Joey Marciano prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Joey Marciano P Sacramento River Cats

Age 31 LHP 6'5" / 250 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%21.7%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	15	3	29	117	26	11	1	20%	1.9	15.1%	11.8%	3.4%	1.2%	1.57	3.97	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	AZL Giants	15	3	29	117	26	11	1	20%	1.9	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	0.9%	1.57	2.89	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	18	112	474	97	36	14	64%	4.0	15.3%	8.9%	6.4%	3.9%	4.19	5.08	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	18	112	474	97	36	14	64%	4.0	20.5%	7.6%	12.9%	3.0%	4.19	3.96	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	27	0	42	188	46	22	4	0%	1.5	18.8%	13.5%	5.4%	2.8%	4.75	4.75	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	San Jose Giants	27	0	42	188	46	22	4	0%	1.5	24.5%	11.7%	12.8%	2.1%	4.75	3.72	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	39	0	47	192	59	16	4	0%	1.2	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	2.7%	3.09	3.65	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	39	0	47	192	59	16	4	0%	1.2	30.7%	8.3%	22.4%	2.1%	3.09	2.71	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	56	1	59	265	62	33	6	2%	1.1	20.6%	13.1%	7.5%	2.5%	4.12	4.40	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	56	1	59	265	62	33	6	2%	1.1	23.4%	12.5%	10.9%	2.3%	4.12	4.00	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	31	2	43	219	51	42	5	6%	1.4	20.0%	17.3%	2.8%	2.4%	6.75	4.90	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	31	2	43	219	51	42	5	6%	1.4	20.0%	17.3%	2.8%	2.4%	6.75	4.90	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	31	2	43	219	51	42	5	6%	1.4	23.3%	19.2%	4.1%	2.3%	6.75	5.19	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	12.7%	9.0%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	SF	21	0	22	92	20	12	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	3.2%	4.96	5.05	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	SF	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	3.2%	4.96	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	3.2%	4.96	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	100	25	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	3.2%	4.96	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		196	24	330	1455	272	171	42	12%	1.7	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	2.9%	4.20	4.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	15	200	881	165	104	26	12%	1.7	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	2.9%	4.20	4.61	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Marciano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	21.7%	12.7%	3.0%	—	5.05	21.4%	8.7%	22	+0.17	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	83
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	82
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	77
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	76
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	75
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	75
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	74
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	74
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	74
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	73
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	73
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	72
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	71
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	71
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	68
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	239	68
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	67
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	67
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	66
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	66