Alexis Díaz

P Round Rock Express

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 224 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MLBCIN	60	56	3.99	4.13	22.7%	12.4%	0.3
2025	28	MIX2 levels	45	43	6.65	6.15	22.6%	15.4%	-0.8	K 20.6% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.98
2026	29	AAATEX	44	45	2.58	3.48	28.6%	17.6%	—	K 24.6% · BB 15.8% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	30	MLBTEX	54	57	4.82	5.05	23.3%	15.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBTEX	19	20	5.10	5.29	22.5%	15.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBTEX	26	27	5.37	5.54	21.7%	16.0%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%48

FB Velo36

K%35

xwOBA vs10

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.82

FIP5.05

K%23.3%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.384

FB-0.6 (60%)

SL-6.2 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	9	0	13	56	11	5	1	0%	1.4	13.4%	11.2%	2.2%	2.5%	1.38	4.76	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	9	0	13	56	11	5	1	0%	1.4	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	1.8%	1.38	3.56	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	13	4	31	139	40	13	2	31%	2.4	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	2.0%	4.94	4.03	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	13	4	31	139	40	13	2	31%	2.4	28.8%	9.4%	19.4%	1.4%	4.94	2.62	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	Greeneville Reds	11	9	54	232	67	18	6	82%	4.9	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	3.6%	3.02	4.66	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Greeneville Reds	11	9	54	232	67	18	6	82%	4.9	28.9%	7.8%	21.1%	2.6%	3.02	3.06	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	5	59	270	77	29	4	19%	2.2	21.1%	12.8%	8.4%	2.1%	5.19	4.09	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	5	59	270	77	29	4	19%	2.2	28.5%	10.7%	17.8%	1.5%	5.19	2.85	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	35	0	42	180	70	18	2	0%	1.2	31.5%	11.0%	20.5%	1.4%	3.83	2.60	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	35	0	42	180	70	18	2	0%	1.2	38.9%	10.0%	28.9%	1.1%	3.83	1.68	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	59	0	64	255	83	30	5	0%	1.1	32.5%	11.8%	20.8%	1.8%	1.84	2.84	+1.3
2022	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	59	0	64	255	83	30	5	0%	1.1	32.5%	11.8%	20.8%	2.0%	1.84	2.93	+1.2
2023	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	67	286	86	36	4	0%	0.9	30.1%	12.6%	17.5%	1.3%	3.07	2.87	+1.4
2023	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	67	286	86	36	4	0%	0.9	30.1%	12.6%	17.5%	1.4%	3.07	2.92	+1.3
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	56	242	55	30	6	0%	0.9	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.3%	3.99	4.01	+0.4
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	56	242	55	30	6	0%	0.9	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.3%	3.99	4.01	+0.4
2024	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	56	242	55	30	6	0%	0.9	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.5%	3.99	4.13	+0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	43	208	47	32	10	0%	1.0	20.6%	14.4%	6.2%	5.1%	6.65	5.98	-0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	43	208	47	32	10	0%	1.0	20.6%	14.4%	6.2%	5.1%	6.65	5.98	-0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	43	208	47	32	10	0%	1.0	22.6%	15.4%	7.2%	4.8%	6.65	6.15	-0.8
2026	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	44	0	45	199	57	35	2	0%	1.0	24.6%	15.8%	8.8%	1.1%	2.58	3.63	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	44	0	45	199	57	35	2	0%	1.0	24.6%	15.8%	8.8%	1.1%	2.58	3.63	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	44	0	45	199	57	35	2	0%	1.0	28.6%	17.6%	11.1%	1.0%	2.58	3.48	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			208	0	205	868	241	108	21	0%	1.0	27.8%	12.4%	15.3%	2.4%	3.38	3.66	+2.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TEX	54	0	57	241	56	37	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	15.2%	8.0%	2.9%	4.82	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	51	0	53	225	51	35	7	0%	1.0	22.5%	15.6%	6.9%	3.2%	5.10	5.29	-0.4
2029	32	MLB MLE	TEX	47	0	49	208	45	33	7	0%	1.0	21.7%	16.0%	5.7%	3.4%	5.37	5.54	-0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	19	0	20	84	19	13	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.6%	6.9%	3.2%	5.10	5.29	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	TEX	26	0	27	114	25	18	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	16.0%	5.7%	3.4%	5.37	5.54	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		252	0	252	1065	284	139	28	0%	1.0	26.7%	13.1%	13.6%	2.6%	3.73	3.92	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	0	200	846	226	110	22	0%	1.0	26.7%	13.1%	13.6%	2.6%	3.73	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		374	18	475	2067	510	257	47	5%	1.3	24.7%	12.4%	12.2%	2.3%	3.69	3.85	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	8	200	870	215	108	20	5%	1.3	24.7%	12.4%	12.2%	2.3%	3.69	3.85	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexis Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	23.3%	15.2%	2.9%	—	5.41	22.1%	6.4%	102	+0.36	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	74
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	72
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	72
AJ Ramos R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	27.9%	12.8%	2.7%	.288	5.02	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.16	2.55	410	70
Tyler Yates R 2008 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	19.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.293	5.06	16.1%	5.4%	12	+1.16	3.23	248	68
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	68
Jason Frasor R 2008 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	20.2%	13.5%	1.9%	.239	3.13	23.2%	15.9%	181	-1.03	2.71	647	68
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.94	409	67
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	67
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	67
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	67
Troy Percival R 2000 · 4.46 FIP	30	SU	4.46	22.2%	11.8%	3.2%	.252	3.15	28.2%	18.8%	163	-1.31	2.15	709	67
Dennis Sarfate R 2009 · 4.81 FIP	28	SU	4.81	19.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	66
Joel Hanrahan R 2012 · 4.54 FIP	30	SU	4.54	26.4%	14.2%	3.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.08	397	65
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	65
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	65
Kyle Snyder R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	16.9%	12.4%	2.9%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	236	65
Taylor Williams R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	30	SU	5.96	19.9%	14.1%	5.0%	.261	3.79	18.8%	9.0%	101	-2.17	2.51	309	65
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	61	25.5%	14.1%	1.06	4.13
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Marshall Bridges ('59-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	49	26.7%*	12.3%*	0.88*	4.15*