Max McDowell
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 28 | AAAScranton/Wilk… | 215 | .193/.294/.278 | 2 | 3 | 26 | — | .154/.229/.210 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 287 | .233/.367/.328 | 6 | 0 | 58 | — | .188/.300/.250 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAATOR | 190 | .172/.255/.320 | 7 | 1 | 19 | — | .139/.207/.243 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Brewers | — | 95 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 228 | 344 | 354 | 699 | 127 | 235 | 11 | 7 | 318 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 400 | 345 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 62 | 17 | 21 | 3 | 270 | 362 | 345 | 707 | 75 | 323 | 16 | 8 | 324 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 306 | 257 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 52 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 210 | 323 | 311 | 635 | 101 | 243 | 17 | 10 | 292 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 125 | 102 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 225 | 352 | 294 | 647 | 69 | 256 | 14 | 12 | 301 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 176 | 153 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 308 | 314 | 622 | 92 | 276 | 20 | 8 | 282 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 315 | 258 | 55 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 337 | 314 | 651 | 101 | 256 | 18 | 11 | 298 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 162 | 128 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 35 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 379 | 297 | 676 | 70 | 304 | 22 | 12 | 324 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 21 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 381 | 267 | 648 | 133 | 286 | 38 | 19 | 325 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 215 | 187 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 50 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 294 | 278 | 572 | 86 | 250 | 23 | 11 | 268 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 23 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 318 | 348 | 409 | 757 | 91 | 438 | 26 | 4 | 339 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 264 | 210 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 224 | 369 | 319 | 688 | 95 | 287 | 24 | 13 | 322 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 190 | 169 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 255 | 320 | 575 | 148 | 222 | 34 | 6 | 261 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 95 | 82 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 195 | 290 | 305 | 595 | 110 | 192 | 15 | 4 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 400 | 355 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 82 | 17 | 21 | 3 | 228 | 306 | 293 | 599 | 65 | 281 | 20 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 306 | 269 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 75 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 175 | 260 | 260 | 520 | 86 | 210 | 25 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 125 | 107 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 215 | 311 | 280 | 592 | 65 | 243 | 19 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 176 | 158 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 53 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 177 | 244 | 253 | 497 | 76 | 233 | 30 | 5 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 315 | 270 | 49 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 181 | 278 | 259 | 537 | 78 | 220 | 23 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 162 | 135 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 329 | 259 | 588 | 59 | 282 | 26 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 21 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 125 | 269 | 48 | 14 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 215 | 195 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 154 | 229 | 210 | 439 | 56 | 213 | 28 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 23 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 261 | 273 | 534 | 45 | 379 | 30 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 264 | 222 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 78 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 185 | 304 | 248 | 552 | 63 | 245 | 30 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 190 | 173 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 207 | 243 | 450 | 104 | 201 | 41 | 4 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 95 | 82 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 195 | 290 | 305 | 595 | 110 | 209 | 15 | 4 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Brewers | — | 95 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 228 | 344 | 354 | 699 | 127 | 235 | 11 | 7 | 318 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 400 | 355 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 82 | 17 | 21 | 3 | 228 | 306 | 293 | 599 | 65 | 291 | 20 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 400 | 345 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 62 | 17 | 21 | 3 | 270 | 362 | 345 | 707 | 75 | 323 | 16 | 8 | 324 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 306 | 269 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 75 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 175 | 260 | 260 | 520 | 86 | 221 | 25 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 306 | 257 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 52 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 210 | 323 | 311 | 635 | 101 | 243 | 17 | 10 | 292 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 301 | 265 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 76 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 185 | 265 | 245 | 511 | 60 | 246 | 25 | 6 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 301 | 255 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 54 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 224 | 327 | 306 | 632 | 82 | 267 | 18 | 10 | 290 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 315 | 270 | 49 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 181 | 278 | 259 | 537 | 78 | 232 | 23 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 315 | 258 | 55 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 337 | 314 | 651 | 101 | 256 | 18 | 11 | 298 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 151 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 52 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 330 | 258 | 588 | 66 | 286 | 28 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 183 | 143 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 43 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 379 | 294 | 673 | 77 | 303 | 23 | 13 | 324 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 215 | 195 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 154 | 229 | 210 | 439 | 56 | 215 | 28 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 215 | 187 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 50 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 294 | 278 | 572 | 86 | 250 | 23 | 11 | 268 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 287 | 244 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 86 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 189 | 300 | 250 | 550 | 61 | 268 | 30 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 287 | 232 | 54 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 233 | 367 | 328 | 695 | 95 | 