Jerry Downs
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | A+Salem Red Sox | 471 | .233/.332/.391 | 15 | 3 | 55 | — | .179/.263/.301 |
| 2019 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 261 | .165/.256/.248 | 2 | 0 | 2 | — | .127/.202/.191 |
| 2022 | 28 | INTLIndios de May… | 70 | .186/.304/.339 | 2 | 0 | 85 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 131 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 275 | 406 | 382 | 788 | 107 | 324 | 17 | 14 | 358 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 136 | 117 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 370 | 444 | 815 | 171 | 354 | 24 | 8 | 363 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 43 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 366 | 281 | 647 | 94 | 231 | 19 | 7 | 304 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 471 | 407 | 95 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 34 | 92 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 233 | 332 | 391 | 723 | 157 | 264 | 20 | 7 | 326 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 176 | 153 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 272 | 275 | 546 | 98 | 263 | 32 | 7 | 252 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 85 | 77 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 224 | 195 | 418 | 52 | 186 | 21 | 7 | 201 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 70 | 59 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 304 | 339 | 643 | 153 | 180 | 11 | 10 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 141 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 213 | 306 | 298 | 604 | 85 | 255 | 24 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 136 | 121 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 289 | 306 | 595 | 99 | 309 | 32 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 43 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 317 | 212 | 529 | 61 | 171 | 28 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 471 | 419 | 75 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 136 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 179 | 263 | 301 | 564 | 122 | 223 | 29 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 176 | 157 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 70 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 220 | 217 | 436 | 76 | 216 | 40 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 85 | 79 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 165 | 139 | 304 | 38 | 151 | 32 | 5 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 141 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 213 | 306 | 298 | 604 | 85 | 272 | 24 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 131 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 275 | 406 | 382 | 788 | 107 | 324 | 17 | 14 | 358 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 154 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 295 | 286 | 581 | 91 | 290 | 31 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 179 | 149 | 38 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 41 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 369 | 409 | 779 | 154 | 324 | 23 | 8 | 349 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 471 | 419 | 75 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 136 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 179 | 263 | 301 | 564 | 122 | 227 | 29 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 471 | 407 | 95 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 34 | 92 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 233 | 332 | 391 | 723 | 157 | 264 | 20 | 7 | 326 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 261 | 236 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 97 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 198 | 182 | 380 | 59 | 196 | 37 | 5 | 172 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 261 | 230 | 38 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 75 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 256 | 248 | 504 | 83 | 234 | 29 | 7 | 236 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL MLE | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 70 | 59 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 304 | 339 | 643 | 153 | 180 | 11 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL RAW | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 70 | 59 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 304 | 339 | 643 | 153 | 180 | 11 | 10 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 143 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 210 | 306 | 294 | 600 | 84 | 255 | 24 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 155 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 295 | 284 | 579 | 90 | 276 | 31 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 471 | 420 | 75 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 136 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 179 | 263 | 300 | 563 | 121 | 223 | 29 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 261 | 237 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 97 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 198 | 181 | 379 | 59 | 195 | 37 | 5 | 172 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1144 | 1009 | 175 | 36 | 2 | 20 | 64 | 336 | 57 | 9 | 6 | 173 | 262 | 273 | 534 | 99 | 233 | 29 | 6 | 220 | 35 | -89 | -1 | +0 | -20 | +25 | -8.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 98 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 191 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 171 | 259 | 267 | 526 | 96 | 231 | 29 | 6 | 220 | 35 | -50 | -0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -4.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 176 PAwOBA .248 → .188 (−60)K% 32.4% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.39% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.39% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.98% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 3.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 14.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.158 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.953 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .248 → .188; ISO .098 → .069; BABIP .263 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Salem Red Sox · 85 PAwOBA .197 → .138 (−58)K% 21.2% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.18% | ÷0.958 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.06% | ÷0.968 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.86% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 10.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.78% | ÷1.070 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.080 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 101, 2B 114, 3B 94, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .197 → .138; ISO .052 → .033; BABIP .186 → .151. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Salem Red Sox · 471 PAwOBA .319 → .250 (−69)K% 19.5% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.53% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷0.939 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 4.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.52% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 4.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | ×0.978 | 17.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.102 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×0.978 | 3.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | ×1.012 | ×0.978 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 4.48% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 113, 2B 120, 3B 107, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .319 → .250; ISO .157 → .128; BABIP .264 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AGreenville Drive · 136 PAwOBA .357 → .268 (−89)K% 24.3% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.26% | ÷0.995 | ×1.340 | — | — | 32.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.09% | ÷1.020 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 5.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.15% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 3.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.62% | ÷0.999 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×0.980 | 20.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷0.972 | ×0.820 | ×1.013 | ×0.980 | 8.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.092 | ×0.940 | ×1.013 | ×0.980 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.534 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 1.87% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 207, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 118, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .357 → .268; ISO .171 → .113; BABIP .354 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGCL Red Sox · 43 PAwOBA .312 → .223 (−89)K% 18.6% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.60% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 4.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 13.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 9.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 9.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 8.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .312 → .223; ISO .094 → .069; BABIP .231 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKGCL Red Sox · 163 PAwOBA .354 → .262 (−92)K% 16.6% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 8.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.68% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×0.975 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×0.975 | 5.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 1.46% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .354 → .262; ISO .107 → .080; BABIP .324 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .