Lucius Fox
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AAA/ROK2 orgs | 270 | .245/.354/.376 | 5 | 19 | 70 | — | .212/.295/.321 | |
| 2022 | 25 | AAAWSH | 231 | .228/.306/.340 | 4 | 12 | 58 | — | .216/.271/.310 | |
| 2022 | 25 | MLBWSH | 28 | .080/.115/.080 | 0 | 1 | -53 | -0.4 | ||
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+WSH | 141 | .200/.270/.280 | 3 | 0 | 19 | — | .170/.219/.245 | |
| 2024 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 285 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 76 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 207 | 307 | 277 | 584 | 70 | 273 | 23 | 11 | 271 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 131 | 115 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 235 | 323 | 287 | 610 | 52 | 317 | 25 | 9 | 285 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 345 | 302 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 80 | 7 | 27 | 10 | 278 | 363 | 361 | 724 | 83 | 371 | 23 | 10 | 329 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 120 | 104 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 221 | 289 | 298 | 588 | 77 | 259 | 17 | 7 | 257 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 404 | 351 | 99 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 79 | 8 | 23 | 7 | 282 | 372 | 353 | 725 | 71 | 358 | 20 | 10 | 332 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 103 | 86 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 326 | 437 | 384 | 821 | 58 | 409 | 18 | 16 | 380 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 49 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 190 | 440 | 48 | 222 | 31 | 12 | 211 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 431 | 365 | 84 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 53 | 89 | 9 | 37 | 11 | 230 | 342 | 342 | 684 | 112 | 293 | 21 | 12 | 313 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 252 | 215 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 61 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 242 | 348 | 363 | 711 | 121 | 318 | 24 | 13 | 324 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | ROK | ACL Royals Blue | — | 18 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 444 | 571 | 1.016 | 286 | 429 | 33 | 22 | 443 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 28 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 80 | 115 | 80 | 195 | 125 | 32 | 4 | 90 | -53 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +1 | -0.4 | |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 231 | 206 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 61 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 228 | 306 | 340 | 645 | 112 | 305 | 26 | 10 | 292 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 29 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 286 | 200 | 486 | 333 | 34 | 10 | 228 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 71 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 250 | 230 | 480 | 66 | 225 | 30 | 10 | 218 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 41 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 293 | 410 | 703 | 154 | 308 | 27 | 5 | 312 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 28 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 80 | 115 | 80 | 195 | 125 | 32 | 4 | 90 | -53 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +1 | -0.4 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 297 | 55 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 99 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 185 | 258 | 253 | 510 | 67 | 262 | 30 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 131 | 117 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 197 | 277 | 248 | 525 | 51 | 293 | 35 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 345 | 312 | 75 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 112 | 7 | 27 | 10 | 240 | 307 | 304 | 612 | 64 | 357 | 32 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 120 | 106 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 289 | 311 | 601 | 75 | 266 | 19 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 404 | 362 | 86 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 114 | 8 | 23 | 7 | 238 | 312 | 301 | 613 | 64 | 334 | 28 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 49 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 208 | 182 | 390 | 45 | 220 | 37 | 8 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 431 | 379 | 76 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 110 | 9 | 37 | 11 | 201 | 290 | 293 | 583 | 92 | 265 | 26 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 252 | 224 | 48 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 74 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 214 | 296 | 312 | 609 | 98 | 302 | 29 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals Blue | — | 18 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 278 | 438 | 715 | 250 | 311 | 50 | 11 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 28 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 80 | 115 | 80 | 195 | 125 | 32 | 4 | 90 | -53 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +1 | -0.4 | |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 231 | 213 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 216 | 271 | 310 | 581 | 94 | 302 | 30 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 29 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 250 | 192 | 442 | 317 | 41 | 7 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 71 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 206 | 206 | 412 | 63 | 202 | 35 | 7 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 41 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 220 | 350 | 570 | 150 | 263 | 37 | 2 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 297 | 55 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 99 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 185 | 258 | 253 | 510 | 67 | 268 | 30 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 285 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 76 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 207 | 307 | 277 | 584 | 70 | 273 | 23 | 11 | 271 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 429 | 95 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 158 | 10 | 30 | 13 | 221 | 292 | 273 | 565 | 51 | 343 | 33 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 476 | 417 | 111 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 113 | 10 | 30 | 13 | 266 | 352 | 341 | 692 | 74 | 356 | 24 | 9 | 317 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 627 | 564 | 132 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 164 | 11 | 36 | 10 | 234 | 301 | 296 | 597 | 62 | 323 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 627 | 541 | 150 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 66 | 118 | 11 | 36 | 10 | 277 | 367 | 348 | 715 | 70 | 346 | 19 | 11 | 326 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 423 | 82 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 128 | 9 | 39 | 11 | 194 | 282 | 281 | 563 | 87 | 268 | 27 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 480 | 407 | 90 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 59 | 104 | 9 | 39 | 11 | 221 | 333 | 327 | 659 | 106 | 287 | 22 | 12 | 303 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 239 | 50 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 83 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 209 | 295 | 301 | 596 | 92 | 305 | 31 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 270 | 229 | 56 