302 | 24 | 13 | 324 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 190 | 173 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 207 | 243 | 450 | 104 | 207 | 41 | 4 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 190 | 169 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 255 | 320 | 575 | 148 | 222 | 34 | 6 | 261 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 95 | 84 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 190 | 290 | 298 | 588 | 107 | 192 | 15 | 4 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 400 | 357 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 82 | 17 | 21 | 3 | 227 | 306 | 291 | 598 | 64 | 281 | 20 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 306 | 272 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 75 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 173 | 260 | 257 | 517 | 85 | 210 | 25 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 301 | 269 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 76 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 182 | 265 | 242 | 507 | 59 | 237 | 25 | 6 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 315 | 276 | 49 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 278 | 254 | 531 | 76 | 220 | 23 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 150 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 52 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 330 | 260 | 590 | 67 | 281 | 28 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 215 | 194 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 155 | 229 | 211 | 440 | 57 | 213 | 28 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 287 | 246 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 86 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 187 | 300 | 248 | 548 | 61 | 256 | 30 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 190 | 173 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 207 | 243 | 450 | 104 | 201 | 41 | 4 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 190 | 173 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 207 | 243 | 450 | 104 | 201 | 41 | 4 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2292 | 2004 | 371 | 71 | 3 | 23 | 153 | 594 | 98 | 44 | 12 | 185 | 276 | 258 | 534 | 73 | 247 | 26 | 7 | 240 | 48 | -141 | +4 | +0 | +41 | +50 | -4.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 568 | 106 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 168 | 28 | 12 | 3 | 187 | 277 | 262 | 539 | 76 | 248 | 26 | 7 | 240 | 48 | -40 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 190 PAwOBA .255 → .197 (−58)K% 33.7% → 40.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.68% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.32% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 4.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 3.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×0.972 | 16.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.81% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×0.972 | 3.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 4.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .255 → .197; ISO .148 → .100; BABIP .222 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 264 PAwOBA .318 → .254 (−64)K% 24.2% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.26% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 9.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.30% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 4.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.71% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 23.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.999 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 1.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.11% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 2.92% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 101, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .318 → .254; ISO .095 → .071; BABIP .287 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 23 PAwOBA .330 → .260 (−69)K% 26.1% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 28.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 9.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .330 → .260; ISO .091 → .067; BABIP .438 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 215 PAwOBA .263 → .206 (−57)K% 23.3% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.26% | ÷1.001 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.70% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.52% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×0.992 | 15.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.992 | 6.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .263 → .206; ISO .086 → .066; BABIP .250 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 162 PAwOBA .317 → .274 (−42)K% 21.6% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.60% | ÷0.993 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.35% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 6.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.66% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.003 | 22.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.915 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.003 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.149 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.66% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 95, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .317 → .274; ISO .070 → .057; BABIP .304 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASomerset Patriots · 21 PAwOBA .319 → .257 (−61)K% 38.1% → 45.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.10% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 12.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.52% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 7.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.905 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 26.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .319 → .257; ISO .133 → .129; BABIP .286 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 315 PAwOBA .292 → .240 (−52)K% 18.4% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.41% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.79% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.13% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 3.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.50% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 16.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.00% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.57% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .292 → .240; ISO .101 → .083; BABIP .256 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Carolina Mudcats · 176 PAwOBA .276 → .211 (−65)K% 20.5% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.45% | ÷0.970 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.95% | ÷0.990 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 5.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.84% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 2.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.37% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 18.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 3.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.010 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 113, 2B 130, 3B 96, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .276 → .211; ISO .092 → .069; BABIP .276 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).