Carlos Rincon
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | AA/A+2 orgs | 431 | .221/.306/.401 | 16 | 2 | 49 | — | .166/.232/.303 |
| 2021 | 23 | AANYM | 425 | .265/.336/.496 | 22 | 5 | 80 | — | .217/.273/.393 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAANYM | 157 | .218/.268/.388 | 5 | 0 | 35 | — | .173/.210/.287 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | — | 201 | 180 | 59 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 53 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 328 | 389 | 661 | 1.050 | 333 | 393 | 26 | 8 | 443 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 370 | 334 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 18 | 32 | 143 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 198 | 272 | 404 | 676 | 207 | 274 | 39 | 9 | 298 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | — | 52 | 51 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 288 | 529 | 818 | 255 | 344 | 31 | 2 | 354 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 131 | 110 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 15 | 16 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 327 | 431 | 818 | 1.249 | 491 | 323 | 24 | 12 | 517 | 158 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 338 | 288 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 91 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 226 | 334 | 358 | 692 | 132 | 301 | 27 | 12 | 315 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 277 | 254 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 84 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 282 | 378 | 660 | 161 | 281 | 30 | 7 | 296 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 154 | 130 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 351 | 446 | 797 | 215 | 304 | 29 | 14 | 356 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 425 | 381 | 101 | 20 | 1 | 22 | 36 | 114 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 265 | 336 | 496 | 833 | 231 | 319 | 27 | 8 | 363 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 157 | 147 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 218 | 268 | 388 | 655 | 170 | 293 | 32 | 6 | 291 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 201 | 187 | 40 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 214 | 258 | 428 | 685 | 214 | 292 | 38 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 370 | 345 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 196 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 133 | 188 | 267 | 454 | 133 | 244 | 53 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 52 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 192 | 333 | 526 | 157 | 262 | 44 | 2 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 131 | 115 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 252 | 338 | 626 | 965 | 374 | 275 | 33 | 8 | 402 | 158 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 338 | 300 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 121 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 180 | 266 | 277 | 542 | 97 | 268 | 36 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 277 | 262 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 107 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 168 | 213 | 290 | 503 | 122 | 247 | 39 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 154 | 135 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 266 | 326 | 592 | 163 | 255 | 40 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 425 | 392 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 137 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 217 | 273 | 393 | 665 | 176 | 278 | 32 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 157 | 150 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 173 | 210 | 287 | 497 | 113 | 275 | 39 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 201 | 187 | 40 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 214 | 258 | 428 | 685 | 214 | 295 | 38 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Dodgers | — | 201 | 180 | 59 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 53 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 328 | 389 | 661 | 1.050 | 333 | 393 | 26 | 8 | 443 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 396 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 220 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 141 | 190 | 280 | 471 | 139 | 256 | 52 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 422 | 385 | 80 | 17 | 1 | 21 | 33 | 159 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 208 | 274 | 421 | 695 | 213 | 285 | 38 | 8 | 305 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 469 | 415 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 40 | 164 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 200 | 286 | 373 | 660 | 173 | 277 | 35 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 469 | 398 | 101 | 22 | 2 | 22 | 57 | 122 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 254 | 361 | 485 | 846 | 231 | 306 | 26 | 12 | 371 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 397 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 28 | 168 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 234 | 305 | 539 | 136 | 250 | 39 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 431 | 384 | 85 | 21 | 0 | 16 | 41 | 129 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 306 | 401 | 707 | 180 | 289 | 30 | 10 | 317 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 425 | 392 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 137 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 217 | 273 | 393 | 665 | 176 | 282 | 32 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 425 | 381 | 101 | 20 | 1 | 22 | 36 | 114 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 265 | 336 | 496 | 833 | 231 | 319 | 27 | 8 | 363 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 157 | 150 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 173 | 210 | 287 | 497 | 113 | 271 | 39 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Mets | — | 157 | 147 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 218 | 268 | 388 | 655 | 170 | 293 | 32 | 6 | 291 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 201 | 188 | 40 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 213 | 258 | 426 | 683 | 213 | 292 | 38 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 395 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 220 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 142 | 190 | 281 | 471 | 139 | 246 | 52 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 469 | 416 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 40 | 164 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 200 | 286 | 373 | 659 | 173 | 270 | 35 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 394 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 28 | 168 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 170 | 234 | 307 | 541 | 137 | 250 | 39 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 425 | 392 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 137 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 217 | 273 | 393 | 665 | 176 | 278 | 32 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 157 | 149 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 174 | 210 | 289 | 499 | 114 | 275 | 39 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2105 | 1937 | 357 | 74 | 7 | 73 | 131 | 827 | 25 | 26 | 10 | 184 | 245 | 343 | 588 | 158 | 271 | 39 | 6 | 256 | 59 | -102 | +1 | +0 | -23 | +46 | -7.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 111 | 23 | 2 | 23 | 40 | 255 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 186 | 246 | 346 | 592 | 161 | 272 | 39 | 6 | 256 | 59 | -31 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 157 PAwOBA .283 → .220 (−62)K% 31.8% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.85% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.73% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.53% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.033 | 17.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.31% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.033 | 9.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .283 → .220; ISO .170 → .119; BABIP .293 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 425 PAwOBA .356 → .286 (−70)K% 26.8% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.82% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 5.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.72% | ÷1.045 | ×0.940 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 19.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.49% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 6.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.24% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 6.54% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 112, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .356 → .286; ISO .231 → .181; BABIP .319 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATulsa Drillers · 277 PAwOBA .285 → .225 (−60)K% 30.3% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.32% | ÷0.954 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.50% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 18.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.47% | ÷1.048 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 5.39% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 110, 3B 85, K 91, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .225; ISO .161 → .130; BABIP .281 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 154 PAwOBA .347 → .268 (−79)K% 29.2% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.22% | ÷0.991 | ×1.340 | — | — | 39.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.948 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 10.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.47% | ÷1.043 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 13.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.935 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 9.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.06% | ÷0.969 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 6.78% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 110, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .347 → .268; ISO .215 → .174; BABIP .304 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AGreat Lakes Loons · 338 PAwOBA .309 → .242 (−67)K% 26.9% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷1.026 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.83% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.83% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×1.015 | 20.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.60% | ÷0.983 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.015 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | ×0.968 | ×1.015 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.55% | ÷1.100 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 95, 2B 97, 3B 105, K 105, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .309 → .242; ISO .132 → .096; BABIP .301 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 131 PAwOBA .506 → .402 (−104)K% 23.7% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.66% | ÷0.957 | ×1.340 | — | — | 33.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.21% | ÷1.066 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 8.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.05% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 2.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.19% | ÷1.025 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×1.027 | 14.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.39% | ÷1.076 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×1.027 | 9.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.019 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 18.99% | ÷1.058 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 16.96% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 105, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 91, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .506 → .402; ISO .491 → .400; BABIP .323 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AGreat Lakes Loons · 370 PAwOBA .290 → .201 (−90)K% 38.6% → 53.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.65% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 53.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.38% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.80% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×1.030 | 16.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.81% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×0.960 | ×1.030 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.013 | ×0.910 | ×0.960 | ×1.030 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.42% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 8.01% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 103, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .290 → .201; ISO .207 → .138; BABIP .274 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKOgden Raptors · 52 PAwOBA .343 → .212 (−131)K% 30.8% → 44.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 44.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.995 | 1.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 16.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 8.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.995 | 6.40% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .343 → .212; ISO .255 → .152; BABIP .344 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).