Scott Effross
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
+0.3
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 202 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA5.84
FIP4.11
xFIP4.44
SIERA4.43
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%11.5%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL6060
CMD6060
K†3030
FB Velo
p1089.4
Whiff%
p1015.9%
K%
p1011.8%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
SI (50%)
CH-1.0 (12%)
SL-1.6 (33%)
FB-1.6 (54%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 5 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.05 | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 41 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 16.2% | 6.1% | 0.5% | 3.23 | 2.77 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 42 | 2 | 79 | 350 | 74 | 25 | 1 | 16.3% | 8.2% | 0.4% | 3.40 | 2.98 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 44 | 0 | 63 | 288 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 5.97 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 28 | 1 | 52 | 216 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 11.7% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 4.33 | 3.57 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 45 | 2 | 75 | 297 | 84 | 16 | 10 | 25.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.46 | 3.62 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 61 | 1 | 58 | 235 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 27.1% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 2.81 | 2.17 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 32 | 0 | 39 | 151 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 2.79 | 3.22 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 43 | 1 | 45 | 211 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 13.8% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 6.65 | 3.20 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | DET | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 15.9% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 5.64 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | DET | — | — | 32 | 134 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 16.3% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 5.46 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | DET | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 16.0% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.87 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 342 | 7 | 483 | 2047 | 378 | 128 | 34 | 18.5% | 6.2% | 1.7% | 4.01 | 3.24 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 3 | 200 | 848 | 157 | 53 | 14 | 18.5% | 6.2% | 1.7% | 4.01 | 3.24 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Scott Effross (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.21 | 15.9% | 6.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.35 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 30 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Matt Belisle R 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.20 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.8% | .300 | 3.38 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.18 | 2.49 | 174 | 80 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 80 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 80 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.03 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.68 | 1.83 | 407 | 79 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 79 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 79 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 79 |
| Esteban Haro R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 13.9% | 5.1% | 2.4% | .386 | 3.73 | 9.5% | 3.9% | 39 | -0.13 | 3.73 | 164 | 77 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.71 | 11.8% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .254 | 2.10 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 48 | -1.61 | 2.10 | 126 | 76 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 76 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 76 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 76 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 75 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.83 | 10.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | .285 | 4.88 | 11.2% | 5.1% | 180 | +1.05 | 3.83 | 257 | 75 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.12 | 14.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 145 | 75 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.33 | 2.57 | 251 | 74 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 74 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.54 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .338 | 3.57 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | +0.03 | 2.65 | 283 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 74 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.