Trevor Kelley

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 34 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	29	MIX2 levels	52	0	58	3.88	3.86	26.3%	7.7%	0.5	K 24.3% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.05
2023	30	MIX3 levels	38	6	49	5.33	5.37	18.0%	7.2%	-0.5	K 16.0% · BB 6.8% · FIP 5.34
2024	31	AAASEA	54	0	54	3.52	4.27	25.7%	13.3%	—	K 22.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.28
2027PROJ	34	MLBSEA	59	0	62	4.56	4.86	20.0%	10.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBSEA	3	0	3	4.88	5.14	19.4%	10.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	36	MLBSEA	—	—	0	5.19	5.44	18.7%	11.1%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

Whiff%36

xwOBA vs21

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Mark Serrano (age 33) · Juan Sandoval (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.56

FIP4.86

K%20.0%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.5

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p1015.9%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

FB+1.3

CT-1.2

SL-1.4

CH-1.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	6	0	7	28	8	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	1.29	1.59	—
2015	22	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	6	0	7	28	8	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	1.29	1.67	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	39	159	43	4	2	0%	1.8	19.3%	3.1%	16.3%	1.7%	1.83	2.79	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	39	159	43	4	2	0%	1.8	27.0%	2.5%	24.5%	1.3%	1.83	1.88	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	61	241	49	15	2	0%	1.6	15.9%	7.0%	8.9%	1.0%	2.36	3.21	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	61	241	49	15	2	0%	1.6	20.3%	6.2%	14.1%	0.8%	2.36	2.66	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	56	238	45	21	2	0%	1.4	15.9%	9.5%	6.4%	0.8%	2.88	3.39	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	56	238	45	21	2	0%	1.4	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	0.8%	2.88	3.08	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	74	308	69	23	10	0%	1.2	20.7%	7.1%	13.6%	3.2%	2.57	3.98	+0.5
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	74	308	69	23	10	0%	1.2	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	3.2%	2.57	3.93	+0.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	4	0	3	19	5	1	2	0%	0.8	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	10.5%	10.80	7.32	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	4	0	3	19	5	1	2	0%	0.8	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	10.5%	10.80	8.80	-0.2
2021	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	37	0	41	160	46	17	2	0%	1.1	25.3%	11.2%	14.1%	1.4%	1.52	3.13	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	37	0	41	160	46	17	2	0%	1.1	28.7%	10.6%	18.1%	1.2%	1.52	2.74	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	58	247	65	19	9	0%	1.1	24.3%	7.9%	16.4%	3.6%	3.88	4.05	+0.3
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	58	247	65	19	9	0%	1.1	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	3.6%	3.88	3.86	+0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	6	49	222	40	16	11	16%	1.3	16.0%	6.8%	9.2%	5.0%	5.33	5.34	-0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	6	49	222	40	16	11	16%	1.3	18.0%	7.2%	10.8%	5.0%	5.33	5.37	-0.5
2024	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	54	0	54	241	62	32	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	12.0%	10.2%	2.8%	3.52	4.28	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	54	0	54	241	62	32	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	12.0%	10.2%	2.8%	3.52	4.28	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	54	0	54	241	62	32	7	0%	1.0	25.7%	13.3%	12.4%	2.9%	3.52	4.27	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	3	51	235	45	20	15	7%	1.2	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	6.4%	6.75	6.36	-1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	SEA	59	0	62	262	52	26	9	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.2%	4.56	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	SEA	53	0	56	235	46	25	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.6%	8.8%	3.6%	4.88	5.14	-0.4
2029	36	MLB MLE	SEA	47	0	49	208	39	23	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	11.1%	7.6%	3.9%	5.19	5.44	-0.5
2030	37	MLB MLE	SEA	41	0	43	181	32	21	8	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.6%	6.2%	4.3%	5.53	5.79	-0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	SEA	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.6%	8.8%	3.6%	4.88	5.14	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	11.1%	7.6%	3.9%	5.19	5.44	—
2030	37	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.8%	11.6%	6.2%	4.3%	5.53	5.79	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	3	54	248	48	21	15	7%	1.2	19.2%	8.6%	10.5%	6.2%	6.64	6.00	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	11	200	923	179	78	56	7%	1.2	19.2%	8.6%	10.5%	6.2%	6.64	6.00	-3.4
Career	—	MLE		354	6	443	1863	373	150	48	2%	1.3	20.0%	8.1%	11.9%	2.6%	3.05	3.84	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	3	200	842	169	68	22	2%	1.3	20.0%	8.1%	11.9%	2.6%	3.05	3.84	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Kelley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	20.0%	10.1%	3.2%	—	5.43	18.7%	7.6%	148	+0.57	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	72
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	68
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	68
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	67
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	67
Scott Atchison R 2010 · 4.59 FIP	34	SU	4.59	16.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.263	2.98	15.7%	11.1%	127	-1.61	2.52	340	67
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	66
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	66
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	64
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	64
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	64
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	63
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	63
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	63
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	63
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	63
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	62
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	62
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	61
Jose Pina R 2019 · 5.28 FIP	33	SU	5.28	14.6%	6.8%	4.7%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	424	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	52	19.1%	10.4%	1.64	5.33
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*