Scott Effross
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 202 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 53 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114104vR 95
ERA4.04
FIP4.15
K%14.7%
BB%4.8%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.4
Whiff%
p1015.9%
K%
p1011.8%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
SI (50%)
CH-1.0 (12%)
SL-1.6 (33%)
FB-1.6 (54%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 5 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.0% | 0.0% | 24.0% | 4.0% | 4.05 | 3.27 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 5 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.0% | 0.0% | 24.0% | 4.0% | 4.05 | 3.25 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.2% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 0.5% | 3.23 | 2.77 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.8% | 5.2% | 16.6% | 0.4% | 3.23 | 2.12 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 42 | 2 | 79 | 350 | 74 | 25 | 1 | 5% | 1.9 | 16.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 0.4% | 3.40 | 2.99 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 42 | 2 | 79 | 350 | 74 | 25 | 1 | 5% | 1.9 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 0.3% | 3.40 | 2.34 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 44 | 0 | 63 | 288 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 5.97 | 4.39 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 44 | 0 | 63 | 288 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 5.97 | 3.54 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 1 | 52 | 216 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 4% | 1.9 | 11.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 4.33 | 3.49 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 1 | 52 | 216 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 4% | 1.9 | 15.3% | 4.2% | 11.1% | 1.4% | 4.33 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 2 | 75 | 297 | 84 | 16 | 10 | 4% | 1.7 | 25.1% | 5.7% | 19.4% | 3.3% | 3.46 | 3.52 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 2 | 75 | 297 | 84 | 16 | 10 | 4% | 1.7 | 28.3% | 5.4% | 22.9% | 3.4% | 3.46 | 3.23 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 1 | 58 | 235 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 27.1% | 5.2% | 21.8% | 1.2% | 2.81 | 2.15 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 1 | 58 | 235 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 26.4% | 5.1% | 21.3% | 1.7% | 2.81 | 2.48 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 0 | 39 | 151 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 1.6% | 2.79 | 3.17 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 0 | 39 | 151 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 15.9% | 2.0% | 2.79 | 3.13 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 43 | 1 | 45 | 211 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 2% | 1.0 | 13.8% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 1.0% | 6.65 | 3.17 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 43 | 1 | 45 | 211 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 2% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 10.9% | 0.9% | 6.65 | 2.90 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 23 | 1 | 32 | 137 | 28 | 9 | 4 | 4% | 1.4 | 16.9% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 3.62 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | DET | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 33 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.7% | 4.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | DET | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 4.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 4.15 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | DET | — | — | 85 | 361 | 61 | 20 | 9 | — | — | 16.9% | 5.5% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 4.22 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | DET | — | — | 5 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 14.7% | 4.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 3.77 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | DET | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 30 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.7% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | DET | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 27 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | DET | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | DET | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.7% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | DET | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | DET | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 134 | 1 | 134 | 557 | 118 | 30 | 13 | 1% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 3.91 | 3.27 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 1 | 200 | 832 | 176 | 45 | 19 | 1% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 3.91 | 3.27 | +5.0 | ||
| Career | — | 364 | 8 | 514 | 2181 | 401 | 136 | 38 | 2% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 1.7% | 3.99 | 3.30 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 3 | 200 | 849 | 156 | 53 | 15 | 2% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 1.7% | 3.99 | 3.30 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Scott Effross (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.15 | 14.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | — | 4.73 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 132 | +0.58 | — | — | — |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.86 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | .333 | 3.42 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.44 | 1.87 | 407 | 83 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 79 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 78 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.15 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 131 | 78 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 77 |
| Matt Belisle R 2029 · 3.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.16 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.7% | .300 | 3.49 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.33 | 2.51 | 174 | 76 |
| Esteban Haro R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.81 | 13.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% | .386 | 3.62 | 9.5% | 3.9% | 39 | -0.19 | 3.62 | 164 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 76 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.70 | 11.8% | 6.3% | 1.4% | .254 | 2.10 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 48 | -1.60 | 2.10 | 126 | 76 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 75 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 75 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.95 | 14.7% | 4.9% | 2.7% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 145 | 75 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 75 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 12.3% | 5.6% | 1.8% | .265 | 4.08 | 12.5% | 5.9% | 144 | +0.30 | 3.21 | 209 | 75 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 74 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 74 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 74 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.71 | 10.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | .285 | 5.32 | 11.2% | 5.1% | 180 | +1.61 | 3.71 | 257 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 73 |
| Joe Smith R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.39 | 18.4% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .253 | 2.78 | 28.4% | 23.0% | 125 | -1.61 | 1.86 | 309 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 1.10 | 4.40 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Brandon Kintzler ('21) | 6 | 50 | 16.2% | 6.3% | 0.91 | 3.57 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Alex Claudio ('21) | 5 | 59 | 16.3% | 6.1% | 0.76 | 3.66 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |