Scott Effross — OGILVIE

Scott Effross P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA4.03

FIP4.13

K%14.2%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.4

Whiff%

p1015.9%

p1011.8%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

SI (50%)

CH-1.0 (12%)

SL-1.6 (33%)

FB-1.6 (54%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	5	0	7	25	6	0	1	0%	1.3	24.0%	0.0%	24.0%	4.0%	4.05	3.27	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	5	0	7	25	6	0	1	0%	1.3	24.0%	0.0%	24.0%	4.0%	4.05	3.25	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	64	271	59	14	1	0%	1.6	16.2%	6.1%	10.1%	0.5%	3.23	2.77	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	64	271	59	14	1	0%	1.6	21.8%	5.2%	16.6%	0.4%	3.23	2.12	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	42	2	79	350	74	25	1	5%	1.9	16.3%	8.2%	8.1%	0.4%	3.40	2.98	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	42	2	79	350	74	25	1	5%	1.9	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	0.3%	3.40	2.34	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	44	0	63	288	60	19	7	0%	1.4	16.9%	7.3%	9.6%	3.1%	5.97	4.29	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	44	0	63	288	60	19	7	0%	1.4	20.8%	6.6%	14.2%	2.4%	5.97	3.54	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	1	52	216	33	9	3	4%	1.9	11.7%	4.9%	6.8%	1.6%	4.33	3.58	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	1	52	216	33	9	3	4%	1.9	15.3%	4.2%	11.1%	1.4%	4.33	3.10	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	2	75	297	84	16	10	4%	1.7	25.1%	5.7%	19.4%	3.5%	3.46	3.64	+0.8
2021	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	2	75	297	84	16	10	4%	1.7	28.3%	5.4%	22.9%	3.4%	3.46	3.23	+1.2
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	1	58	235	62	12	4	2%	0.9	27.1%	5.2%	21.8%	1.2%	2.81	2.15	+1.7
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	1	58	235	62	12	4	2%	0.9	26.4%	5.1%	21.3%	1.7%	2.81	2.48	+1.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	39	151	34	10	3	0%	1.2	18.3%	5.7%	12.6%	1.7%	2.79	3.18	+0.6
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	39	151	34	10	3	0%	1.2	18.3%	5.7%	12.6%	1.7%	2.79	3.18	+0.6
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	0	39	151	34	10	3	0%	1.2	22.5%	6.6%	15.9%	2.0%	2.79	3.13	+0.7
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	1	45	211	34	11	2	2%	1.0	13.2%	4.8%	8.4%	1.0%	6.65	3.17	+0.7
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	1	45	211	34	11	2	2%	1.0	13.2%	4.8%	8.4%	1.0%	6.65	3.17	+0.7
2025	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	1	45	211	34	11	2	2%	1.0	16.1%	5.2%	10.9%	0.9%	6.65	2.90	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			88	1	85	352	88	17	7	1%	1.0	25.0%	4.8%	20.2%	2.0%	3.59	2.70	+1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	39	1	54	233	36	13	7	3%	1.4	12.1%	4.8%	7.3%	3.4%	4.02	4.55	—
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	39	1	54	233	36	13	7	3%	1.4	12.1%	4.8%	7.3%	3.4%	4.02	4.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	A RAW	SEA	2	0	2	7	3	1	0	0%	1.1	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	SEA	37	1	51	226	33	12	7	3%	1.4	14.6%	5.3%	9.3%	3.1%	4.21	4.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	SEA	46	0	49	205	29	11	6	0%	1.1	14.3%	5.2%	9.1%	2.7%	4.27	4.43	+0.1
2028	34	MLB MLE	SEA	42	0	44	187	26	11	6	0%	1.1	14.1%	6.0%	8.1%	3.0%	4.54	4.72	-0.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	SEA	17	0	18	76	11	4	2	0%	1.1	14.3%	5.2%	9.1%	2.7%	4.27	4.43	+0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	SEA	13	0	14	59	8	4	2	0%	1.1	14.1%	6.0%	8.1%	3.0%	4.54	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	1	117	488	107	25	11	1%	1.0	22.0%	5.0%	17.0%	2.2%	3.81	3.11	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	2	200	830	182	43	19	1%	1.0	22.0%	5.0%	17.0%	2.2%	3.81	3.11	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		380	8	535	2277	403	136	42	2%	1.4	17.7%	6.0%	11.7%	1.8%	4.02	3.37	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	3	200	851	150	51	16	2%	1.4	17.7%	6.0%	11.7%	1.8%	4.02	3.37	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Scott Effross (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	14.2%	4.2%	2.4%	—	4.57	14.2%	8.6%	93	+0.44	—	—	—
Craig Stammen R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	32	SU	4.04	17.0%	3.7%	3.5%	.333	3.27	23.9%	18.6%	241	-0.77	1.82	407	83
Matt Albers R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.252	4.45	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.26	3.15	244	79
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	77
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	77
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	77
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	76
Esteban Haro R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	13.9%	5.1%	2.4%	.386	3.76	9.5%	3.9%	39	-0.15	3.76	164	76
Ronald Belisario R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	11.8%	6.3%	1.5%	.254	2.10	18.4%	14.0%	48	-1.61	2.10	126	75
Pedro Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	31	SU	4.14	14.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	145	74
Matt Belisle R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	35	SU	3.18	16.8%	8.7%	0.7%	.300	3.50	18.8%	13.8%	141	+0.32	2.51	174	74
Blaine Boyer R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SU	3.79	12.3%	5.6%	1.9%	.265	4.07	12.5%	5.9%	144	+0.28	3.24	209	74
Jesse Estrada R 2016 · 3.80 FIP	32	SU	3.80	10.1%	4.0%	1.9%	.285	4.89	11.2%	5.1%	180	+1.09	3.80	257	74
Jim Johnson R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	32	SU	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.63	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.29	2.56	251	74
Carlos Torres R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.67	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.48	2.89	326	74
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	74
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	283	73
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	73
Edward Mujica R 2016 · 3.29 FIP	32	SU	3.29	17.5%	3.0%	2.3%	.323	3.66	16.1%	13.3%	107	+0.37	3.02	212	72
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	71
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	14.2%	5.1%	1.04	4.26
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21