Mark Mathias
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 25 | MLBMIL | 36 | .278/.278/.361 | 0 | 1 | 83 | -0.0 | ||
| 2022 | 27 | AAATEX | 237 | .322/.426/.518 | 9 | 13 | 119 | — | .282/.362/.435 | |
| 2022 | 27 | MLBTEX | 91 | .247/.322/.506 | 6 | 3 | 122 | 0.7 | ||
| 2023 | 28 | AAASF | 204 | .292/.408/.411 | 4 | 4 | 97 | — | .266/.353/.356 | |
| 2023 | 28 | MLBSF | 72 | .226/.333/.258 | 0 | 3 | 79 | -0.2 | ||
| 2024 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 16 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 125 | 133 | 258 | 67 | 111 | 38 | 6 | 124 | -51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 490 | 427 | 117 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 48 | 87 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 274 | 361 | 405 | 766 | 131 | 331 | 18 | 10 | 343 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 125 | 104 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 212 | 333 | 308 | 641 | 96 | 296 | 27 | 10 | 297 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 476 | 397 | 92 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 59 | 94 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 232 | 344 | 370 | 714 | 139 | 277 | 20 | 12 | 319 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 478 | 412 | 111 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 91 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 269 | 360 | 442 | 801 | 172 | 314 | 19 | 11 | 352 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 36 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 278 | 361 | 639 | 83 | 345 | 19 | 0 | 283 | 83 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 91 | 81 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 322 | 506 | 828 | 259 | 304 | 33 | 10 | 358 | 122 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 237 | 199 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 57 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 322 | 426 | 518 | 943 | 196 | 407 | 24 | 13 | 415 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 72 | 62 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 226 | 333 | 258 | 591 | 32 | 298 | 21 | 14 | 283 | 79 | -2 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 204 | 168 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 292 | 408 | 411 | 819 | 119 | 385 | 25 | 15 | 369 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 199 | 179 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 52 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 246 | 318 | 391 | 709 | 145 | 311 | 26 | 10 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 16 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 125 | 133 | 258 | 67 | 98 | 44 | 6 | 93 | -51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 490 | 445 | 102 | 30 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 129 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 229 | 293 | 335 | 628 | 106 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 125 | 108 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 185 | 285 | 269 | 553 | 83 | 270 | 34 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 476 | 413 | 89 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 43 | 114 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 215 | 303 | 344 | 647 | 128 | 261 | 24 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 478 | 430 | 102 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 110 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 237 | 302 | 384 | 686 | 147 | 283 | 23 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB MLE | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 36 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 278 | 361 | 639 | 83 | 345 | 19 | 0 | 291 | 83 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 91 | 81 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 322 | 506 | 828 | 259 | 304 | 33 | 10 | 348 | 122 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 237 | 209 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 67 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 282 | 362 | 435 | 797 | 153 | 371 | 28 | 9 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 72 | 62 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 226 | 333 | 258 | 591 | 32 | 298 | 21 | 14 | 286 | 79 | -2 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 204 | 177 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 55 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 266 | 353 | 356 | 709 | 90 | 348 | 27 | 10 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 460 | 103 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 137 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 224 | 287 | 328 | 616 | 104 | 305 | 27 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 506 | 442 | 118 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 49 | 93 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 267 | 353 | 396 | 749 | 129 | 326 | 18 | 10 | 336 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 125 | 108 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 185 | 285 | 269 | 553 | 83 | 284 | 34 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 125 | 104 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 212 | 333 | 308 | 641 | 96 | 296 | 27 | 10 | 297 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 476 | 413 | 89 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 43 | 114 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 215 | 303 | 344 | 647 | 128 | 271 | 24 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 476 | 397 | 92 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 59 | 94 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 232 | 344 | 370 | 714 | 139 | 277 | 20 | 12 | 319 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 478 | 430 | 102 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 110 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 237 | 302 | 384 | 686 | 147 | 289 | 23 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 478 | 412 | 111 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 91 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 269 | 360 | 442 | 801 | 172 | 314 | 19 | 11 | 352 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB MLE | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 36 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 278 | 361 | 639 | 83 | 345 | 19 | 0 | 291 | 83 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB RAW | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 36 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 278 | 361 | 639 | 83 | 345 | 19 | 0 | 283 | 83 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 290 | 78 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 97 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 269 | 348 | 441 | 789 | 172 | 359 | 30 | 9 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 328 | 280 | 84 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 87 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 300 | 397 | 514 | 911 | 214 | 381 | 27 | 12 | 399 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 239 | 61 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 70 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 255 | 