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 67 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 245 | 354 | 376 | 730 | 131 | 323 | 25 | 14 | 332 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 238 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 79 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 202 | 255 | 286 | 541 | 84 | 288 | 31 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 259 | 231 | 49 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 70 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 212 | 286 | 312 | 598 | 100 | 287 | 27 | 9 | 270 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 141 | 129 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 212 | 217 | 429 | 54 | 253 | 38 | 6 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 141 | 125 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 270 | 280 | 550 | 80 | 272 | 30 | 9 | 248 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 299 | 55 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 99 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 184 | 258 | 251 | 509 | 67 | 262 | 30 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 430 | 95 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 158 | 10 | 30 | 13 | 221 | 292 | 272 | 564 | 51 | 339 | 33 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 627 | 568 | 132 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 164 | 11 | 36 | 10 | 232 | 301 | 294 | 595 | 62 | 318 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 425 | 82 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 128 | 9 | 39 | 11 | 193 | 282 | 280 | 562 | 87 | 260 | 27 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 239 | 50 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 83 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 209 | 295 | 301 | 596 | 92 | 303 | 31 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 240 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 79 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 200 | 255 | 283 | 538 | 83 | 283 | 31 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 141 | 132 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 159 | 212 | 212 | 424 | 53 | 243 | 38 | 6 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 28 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 80 | 115 | 80 | 195 | 125 | 32 | 4 | 90 | 57 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +1 | -0.4 | ||
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 209 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 79 | 114 | 79 | 194 | 124 | 32 | 4 | 90 | 57 | -119 | +5 | -48 | +64 | +14 | -8.5 | ||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2584 | 2319 | 483 | 75 | 17 | 18 | 195 | 764 | 37 | 162 | 47 | 208 | 280 | 279 | 559 | 70 | 300 | 30 | 8 | 252 | 57 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +1 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 122 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 192 | 9 | 41 | 12 | 209 | 280 | 281 | 562 | 72 | 301 | 30 | 8 | 252 | 57 | -119 | +5 | -48 | +64 | +14 | -8.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 71 PAwOBA .216 → .175 (−41)K% 29.6% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.58% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.86% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 18.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.033 | ×0.860 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 1.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.115 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.73% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .216 → .175; ISO .066 → .048; BABIP .225 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 41 PAwOBA .303 → .233 (−70)K% 26.8% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.83% | ÷0.973 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.88% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 2.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.981 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 24.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.894 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.913 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 6.66% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .233; ISO .154 → .128; BABIP .308 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 29 PAwOBA .223 → .192 (−31)K% 34.5% → 42.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.48% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 31.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .223 → .192; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 231 PAwOBA .283 → .254 (−28)K% 26.4% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.41% | ÷1.049 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.45% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 23.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 4.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷0.913 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 1.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.76% | ÷1.084 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.84% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .283 → .254; ISO .112 → .094; BABIP .305 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 252 PAwOBA .317 → .272 (−45)K% 24.2% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.21% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.08% | ÷1.056 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 21.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 8.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷1.027 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.86% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 111, 2B 96, 3B 87, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .317 → .272; ISO .121 → .099; BABIP .318 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Royals Blue · 18 PAwOBA .432 → .272 (−160)K% 33.3% → 48.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 48.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 13.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 19.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 8.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 9.31% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .432 → .272; ISO .286 → .182; BABIP .429 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 431 PAwOBA .308 → .260 (−48)K% 20.6% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.65% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.30% | ÷0.963 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 9.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.09% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.65% | ÷0.978 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 19.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.028 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.90% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 2.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .308 → .260; ISO .112 → .093; BABIP .293 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAADurham Bulls · 49 PAwOBA .206 → .182 (−24)K% 30.6% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.61% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 18.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.025 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 3.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.128 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .206 → .182; ISO .048 → .047; BABIP .222 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).