Tyler Jay

P Nashville Sounds

Age 33 LHP 6'0" / 191 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	AAANYM	6	0	6	6.00	2.60	29.6%	0.0%	—	K 29.6% · BB 0.0% · FIP 2.63
2024	30	MIX2 levels	41	1	64	3.22	3.04	20.3%	6.6%	1.2	K 17.9% · BB 4.6% · FIP 3.30
2025	31	AAAMIL	28	0	27	3.33	3.58	18.6%	12.4%	—	K 16.0% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.64
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIL	17	0	18	4.52	4.52	18.6%	8.7%	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBMIL	1	0	1	4.66	4.77	18.5%	9.3%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsZach Phillips (age 32) · Adam Liberatore (age 31) · Brandon Mann (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%18.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

SL (18%)

FB (60%)

SI (52%)

CT-1.1 (22%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	19	0	18	81	22	8	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.4%	9.6%	0.0%	3.93	2.77	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	Fort Myers Miracle	19	0	18	81	22	8	0	0%	1.0	27.2%	9.9%	17.3%	0.0%	3.93	2.01	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	84	346	77	26	7	83%	4.6	17.2%	8.6%	8.7%	2.6%	3.33	4.15	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	84	346	77	26	7	83%	4.6	22.3%	7.5%	14.7%	2.0%	3.33	3.28	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	1	12	51	19	4	2	12%	1.5	37.3%	7.8%	29.4%	3.9%	3.09	3.10	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	1	12	51	19	4	2	12%	1.5	37.3%	7.8%	29.4%	3.9%	3.09	3.10	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	38	2	60	269	49	19	7	5%	1.6	14.8%	7.8%	7.0%	3.2%	4.22	4.60	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	38	2	60	269	49	19	7	5%	1.6	18.2%	7.1%	11.2%	2.6%	4.22	3.94	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	63	288	65	29	2	3%	1.7	17.4%	11.4%	6.0%	0.9%	4.02	3.56	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	63	288	65	29	2	3%	1.7	22.6%	10.1%	12.5%	0.7%	4.02	2.83	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	6	0	6	27	8	0	1	0%	1.0	29.6%	0.0%	29.6%	3.7%	6.00	2.63	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	6	0	6	27	8	0	1	0%	1.0	29.6%	0.0%	29.6%	3.7%	6.00	2.60	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	64	271	55	18	4	2%	1.6	17.9%	4.6%	13.3%	2.1%	3.22	3.30	+1.0
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	64	271	55	18	4	2%	1.6	17.9%	4.6%	13.3%	2.1%	3.22	3.30	+1.0
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	64	271	55	18	4	2%	1.6	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	1.5%	3.22	3.04	+1.2
2025	31	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	28	0	27	113	21	14	1	0%	1.0	16.0%	11.2%	4.8%	0.9%	3.33	3.64	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	28	0	27	113	21	14	1	0%	1.0	16.0%	11.2%	4.8%	0.9%	3.33	3.64	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	28	0	27	113	21	14	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.4%	6.2%	0.9%	3.33	3.58	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	0	8	36	6	6	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	4.70	3.88	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIL	17	0	18	76	14	7	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	2.7%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	16	8	3	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.3%	9.2%	3.1%	4.66	4.77	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.5%	9.3%	9.2%	3.1%	4.66	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	9	41	7	6	0	0%	1.5	16.9%	15.8%	1.1%	0.4%	4.69	3.87	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		138	0	200	927	160	137	0	0%	1.4	16.9%	15.8%	1.1%	0.4%	4.69	3.87	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		195	20	333	1446	260	122	30	10%	1.7	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.1%	3.67	3.77	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	12	200	868	156	73	18	10%	1.7	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.1%	3.67	3.77	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Jay (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	18.6%	8.7%	2.7%	—	4.77	18.5%	9.2%	20	+0.25	—	—	—
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	69
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	69
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	69
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	68
Kelly Wunsch L 2005 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	21.0%	11.4%	1.9%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	175	68
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	67
Hideki Okajima L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	20.5%	7.0%	3.1%	.268	4.27	15.5%	8.5%	46	+0.32	3.05	238	67
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	67
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	66
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	66
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	65
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	64
Doug Creek L 2002 · 4.99 FIP	33	SU	4.99	21.4%	12.6%	3.8%	.288	5.79	17.1%	7.9%	36	+0.80	4.48	277	64
Francisley Bueno L 2014 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	14.1%	3.5%	2.3%	.289	3.94	13.6%	6.9%	138	+0.33	2.43	188	64
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.72	21.5%	14.5%	152	-0.48	1.80	421	64
Scott Sauerbeck L 2005 · 3.75 FIP	33	SU	3.75	22.3%	8.9%	2.5%	.298	5.05	14.0%	0.0%	25	+1.30	2.79	386	63
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	62
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	62
Joey Eischen L 2003 · 4.00 FIP	33	SU	4.00	18.1%	5.4%	3.2%	.309	3.44	19.6%	10.3%	69	-0.56	2.13	294	61
Chad Zerbe L 2003 · 3.89 FIP	31	SU	3.89	7.8%	5.5%	1.4%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	145	60