JT Brubaker

P San Francisco Giants

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 197 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX4 levels	8	5	17	2.70	5.02	14.1%	12.5%	—	K 14.1% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.21
2025	31	MIX4 levels	26	9	61	3.10	3.46	19.0%	10.3%	0.8	K 18.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.78
2026	32	MLBSF	41	1	60	3.58	4.18	15.6%	10.4%	0.3
2027PROJ	33	MLBSF	11	11	65	4.49	4.71	16.8%	10.2%	0.1
2028PROJ	34	MLBSF	10	10	59	4.81	5.02	15.9%	10.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ	35	MLBSF	9	9	53	5.14	5.35	15.0%	11.2%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo32

xwOBA vs25

Whiff%19

K%10

CompsMarco Quevedo (age 32) · Osvaldo Fernandez (age 32) · Jared Fernandez (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.49

FIP4.71

K%16.8%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5055

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p1920.9%

p1015.6%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

CH+1.8 (14%)

FB+1.6 (51%)

SI (45%)

CU (9%)

SL-2.0 (26%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	130	560	120	46	15	100%	5.0	16.1%	9.6%	6.5%	3.2%	4.44	4.70	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	130	560	120	46	15	100%	5.0	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	2.7%	4.44	3.82	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	26	24	130	576	109	45	9	92%	5.0	15.3%	8.6%	6.7%	1.8%	4.44	3.89	—
2017	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	26	24	130	576	109	45	9	92%	5.0	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	1.6%	4.44	3.36	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	154	647	131	44	8	100%	5.5	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	1.4%	2.81	3.29	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	154	647	131	44	8	100%	5.5	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	1.2%	2.81	2.93	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	4	4	21	86	20	4	2	100%	5.2	20.5%	4.9%	15.6%	2.7%	2.57	3.46	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	4	4	21	86	20	4	2	100%	5.2	23.3%	4.7%	18.6%	2.3%	2.57	3.00	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	9	47	205	48	17	6	82%	4.3	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	3.2%	4.94	3.91	+0.6
2020	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	9	47	205	48	17	6	82%	4.3	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	2.9%	4.94	3.80	+0.6
2021	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	24	24	124	538	129	37	28	100%	5.2	24.0%	6.9%	17.1%	5.6%	5.36	5.03	-0.2
2021	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	24	24	124	538	129	37	28	100%	5.2	24.0%	6.9%	17.1%	5.2%	5.36	4.85	+0.1
2022	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	144	646	147	54	17	100%	5.1	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.8%	4.69	3.80	+1.9
2022	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	144	646	147	54	17	100%	5.1	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.6%	4.69	3.72	+2.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	5	17	64	9	8	2	62%	2.1	14.1%	12.5%	1.6%	3.1%	2.70	5.21	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	5	17	64	9	8	2	62%	2.1	14.1%	12.5%	1.6%	3.1%	2.70	5.21	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	5	17	64	9	8	2	62%	2.1	14.1%	12.5%	1.6%	3.1%	2.70	5.02	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	9	61	242	46	25	3	35%	2.3	18.0%	10.0%	8.0%	1.7%	3.10	3.78	+0.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	9	61	242	46	25	3	35%	2.3	18.0%	10.0%	8.0%	1.7%	3.10	3.78	+0.6
2025	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	9	61	242	46	25	3	35%	2.3	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	1.2%	3.10	3.46	+0.8
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	41	1	60	250	39	26	5	2%	1.5	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	2.2%	3.58	4.29	+0.2
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	41	1	60	250	39	26	5	2%	1.5	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	2.2%	3.58	4.29	+0.2
2026	32	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	41	1	60	250	39	26	5	2%	1.5	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	2.0%	3.58	4.18	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			121	63	405	1756	385	145	56	52%	3.3	21.9%	8.3%	13.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.07	+4.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	SF	11	11	65	274	46	28	7	100%	5.9	16.8%	10.2%	6.7%	2.5%	4.49	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	59	250	40	27	7	100%	5.9	15.9%	10.7%	5.3%	2.8%	4.81	5.02	-0.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	53	224	34	25	7	100%	5.9	15.0%	11.2%	3.8%	3.1%	5.14	5.35	-0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	59	249	40	27	7	100%	5.9	15.9%	10.7%	5.3%	2.8%	4.81	5.02	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	53	224	33	25	7	100%	5.9	15.0%	11.2%	3.8%	3.1%	5.14	5.35	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	82	517	2230	458	197	70	59%	3.7	20.6%	8.8%	11.7%	3.1%	4.75	4.20	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	32	200	863	177	76	27	58%	3.7	20.6%	8.8%	11.7%	3.1%	4.75	4.20	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		222	158	888	3814	724	320	106	71%	4.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.12	4.08	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	36	200	859	163	72	24	71%	4.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.12	4.08	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JT Brubaker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	16.8%	10.2%	2.5%	—	5.18	15.5%	4.5%	112	+0.47	—	—	—
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	73
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	70
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	69
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	69
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	63
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	62
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	62
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	62
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	60
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	58
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	57
Salvador Valdez R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	12.8%	7.5%	1.1%	.310	3.99	11.5%	4.9%	138	+0.39	3.60	326	57
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	56
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	56
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	56
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	56
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	56
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	378	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	20.1%	9.1%	1.19	4.72
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Dustin McGowan ('17)	3.3	65	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.50