Justin Lawrence

P Washington Nationals

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	57	60	6.75	5.20	15.8%	11.6%	-0.5	K 16.1% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.76
2025	30	MIX3 levels	25	25	2.88	1.78	34.6%	12.5%	0.8	K 33.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 1.39
2026	31	MIX2 levels	59	54	6.67	5.23	26.9%	16.0%	-0.4	K 25.4% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	32	MLBWSH	53	56	5.15	5.07	24.5%	14.6%	-0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBWSH	47	49	5.27	5.35	23.7%	15.0%	-0.4
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBWSH	40	42	5.50	5.65	22.8%	15.5%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo65

K%61

Whiff%56

xwOBA vs10

CompsMike Broadway (age 31) · Jeff Fulchino (age 31) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.15

FIP5.07

K%24.5%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p6124.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.380

SI (43%)

SL (44%)

FB-3.0 (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	6	0	6	29	3	1	1	0%	0.9	10.3%	3.4%	6.9%	3.4%	9.53	4.56	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	6	0	6	29	3	1	1	0%	0.9	10.3%	3.4%	6.9%	3.4%	9.53	4.86	—
2016	21	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	26	0	36	170	23	14	4	0%	1.4	10.0%	9.7%	0.3%	2.5%	7.18	4.85	—
2016	21	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	26	0	36	170	23	14	4	0%	1.4	13.5%	8.2%	5.3%	2.4%	7.18	4.42	—
2017	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	0	16	63	20	4	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	1.7%	1.65	2.98	—
2017	22	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	16	0	16	63	20	4	1	0%	1.0	31.7%	6.3%	25.4%	1.6%	1.65	2.18	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	55	0	54	223	62	27	2	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.9%	7.5%	0.7%	2.65	3.46	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	55	0	54	223	62	27	2	0%	1.0	27.8%	12.1%	15.7%	0.9%	2.65	2.79	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	37	185	32	29	4	0%	1.0	14.2%	17.0%	-2.8%	2.1%	8.76	5.21	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	37	185	32	29	4	0%	1.0	17.3%	15.7%	1.6%	2.2%	8.76	5.13	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	49	228	47	30	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.4%	5.6%	1.2%	6.06	3.87	+0.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	49	228	47	30	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	13.2%	7.5%	1.3%	6.06	3.81	+0.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	72	309	97	35	5	0%	1.1	29.5%	11.5%	18.0%	1.5%	4.62	2.91	+1.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	72	309	97	35	5	0%	1.1	31.4%	11.3%	20.1%	1.6%	4.62	2.77	+1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	69	0	75	326	78	32	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	1.4%	3.72	3.07	+1.3
2023	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	69	0	75	326	78	32	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	1.5%	3.72	3.17	+1.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	60	284	45	33	9	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.5%	4.7%	2.9%	6.75	4.76	-0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	60	284	45	33	9	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.5%	4.7%	2.9%	6.75	4.76	-0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	60	284	45	33	9	0%	1.1	15.8%	11.6%	4.2%	3.2%	6.75	5.20	-0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	25	104	36	13	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	8.7%	24.6%	0.0%	2.88	1.39	+1.0
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	25	104	36	13	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	8.7%	24.6%	0.0%	2.88	1.39	+1.0
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	25	104	36	13	0	0%	1.0	34.6%	12.5%	22.1%	0.0%	2.88	1.78	+0.8
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	54	268	72	43	10	0%	0.9	25.4%	15.4%	9.9%	3.8%	6.67	4.98	-0.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	54	268	72	43	10	0%	0.9	25.4%	15.4%	9.9%	3.8%	6.67	4.98	-0.3
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	54	268	72	43	10	0%	0.9	26.9%	16.0%	10.8%	3.7%	6.67	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			236	0	246	1128	254	137	26	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	2.3%	5.34	4.08	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	WSH	53	0	56	236	58	34	8	0%	1.1	24.5%	14.6%	10.0%	3.3%	5.15	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	49	0	52	217	51	33	8	0%	1.1	23.7%	15.0%	8.7%	3.6%	5.27	5.35	-0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	WSH	45	0	47	198	45	31	8	0%	1.0	22.8%	15.5%	7.3%	3.9%	5.50	5.65	-0.6
2030	35	MLB MLE	WSH	40	0	42	178	39	29	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	16.1%	5.8%	4.2%	5.79	5.99	-0.7
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	47	0	49	207	49	31	7	0%	1.0	23.7%	15.0%	8.7%	3.6%	5.27	5.35	-0.4
2029	34	MLB CTX	WSH	40	0	42	177	40	28	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	15.5%	7.3%	3.9%	5.50	5.65	-0.5
2030	35	MLB CTX	WSH	34	0	36	152	33	24	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	16.1%	5.8%	4.2%	5.79	5.99	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		358	0	374	1667	377	220	47	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.2%	9.4%	2.8%	5.39	4.41	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	892	202	118	25	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.2%	9.4%	2.8%	5.39	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		467	0	485	2189	470	266	42	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	1.9%	5.27	3.88	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		193	0	200	903	194	110	17	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	1.9%	5.27	3.88	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Lawrence (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	24.5%	14.6%	3.3%	—	5.64	22.8%	7.3%	140	+0.57	—	—	—
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	79
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	79
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	77
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	76
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	75
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	74
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	74
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	72
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	70
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	69
Nate Jones R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	32	SU	4.09	23.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.279	5.85	21.4%	13.8%	38	+1.76	2.57	307	69
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	68
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	68
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	67
Kiko Calero R 2007 · 3.88 FIP	32	SU	3.88	16.8%	10.3%	1.6%	.326	2.27	28.9%	18.0%	60	-1.61	2.27	298	67
Antonio Guzman R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	31	SU	4.96	19.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	254	67
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	67
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	66
Rafael Martín R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	20.5%	10.7%	3.7%	.265	3.96	21.3%	15.8%	110	-0.78	2.94	227	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	55	22.9%	13.9%	1.12	5.37
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82