Chance Adams

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	26	MIX2 levels	6	3	6	8.53	9.89	30.0%	10.0%	—	K 30.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 9.15
2023	28	AAACOL	31	0	33	3.86	4.32	15.0%	7.1%	—	K 12.9% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.45
2024	29	AAACOL	46	3	57	6.44	3.97	16.0%	10.4%	—	K 13.8% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	32	MLBCOL	61	0	64	5.12	5.19	15.2%	10.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBCOL	21	0	22	5.24	5.38	15.2%	10.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBCOL	16	0	17	5.42	5.60	14.9%	10.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019

K%25

FB Velo11

Whiff%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsMarco Quevedo (age 32) · Juan Omar Espinoza (age 32) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.12

FIP5.19

K%15.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%5.1%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p1018.1%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.380

CH-0.8

FB-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	26	105	32	6	0	0%	2.6	21.6%	4.0%	17.6%	0.0%	2.10	1.79	—
2015	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	26	105	32	6	0	0%	2.6	30.5%	5.7%	24.8%	0.0%	2.10	1.31	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	127	495	144	39	9	96%	5.1	23.0%	8.8%	14.2%	2.4%	2.33	3.58	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	127	495	144	39	9	96%	5.1	29.1%	7.9%	21.2%	1.8%	2.33	2.68	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	150	605	135	58	11	100%	5.6	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	1.7%	2.45	3.71	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	150	605	135	58	11	100%	5.6	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	1.8%	2.45	3.41	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	24	121	528	117	60	19	80%	4.0	20.1%	11.9%	8.2%	3.4%	4.92	4.78	+0.2
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	24	121	528	117	60	19	80%	4.0	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	3.6%	4.92	4.70	+0.3
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	107	487	103	49	18	48%	3.5	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	3.6%	5.55	4.80	-0.3
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	15	107	487	103	49	18	48%	3.5	21.1%	10.1%	11.1%	3.7%	5.55	4.74	-0.2
2020	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	6	0	9	40	6	0	1	0%	1.4	15.0%	0.0%	15.0%	2.5%	9.35	3.21	+0.1
2020	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	6	0	9	40	6	0	1	0%	1.4	15.0%	0.0%	15.0%	2.5%	9.35	3.22	+0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	6	30	9	3	4	50%	1.1	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	13.3%	8.53	9.15	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	6	30	9	3	4	50%	1.1	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	13.3%	8.53	9.89	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	31	0	33	140	21	10	4	0%	1.1	12.9%	6.4%	6.5%	3.0%	3.86	4.45	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	31	0	33	140	21	10	4	0%	1.1	15.0%	7.1%	7.9%	2.9%	3.86	4.32	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	46	3	57	268	43	28	4	7%	1.2	13.8%	9.4%	4.4%	1.5%	6.44	3.95	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	46	3	57	268	43	28	4	7%	1.2	13.8%	9.4%	4.4%	1.5%	6.44	3.95	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	46	3	57	268	43	28	4	7%	1.2	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	1.5%	6.44	3.97	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	1	42	198	33	15	11	5%	1.9	16.7%	7.6%	9.1%	5.6%	8.42	6.03	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	COL	61	0	64	270	41	27	8	0%	1.0	15.2%	10.1%	5.1%	3.1%	5.12	5.19	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	COL	56	0	59	248	38	26	8	0%	1.0	15.2%	10.4%	4.7%	3.4%	5.24	5.38	-0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	COL	51	0	53	225	34	24	8	0%	1.0	14.9%	10.8%	4.0%	3.7%	5.42	5.60	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	COL	21	0	22	93	14	10	3	0%	1.0	15.2%	10.4%	4.7%	3.4%	5.24	5.38	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	COL	16	0	17	72	11	8	3	0%	1.1	14.9%	10.8%	4.0%	3.7%	5.42	5.60	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	1	80	362	58	32	17	2%	1.4	15.9%	9.0%	7.0%	4.6%	6.93	5.43	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		147	2	200	899	144	80	42	2%	1.4	15.9%	9.0%	7.0%	4.6%	6.93	5.43	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		212	96	636	2698	523	260	71	45%	3.0	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	2.6%	3.99	4.13	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	30	200	848	164	82	22	45%	3.0	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	2.6%	3.99	4.13	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chance Adams (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	15.2%	10.1%	3.1%	—	5.48	15.0%	4.4%	112	+0.29	—	—	—
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	81
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	78
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	77
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	75
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	74
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	73
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	72
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	69
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	468	69
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	68
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	67
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	65
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	65
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	64
Ramon Delgado R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	30	SW	4.31	11.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	135	62
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	61
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	60
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	59
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	54	15.4%	9.8%	1.48	5.86
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*