Wilkel Hernandez

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AADET	28	27	120	4.34	4.40	20.6%	10.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.29
2025	26	AAADET	34	19	114	4.80	4.17	19.3%	8.9%	—	K 16.6% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.66
2027PROJ	28	MLBDET	13	13	80	5.12	5.12	15.7%	9.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBDET	5	5	28	4.94	4.89	18.1%	8.6%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBDET	7	7	40	4.97	5.02	18.2%	9.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Luke Irvine (age 27) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%15.7%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	5	5	15	61	14	6	0	100%	3.0	15.6%	12.3%	3.3%	0.0%	1.20	3.34	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	5	5	15	61	14	6	0	100%	3.0	23.0%	9.8%	13.1%	0.0%	1.20	2.43	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	12	7	44	181	44	22	1	58%	3.7	16.5%	15.2%	1.3%	0.8%	2.64	4.05	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	12	7	44	181	44	22	1	58%	3.7	24.3%	12.2%	12.2%	0.6%	2.64	2.90	—
2018	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	10	10	42	182	34	16	4	100%	4.2	13.8%	10.4%	3.5%	3.0%	4.71	4.91	—
2018	19	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	10	10	42	182	34	16	4	100%	4.2	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	2.2%	4.71	3.86	—
2019	20	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	21	101	432	90	26	5	100%	4.8	15.4%	7.1%	8.3%	1.7%	3.73	3.62	—
2019	20	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	21	101	432	90	26	5	100%	4.8	20.8%	6.0%	14.8%	1.2%	3.73	2.73	—
2022	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	14	13	44	189	51	16	4	93%	3.1	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	2.2%	4.50	3.86	—
2022	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	14	13	44	189	51	16	4	93%	3.1	27.0%	8.5%	18.5%	2.1%	4.50	3.05	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	20	106	440	97	31	11	77%	4.1	17.0%	8.1%	8.9%	3.5%	3.65	4.64	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	20	106	440	97	31	11	77%	4.1	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.5%	3.65	3.50	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	28	27	120	524	108	55	16	96%	4.3	16.7%	11.5%	5.1%	3.9%	4.34	5.29	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	28	27	120	524	108	55	16	96%	4.3	16.7%	11.5%	5.1%	3.9%	4.34	5.29	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	28	27	120	524	108	55	16	96%	4.3	20.6%	10.5%	10.1%	3.1%	4.34	4.40	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	34	19	114	497	96	44	14	56%	3.4	16.6%	8.0%	8.6%	3.6%	4.80	4.66	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	34	19	114	497	96	44	14	56%	3.4	16.6%	8.0%	8.6%	3.6%	4.80	4.66	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	34	19	114	497	96	44	14	56%	3.4	19.3%	8.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.80	4.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	DET	13	13	80	338	53	32	11	100%	6.2	15.7%	9.4%	6.3%	3.2%	5.12	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	77	324	59	28	11	100%	5.9	18.1%	8.6%	9.5%	3.4%	4.94	4.89	+0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	72	304	55	27	11	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.0%	9.2%	3.5%	4.97	5.02	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	28	118	21	10	4	100%	5.6	18.1%	8.6%	9.5%	3.4%	4.94	4.89	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	40	169	31	15	6	100%	5.7	18.2%	9.0%	9.2%	3.5%	4.97	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	68	287	52	25	10	100%	6.2	18.1%	8.8%	9.3%	3.5%	4.96	4.59	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	74	29	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.8%	9.3%	3.5%	4.96	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		150	122	587	2506	414	239	72	81%	3.9	16.5%	9.5%	7.0%	2.9%	4.03	4.49	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	42	200	853	141	81	24	81%	3.9	16.5%	9.5%	7.0%	2.9%	4.03	4.49	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilkel Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	15.7%	9.4%	3.2%	—	4.95	18.1%	9.3%	149	-0.17	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	82
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	81
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	80
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	79
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	78
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	78
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	78
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	77
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	77
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	77
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	77
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	76
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	75
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	75
Tim Corcoran R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP-	4.67	14.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.29	7.6%	-3.8%	17	+0.62	4.10	130	74
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	74
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	14.6%	9.8%	2.3%	.311	4.01	17.3%	6.4%	44	-0.36	4.01	272	74
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	74
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	74
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	76	17.3%	9.0%	1.30	5.01
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
John Morris ('66-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	58	18.3%*	8.2%*	1.00*	4.74*