348 | 331 | 679 | 75 | 343 | 25 | 11 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 276 | 230 | 63 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 65 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 274 | 388 | 370 | 758 | 96 | 360 | 24 | 14 | 346 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 460 | 103 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 137 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 224 | 287 | 328 | 616 | 104 | 296 | 27 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 125 | 109 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 183 | 285 | 266 | 551 | 83 | 270 | 34 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 476 | 421 | 89 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 43 | 114 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 211 | 303 | 337 | 641 | 126 | 261 | 24 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 478 | 435 | 102 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 110 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 234 | 302 | 379 | 681 | 145 | 283 | 23 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB MLE | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 36 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 278 | 361 | 639 | 83 | 345 | 19 | 0 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 290 | 78 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 97 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 269 | 348 | 441 | 789 | 172 | 353 | 30 | 9 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 240 | 61 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 70 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 254 | 348 | 329 | 677 | 75 | 335 | 25 | 11 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 199 | 179 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 52 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 246 | 318 | 391 | 709 | 145 | 311 | 26 | 10 | 317 | 84 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 144 | 26 | 0 | 20 | 62 | 170 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 246 | 318 | 393 | 712 | 147 | 312 | 26 | 10 | 317 | 84 | +1 | +5 | -8 | +6 | +14 | 1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2225 | 1976 | 463 | 108 | 8 | 40 | 177 | 577 | 40 | 61 | 10 | 234 | 310 | 358 | 668 | 123 | 306 | 26 | 8 | 293 | 84 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 136 | 32 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 169 | 12 | 18 | 3 | 236 | 312 | 360 | 672 | 125 | 308 | 26 | 8 | 293 | 84 | +1 | +5 | -8 | +6 | +14 | 1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 204 PAwOBA .365 → .312 (−53)K% 24.5% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.51% | ÷1.087 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 10.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.36% | ÷0.992 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×0.982 | 29.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.78% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×0.982 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.21% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .365 → .312; ISO .119 → .091; BABIP .385 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAARound Rock Express · 237 PAwOBA .406 → .344 (−62)K% 24.1% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.05% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.66% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.99% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×0.992 | 28.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.992 | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×0.992 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.34% | ÷0.957 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.60% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 97, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .406 → .344; ISO .196 → .156; BABIP .407 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 478 PAwOBA .348 → .299 (−49)K% 19.0% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.04% | ÷0.993 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.67% | ÷1.089 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.56% | ÷0.970 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 19.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.66% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 7.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.74% | ÷0.985 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 99, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .348 → .299; ISO .172 → .152; BABIP .314 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAkron RubberDucks · 476 PAwOBA .315 → .284 (−31)K% 19.7% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.75% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.97% | ÷0.941 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.48% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 17.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.25% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 7.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.980 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.64% | ÷0.840 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.48% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 94, 2B 84, 3B 96, K 101, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .284; ISO .139 → .131; BABIP .277 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAkron RubberDucks · 125 PAwOBA .295 → .245 (−50)K% 27.2% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.20% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.40% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.80% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 4.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.978 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 20.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.072 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.008 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .295 → .245; ISO .096 → .075; BABIP .296 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 490 PAwOBA .336 → .273 (−63)K% 17.8% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.76% | ÷0.956 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷1.015 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 6.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷0.969 | ×0.940 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 20.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 9.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.29% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.932 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 1.44% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 107, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .336 → .273; ISO .131 → .107; BABIP .331 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAkron RubberDucks · 16 PAwOBA .121 → .093 (−28)K% 37.5% → 45.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.950 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.015 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 9.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .121 → .093; ISO .067 → .052; BABIP .111 → .098. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).