 295 | 267 | 563 | 60 | 258 | 17 | 10 | 261 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Pirates | — | 190 | 160 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 175 | 279 | 206 | 485 | 31 | 188 | 12 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Pirates | — | 234 | 212 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 226 | 284 | 325 | 609 | 99 | 238 | 12 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 441 | 393 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 97 | 5 | 30 | 13 | 216 | 274 | 285 | 559 | 69 | 261 | 22 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 195 | 167 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 180 | 271 | 251 | 523 | 72 | 213 | 23 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 263 | 231 | 58 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 12 | 20 | 10 | 251 | 322 | 381 | 703 | 130 | 273 | 14 | 5 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 437 | 383 | 84 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 95 | 11 | 30 | 9 | 219 | 305 | 355 | 660 | 136 | 250 | 22 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 254 | 222 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 50 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 212 | 297 | 293 | 590 | 81 | 244 | 20 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 77 | 200 | 77 | 277 | 79 | 27 | 7 | 106 | -42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 332 | 291 | 60 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 58 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 206 | 285 | 278 | 563 | 72 | 229 | 17 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 133 | 120 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 175 | 250 | 217 | 467 | 42 | 229 | 20 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Pirates | — | 190 | 160 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 175 | 279 | 206 | 485 | 31 | 201 | 12 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Pirates | — | 190 | 153 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 235 | 361 | 275 | 635 | 39 | 265 | 9 | 13 | 295 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Pirates | — | 234 | 212 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 226 | 284 | 325 | 609 | 99 | 245 | 12 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Pirates | — | 234 | 204 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 284 | 362 | 417 | 779 | 132 | 295 | 8 | 9 | 343 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 441 | 393 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 97 | 5 | 30 | 13 | 216 | 274 | 285 | 559 | 69 | 275 | 22 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A RAW | West Virginia Power | — | 441 | 378 | 92 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 72 | 5 | 30 | 13 | 243 | 325 | 328 | 654 | 85 | 287 | 16 | 9 | 290 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 458 | 398 | 88 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 26 | 82 | 19 | 33 | 15 | 221 | 300 | 327 | 627 | 106 | 266 | 18 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 458 | 389 | 100 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 35 | 59 | 19 | 33 | 15 | 257 | 348 | 375 | 723 | 118 | 289 | 13 | 8 | 319 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 437 | 383 | 84 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 95 | 11 | 30 | 9 | 219 | 305 | 355 | 660 | 136 | 256 | 22 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 437 | 364 | 96 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 55 | 72 | 11 | 30 | 9 | 264 | 377 | 453 | 830 | 190 | 282 | 16 | 13 | 366 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 235 | 48 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 54 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 204 | 292 | 281 | 573 | 77 | 246 | 20 | 9 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 269 | 225 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 43 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 222 | 337 | 316 | 653 | 93 | 251 | 16 | 13 | 300 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 332 | 291 | 60 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 58 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 206 | 285 | 278 | 563 | 72 | 242 | 17 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 332 | 278 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 48 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 227 | 334 | 320 | 655 | 94 | 256 | 14 | 12 | 297 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 133 | 120 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 175 | 250 | 217 | 467 | 42 | 226 | 20 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 133 | 116 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 207 | 295 | 267 | 563 | 60 | 258 | 17 | 10 | 261 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Pirates | — | 190 | 165 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 170 | 279 | 200 | 479 | 30 | 188 | 12 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Pirates | — | 234 | 215 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 223 | 284 | 321 | 605 | 98 | 238 | 12 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 441 | 407 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 97 | 5 | 30 | 13 | 209 | 274 | 275 | 549 | 66 | 261 | 22 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 458 | 410 | 88 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 26 | 82 | 19 | 33 | 15 | 215 | 300 | 317 | 617 | 102 | 247 | 18 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 437 | 387 | 84 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 95 | 11 | 30 | 9 | 217 | 305 | 351 | 656 | 134 | 250 | 22 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 238 | 48 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 54 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 202 | 292 | 277 | 569 | 76 | 235 | 20 | 9 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 332 | 297 | 60 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 58 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 202 | 285 | 273 | 558 | 71 | 229 | 17 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 133 | 120 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 175 | 250 | 217 | 467 | 42 | 229 | 20 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 133 | 120 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 175 | 250 | 217 | 467 | 42 | 229 | 20 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2494 | 2192 | 462 | 71 | 15 | 30 | 181 | 462 | 55 | 125 | 62 | 211 | 287 | 298 | 585 | 87 | 251 | 19 | 7 | 256 | 59 | -120 | +0 | +0 | +9 | +54 | -5.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 121 | 19 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 120 | 14 | 33 | 16 | 212 | 288 | 301 | 589 | 89 | 252 | 18 | 7 | 256 | 59 | -31 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 133 PAwOBA .255 → .219 (−36)K% 17.3% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.29% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.77% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 19.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.08% | ÷0.977 | ×0.840 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 0.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 2.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 109, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .255 → .219; ISO .060 → .051; BABIP .258 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAltoona Curve · 332 PAwOBA .292 → .245 (−47)K% 14.5% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.46% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.35% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.43% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 19.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.78% | ÷1.142 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 3.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.106 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.55% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .292 → .245; ISO .094 → .072; BABIP .256 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAltoona Curve · 254 PAwOBA .304 → .262 (−42)K% 15.7% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.75% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.39% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.09% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×1.027 | 20.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.49% | ÷0.928 | ×0.860 | ×0.961 | ×1.027 | 3.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.961 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.91% | ÷1.084 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.15% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .304 → .262; ISO .099 → .080; BABIP .260 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Pirates · 15 PAwOBA .153 → .106 (−47)K% 20.0% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.069 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.988 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 4.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 4.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 7.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 100, K 114, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .153 → .106; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .100 → .079. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 437 PAwOBA .361 → .289 (−73)K% 16.5% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.48% | ÷1.021 | ×1.350 | — | — | 21.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.59% | ÷1.085 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.52% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.89% | ÷0.981 | ×0.910 | ×0.967 | ×1.012 | 18.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.16% | ÷0.918 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×1.012 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.967 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.82% | ÷1.238 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 3.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 96, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 104, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .361 → .289; ISO .190 → .141; BABIP .282 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 263 PAwOBA .354 → .299 (−55)K% 10.6% → 14.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.65% | ÷0.983 | ×1.340 | — | — | 14.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.46% | ÷0.990 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 4.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.56% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 3.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.24% | ÷1.113 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 19.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.05% | ÷0.914 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 3.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 1.69% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 123, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .354 → .299; ISO .150 → .141; BABIP .327 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Bradenton Marauders · 195 PAwOBA .259 → .227 (−32)K% 15.9% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.90% | ÷1.005 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.23% | ÷0.999 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.042 | 7.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.59% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.042 | 3.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.94% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 17.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.005 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 2.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.915 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 1.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.069 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.65% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 83, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .259 → .227; ISO .074 → .065; BABIP .233 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AWest Virginia Power · 441 PAwOBA .285 → .244 (−41)K% 16.3% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.33% | ÷0.996 | ×1.340 | — | — | 21.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.07% | ÷1.038 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.045 | 6.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.045 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.55% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×1.045 | 20.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.951 | ×0.820 | ×0.967 | ×1.045 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.080 | ×0.940 | ×0.967 | ×1.045 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.31% | ÷1.181 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.045 | 0.95% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 116, K 99, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .285 → .244; ISO .085 → .071; BABIP .287 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).