Cristopher Navarro
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | AA/A+COL | 171 | .160/.225/.179 | 0 | 0 | -12 | — | .137/.183/.156 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA/A+COL | 127 | .175/.242/.246 | 0 | 0 | 11 | — | .154/.202/.214 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA/ROKCOL | 132 | .248/.346/.345 | 2 | 2 | 55 | — | .212/.284/.281 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 174 | 154 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 253 | 320 | 279 | 599 | 26 | 320 | 20 | 7 | 272 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 249 | 214 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 280 | 356 | 336 | 692 | 56 | 323 | 12 | 9 | 306 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 266 | 244 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 217 | 277 | 283 | 559 | 66 | 242 | 11 | 7 | 256 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 56 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 314 | 277 | 590 | 21 | 286 | 12 | 5 | 251 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 77 | 69 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 246 | 307 | 275 | 582 | 29 | 347 | 27 | 4 | 265 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 118 | 107 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 262 | 319 | 346 | 665 | 84 | 329 | 20 | 7 | 298 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 30 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 241 | 475 | 34 | 273 | 23 | 3 | 217 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 141 | 127 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 223 | 165 | 388 | 16 | 211 | 26 | 9 | 187 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 98 | 87 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 232 | 230 | 461 | 69 | 219 | 24 | 8 | 209 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 29 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 276 | 296 | 572 | 74 | 300 | 24 | 7 | 261 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 61 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 271 | 259 | 530 | 56 | 250 | 20 | 7 | 240 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 38 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 237 | 152 | 388 | 30 | 174 | 26 | 11 | 198 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 33 | 26 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 500 | 606 | 769 | 1.375 | 269 | 579 | 15 | 18 | 588 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 174 | 158 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 177 | 231 | 196 | 427 | 19 | 223 | 24 | 5 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 249 | 222 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 203 | 259 | 243 | 503 | 41 | 222 | 14 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 266 | 251 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 175 | 216 | 227 | 443 | 52 | 201 | 15 | 4 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 56 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 294 | 271 | 565 | 21 | 251 | 18 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 77 | 70 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 280 | 257 | 537 | 29 | 343 | 38 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 118 | 110 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 236 | 276 | 309 | 585 | 73 | 315 | 29 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 30 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 241 | 475 | 34 | 258 | 27 | 3 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 141 | 131 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 173 | 137 | 310 | 15 | 193 | 36 | 6 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 98 | 89 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 211 | 225 | 435 | 67 | 205 | 29 | 6 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 29 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 172 | 179 | 351 | 36 | 256 | 34 | 3 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 61 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 254 | 255 | 509 | 55 | 247 | 25 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 38 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 211 | 147 | 358 | 29 | 155 | 32 | 8 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 33 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 345 | 424 | 483 | 907 | 138 | 428 | 21 | 9 | 412 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 174 | 158 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 177 | 231 | 196 | 427 | 19 | 235 | 24 | 5 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 174 | 154 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 253 | 320 | 279 | 599 | 26 | 320 | 20 | 7 | 272 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 249 | 222 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 203 | 259 | 243 | 503 | 41 | 239 | 14 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 249 | 214 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 280 | 356 | 336 | 692 | 56 | 323 | 12 | 9 | 306 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 266 | 251 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 175 | 216 | 227 | 443 | 52 | 205 | 15 | 4 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK RAW | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 266 | 244 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 217 | 277 | 283 | 559 | 66 | 242 | 11 | 7 | 256 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 56 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 294 | 271 | 565 | 21 | 300 | 18 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 56 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 314 | 277 | 590 | 21 | 286 | 12 | 5 | 251 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 195 | 179 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 223 | 272 | 274 | 546 | 50 | 336 | 32 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 195 | 176 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 256 | 314 | 318 | 632 | 62 | 336 | 23 | 6 | 285 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 171 | 160 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 178 | 144 | 321 | 12 | 210 | 35 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 171 | 156 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 225 | 179 | 404 | 19 | 223 | 26 | 8 | 192 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 127 | 117 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 202 | 214 | 415 | 60 | 222 | 29 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 127 | 114 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 242 | 246 | 488 | 70 | 238 | 24 | 8 | 221 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 132 | 118 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 277 | 263 | 540 | 59 | 271 | 26 | 7 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 132 | 113 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 248 | 346 | 345 | 691 | 97 | 302 | 20 | 11 | 315 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 174 | 161 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 174 | 231 | 193 | 423 | 19 | 223 | 24 | 5 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 249 | 230 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 196 | 259 | 235 | 494 | 39 | 222 | 14 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 266 | 251 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 175 | 216 | 227 | 443 | 52 | 201 | 15 | 4 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 56 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 294 | 245 | 539 | 19 | 251 | 18 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 195 | 181 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 221 | 272 | 271 | 543 | 50 | 326 | 32 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 171 | 160 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 178 | 144 | 321 | 12 | 204 | 35 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 127 | 119 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 151 | 202 | 210 | 412 | 59 | 217 | 29 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 132 | 119 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 277 | 261 | 537 | 59 | 266 | 26 | 7 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 132 | 119 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 277 | 261 | 537 | 59 | 266 | 26 | 7 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1370 | 1253 | 232 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 70 | 320 | 14 | 23 | 23 | 185 | 236 | 226 | 462 | 41 | 244 | 23 | 5 | 203 | 24 | -124 | -5 | +0 | +15 | +30 | -8.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 109 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 152 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 184 | 235 | 221 | 455 | 37 | 243 | 23 | 5 | 203 | 24 | -59 | -2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -4.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 61 PAwOBA .242 → .225 (−16)K% 19.7% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.67% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.56% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.990 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×1.033 | 19.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.033 | 6.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.046 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .242 → .225; ISO .056 → .051; BABIP .250 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 38 PAwOBA .194 → .151 (−43)K% 26.3% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.066 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷1.041 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 12.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.102 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 3.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 108, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .194 → .151; ISO .030 → .023; BABIP .174 → .155. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Rockies · 33 PAwOBA .573 → .412 (−161)K% 15.2% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.15% | ÷0.991 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.035 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 10.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 47.62% | ÷1.003 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 36.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.034 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 3.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.044 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 6.72% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .573 → .412; ISO .269 → .194; BABIP .579 → .428. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 98 PAwOBA .206 → .183 (−23)K% 24.5% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.49% | ÷1.052 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.065 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 13.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 113, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .206 → .183; ISO .069 → .067; BABIP .219 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Spokane Indians · 29 PAwOBA .255 → .190 (−65)K% 24.1% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.14% | ÷0.983 | ×1.350 | — | — | 33.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷1.075 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 17.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 7.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 87, K 97, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .190; ISO .074 → .054; BABIP .300 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Spokane Indians · 141 PAwOBA .182 → .143 (−39)K% 26.2% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.24% | ÷0.975 | ×1.350 | — | — | 36.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷1.022 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.89% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 17.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 1.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.316 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 108, 2B 96, 3B 91, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .182 → .143; ISO .016 → .013; BABIP .211 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAHartford Yard Goats · 30 PAwOBA .211 → .184 (−27)K% 23.3% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.33% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 21.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.035 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .211 → .184; ISO .034 → .028; BABIP .273 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFresno Grizzlies · 118 PAwOBA .290 → .244 (−46)K% 20.3% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.34% | ÷0.972 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.78% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.30% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 25.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷1.057 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 5.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.218 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 126, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .290 → .244; ISO .084 → .061; BABIP .329 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).