Nick Dini
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 28 | AAAKC | 98 | .303/.361/.494 | 4 | 1 | 79 | — | .242/.289/.385 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAANYM | 201 | .232/.323/.446 | 11 | 1 | 59 | — | .185/.254/.321 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAATB | 257 | .198/.358/.371 | 9 | 6 | 54 | — | .156/.276/.271 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 177 | 155 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 316 | 387 | 465 | 852 | 148 | 331 | 10 | 9 | 372 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 25 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 240 | 250 | 490 | 42 | 238 | 12 | 0 | 226 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 45 | 42 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 381 | 422 | 429 | 851 | 48 | 410 | 7 | 4 | 386 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 245 | 216 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 310 | 384 | 380 | 764 | 69 | 342 | 11 | 7 | 346 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 99 | 92 | 26 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 283 | 327 | 457 | 783 | 174 | 289 | 8 | 5 | 342 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 43 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 302 | 237 | 539 | 26 | 229 | 7 | 12 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 40 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 350 | 667 | 1.017 | 333 | 323 | 12 | 2 | 438 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 304 | 280 | 67 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 239 | 290 | 361 | 651 | 121 | 280 | 21 | 4 | 290 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | — | 64 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 274 | 357 | 631 | 161 | 243 | 28 | 6 | 277 | 77 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 213 | 186 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 296 | 373 | 565 | 938 | 269 | 288 | 14 | 10 | 401 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 98 | 89 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 303 | 361 | 494 | 855 | 191 | 338 | 18 | 5 | 375 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 201 | 177 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 323 | 446 | 770 | 215 | 231 | 18 | 10 | 342 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 257 | 202 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 64 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 198 | 358 | 371 | 730 | 173 | 235 | 25 | 17 | 333 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 64 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 274 | 357 | 631 | 161 | 243 | 28 | 6 | 277 | 73 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +1 | 0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 177 | 161 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 289 | 342 | 631 | 106 | 249 | 14 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 25 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 240 | 250 | 490 | 42 | 217 | 16 | 0 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 45 | 43 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 279 | 311 | 302 | 613 | 23 | 320 | 9 | 2 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 245 | 221 | 58 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 262 | 326 | 308 | 634 | 45 | 294 | 13 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 99 | 94 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 255 | 286 | 404 | 690 | 149 | 262 | 11 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 40 | 39 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 275 | 487 | 762 | 231 | 284 | 15 | 2 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 304 | 284 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 80 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 187 | 230 | 275 | 505 | 88 | 229 | 26 | 3 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 64 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 274 | 357 | 631 | 161 | 243 | 28 | 6 | 283 | 77 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 213 | 193 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 238 | 297 | 440 | 737 | 202 | 236 | 18 | 7 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 98 | 91 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 289 | 385 | 673 | 143 | 275 | 22 | 3 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 201 | 184 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 254 | 321 | 574 | 136 | 205 | 22 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 257 | 218 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 76 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 156 | 276 | 271 | 546 | 115 | 195 | 30 | 11 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 177 | 161 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 289 | 342 | 631 | 106 | 257 | 14 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK RAW | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 177 | 155 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 316 | 387 | 465 | 852 | 148 | 331 | 10 | 9 | 372 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 70 | 67 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 286 | 284 | 569 | 30 | 288 | 11 | 1 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 70 | 66 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 318 | 357 | 364 | 721 | 45 | 350 | 9 | 3 | 329 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 387 | 357 | 91 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 255 | 305 | 328 | 633 | 73 | 286 | 13 | 4 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 387 | 346 | 101 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 37 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 292 | 360 | 384 | 745 | 92 | 315 | 10 | 7 | 336 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 323 | 63 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 86 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 195 | 235 | 300 | 536 | 105 | 237 | 25 | 3 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 344 | 319 | 80 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 69 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 251 | 297 | 398 | 695 | 147 | 285 | 20 | 4 | 307 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 277 | 249 | 57 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 18 | 57 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 229 | 292 | 422 | 713 | 193 | 246 | 21 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 277 | 242 | 66 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 25 | 47 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 273 | 351 | 517 | 867 | 244 | 279 | 17 | 9 | 372 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 98 | 91 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 289 | 385 | 673 | 143 | 284 | 22 | 3 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 98 | 89 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 303 | 361 | 494 | 855 | 191 | 338 | 18 | 5 | 375 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 201 | 184 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 254 | 321 | 574 | 136 | 205 | 22 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Mets | — | 201 | 177 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 323 | 446 | 770 | 215 | 231 | 18 | 10 | 342 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 257 | 218 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 76 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 156 | 276 | 271 | 546 | 115 | 201 | 30 | 11 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 257 | 202 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 64 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 198 | 358 | 371 | 730 | 173 | 235 | 25 | 17 | 333 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 177 | 163 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 233 | 289 | 337 | 626 | 104 | 249 | 14 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 70 | 67 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 286 | 284 | 569 | 30 | 283 | 11 | 1 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 387 | 358 | 91 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 254 | 305 | 327 | 632 | 73 | 285 | 13 | 4 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 324 | 63 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 86 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 194 | 235 | 299 | 535 | 105 | 235 | 25 | 3 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 277 | 253 | 57 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 18 | 57 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 225 | 292 | 415 | 707 | 190 | 238 | 21 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 98 | 92 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 239 | 289 | 380 | 669 | 141 | 275 | 22 | 3 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 201 | 182 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 254 | 324 | 578 | 137 | 205 | 22 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 257 | 219 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 76 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 155 | 276 | 269 | 545 | 114 | 195 | 30 | 11 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 64 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 274 | 357 | 631 | 161 | 243 | 28 | 6 | 277 | 68 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +1 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 569 | 111 | 30 | 0 | 20 | 41 | 183 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 273 | 353 | 626 | 158 | 242 | 28 | 6 | 277 | 68 | -21 | +0 | -7 | +50 | +14 | 3.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1811 | 1650 | 356 | 64 | 0 | 42 | 100 | 367 | 39 | 37 | 8 | 216 | 277 | 331 | 608 | 115 | 250 | 20 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +1 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 128 | 23 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 132 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 216 | 277 | 331 | 608 | 115 | 251 | 20 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -21 | +0 | -7 | +50 | +14 | 3.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAADurham Bulls · 257 PAwOBA .329 → .248 (−81)K% 24.9% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.90% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.12% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 11.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | ×0.980 | ×0.972 | 14.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×0.972 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.137 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 3.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .329 → .248; ISO .173 → .117; BABIP .235 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 201 PAwOBA .333 → .256 (−77)K% 17.9% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.91% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.45% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.73% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.973 | ×0.982 | 16.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.55% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×0.982 | 2.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.80% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 5.19% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .333 → .256; ISO .215 → .146; BABIP .231 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 98 PAwOBA .368 → .285 (−83)K% 18.4% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.37% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.10% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.35% | ÷1.056 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 21.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.63% | ÷1.027 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.81% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 111, 2B 96, 3B 87, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .368 → .285; ISO .191 → .134; BABIP .338 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 213 PAwOBA .392 → .314 (−78)K% 13.6% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.62% | ÷0.971 | ×1.290 | — | — | 18.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.39% | ÷1.065 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 6.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.75% | ÷1.024 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 16.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.01% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.28% | ÷1.023 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 6.43% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 108, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .392 → .314; ISO .269 → .213; BABIP .288 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 304 PAwOBA .285 → .222 (−62)K% 21.1% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.95% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 2.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.69% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 19.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.63% | ÷1.113 | ×0.840 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.940 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.93% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 109, 2B 123, 3B 91, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .285 → .222; ISO .121 → .091; BABIP .280 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 40 PAwOBA .424 → .343 (−81)K% 12.5% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.007 | ×1.290 | — | — | 16.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.50% | ÷1.018 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 1.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.020 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.033 | 16.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.936 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 10.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.101 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 6.46% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .424 → .343; ISO .333 → .252; BABIP .323 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 245 PAwOBA .339 → .286 (−53)K% 10.6% → 13.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.61% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.53% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.67% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 3.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.47% | ÷1.051 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 25.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.74% | ÷1.091 | ×0.840 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 3.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.114 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .339 → .286; ISO .069 → .053; BABIP .342 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ALexington Legends · 99 PAwOBA .336 → .287 (−49)K% 8.1% → 10.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.08% | ÷0.991 | ×1.340 | — | — | 10.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.05% | ÷1.053 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 3.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.936 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×0.980 | 16.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.90% | ÷0.982 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×0.980 | 9.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.125 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.062 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 87, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .336 → .287; ISO .174 → .140; BABIP .289 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).