Kelvin Melean
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | AAA/AA/A+SD | 312 | .238/.334/.327 | 3 | 2 | 58 | — | .211/.286/.289 |
| 2024 | 25 | INTLTiburones de … | 94 | .273/.312/.330 | 0 | 2 | 82 | — | |
| 2025 | 26 | INTLTiburones de … | 25 | .250/.280/.292 | 0 | 0 | 63 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 208 | 172 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 28 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 291 | 405 | 372 | 777 | 81 | 342 | 13 | 13 | 354 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 190 | 175 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 306 | 326 | 632 | 63 | 343 | 22 | 4 | 282 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 179 | 158 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 241 | 318 | 373 | 692 | 133 | 281 | 20 | 8 | 308 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | INTL | Canberra Cavalry | — | 63 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 254 | 271 | 525 | 68 | 262 | 25 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 49 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 229 | 304 | 534 | 109 | 229 | 22 | 4 | 234 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 67 | 63 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 159 | 209 | 222 | 431 | 63 | 222 | 27 | 6 | 199 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | INTL | Canberra Cavalry | — | 44 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 184 | 279 | 211 | 490 | 26 | 233 | 18 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 21 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 44 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 316 | 649 | 53 | 303 | 14 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 152 | 135 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 170 | 248 | 215 | 463 | 44 | 198 | 16 | 9 | 217 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 177 | 158 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 272 | 347 | 399 | 745 | 127 | 323 | 17 | 7 | 335 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 64 | 60 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 333 | 383 | 717 | 83 | 298 | 5 | 5 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 53 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 327 | 319 | 646 | 64 | 316 | 19 | 9 | 292 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 157 | 139 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 318 | 374 | 692 | 129 | 314 | 23 | 9 | 306 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 102 | 83 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 217 | 363 | 253 | 616 | 36 | 258 | 16 | 16 | 302 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 94 | 88 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 312 | 330 | 641 | 57 | 300 | 10 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 280 | 292 | 572 | 42 | 286 | 12 | 0 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 208 | 181 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 34 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 188 | 283 | 238 | 520 | 50 | 224 | 16 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A+ MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 190 | 177 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 58 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 258 | 271 | 529 | 51 | 313 | 31 | 3 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 179 | 162 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 261 | 296 | 558 | 99 | 242 | 27 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 49 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 170 | 188 | 277 | 464 | 106 | 213 | 31 | 2 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 67 | 64 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 125 | 164 | 172 | 336 | 47 | 192 | 37 | 4 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 152 | 139 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 215 | 201 | 416 | 43 | 192 | 20 | 6 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 177 | 162 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 216 | 278 | 309 | 587 | 93 | 274 | 23 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 53 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 250 | 519 | 42 | 281 | 25 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 157 | 143 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 224 | 279 | 343 | 622 | 119 | 289 | 28 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 102 | 88 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 193 | 304 | 227 | 531 | 34 | 239 | 21 | 11 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 208 | 181 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 34 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 188 | 283 | 238 | 520 | 50 | 228 | 16 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 208 | 172 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 28 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 291 | 405 | 372 | 777 | 81 | 342 | 13 | 13 | 354 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 432 | 399 | 82 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 124 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 206 | 254 | 273 | 527 | 68 | 287 | 29 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 432 | 392 | 96 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 93 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 304 | 337 | 640 | 92 | 306 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 160 | 151 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 139 | 177 | 199 | 376 | 60 | 208 | 34 | 4 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 160 | 147 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 177 | 234 | 245 | 479 | 68 | 227 | 23 | 6 | 219 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 21 | INTL MLE | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 44 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 316 | 649 | 53 | 303 | 14 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 21 | INTL RAW | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 44 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 316 | 649 | 53 | 303 | 14 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 393 | 361 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 85 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 191 | 247 | 260 | 508 | 69 | 239 | 22 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 393 | 353 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 57 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 238 | 307 | 326 | 632 | 88 | 271 | 15 | 7 | 286 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 312 | 279 | 59 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 77 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 211 | 286 | 290 | 576 | 79 | 279 | 25 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 312 | 269 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 62 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 238 | 334 | 327 | 662 | 89 | 296 | 20 | 11 | 303 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL MLE | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 94 | 88 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 312 | 330 | 641 | 57 | 300 | 10 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL RAW | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 94 | 88 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 312 | 330 | 641 | 57 | 300 | 10 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL MLE | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 280 | 292 | 572 | 42 | 286 | 12 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL RAW | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 280 | 292 | 572 | 42 | 286 | 12 | 0 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 208 | 182 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 34 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 187 | 283 | 236 | 519 | 49 | 224 | 16 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 432 | 403 | 82 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 124 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 203 | 254 | 270 | 525 | 67 | 279 | 29 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 160 | 152 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 138 | 177 | 197 | 375 | 59 | 201 | 34 | 4 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 393 | 363 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 85 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 190 | 247 | 259 | 506 | 69 | 236 | 22 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 312 | 280 | 59 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 77 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 211 | 286 | 289 | 575 | 79 | 271 | 25 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1668 | 1521 | 305 | 56 | 7 | 10 | 93 | 393 | 30 | 33 | 14 | 201 | 260 | 266 | 527 | 66 | 261 | 24 | 6 | 207 | 26 | -146 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +36 | -10.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 119 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 153 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 201 | 261 | 268 | 529 | 67 | 261 | 24 | 6 | 207 | 26 | -57 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -4.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 157 PAwOBA .300 → .262 (−38)K% 22.9% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.93% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.92% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.36% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 20.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.77% | ÷1.035 | ×0.840 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 6.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.94% | ÷1.035 | ×0.940 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 1.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.94% | ÷0.870 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.81% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 107, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .300 → .262; ISO .129 → .114; BABIP .314 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 102 PAwOBA .296 → .247 (−49)K% 15.7% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.69% | ÷0.992 | ×1.270 | — | — | 20.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.69% | ÷1.011 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 10.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.37% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×0.988 | 23.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.810 | ×1.003 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.003 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.28% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .296 → .247; ISO .036 → .032; BABIP .258 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 53 PAwOBA .290 → .245 (−46)K% 18.9% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.87% | ÷0.959 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 22.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.133 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 6.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 109, 2B 127, 3B 100, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .290 → .245; ISO .064 → .049; BABIP .316 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 177 PAwOBA .328 → .259 (−69)K% 16.9% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.95% | ÷1.011 | ×1.350 | — | — | 22.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.78% | ÷1.050 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.39% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 2.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.66% | ÷1.017 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 20.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.81% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 5.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.067 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.057 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 1.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 113, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .328 → .259; ISO .127 → .094; BABIP .323 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASan Antonio Missions · 152 PAwOBA .213 → .189 (−24)K% 15.8% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.949 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.55% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.12% | ÷0.989 | ×0.940 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 16.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.925 | ×0.870 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 2.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.90% | ÷0.868 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.83% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 98, 2B 85, 3B 114, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .213 → .189; ISO .044 → .042; BABIP .198 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 67 PAwOBA .194 → .143 (−52)K% 26.9% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.87% | ÷0.969 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.97% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.050 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 11.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 7.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.151 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .194 → .143; ISO .063 → .045; BABIP .222 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 49 PAwOBA .232 → .202 (−30)K% 22.4% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.45% | ÷0.987 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.08% | ÷0.977 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 3.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.027 | 16.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.940 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.027 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 3.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .232 → .202; ISO .109 → .100; BABIP .229 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 190 PAwOBA .276 → .228 (−48)K% 22.1% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.11% | ÷0.966 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.68% | ÷1.087 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 2.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.07% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×1.042 | 25.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.77% | ÷1.038 | ×0.820 | ×1.006 | ×1.042 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.006 | ×1.042 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.839 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 93, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .276 → .228; ISO .063 → .049; BABIP .343 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .