Nick Vespi

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 31 LHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	45	53	2.87	3.23	23.4%	6.5%	0.8	K 20.7% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.47
2024	28	MIX2 levels	40	55	6.26	3.48	23.0%	13.0%	0.7	K 20.7% · BB 13.2% · FIP 3.59
2025	29	AAAPHI	20	18	7.85	6.26	14.8%	17.0%	—	K 12.7% · BB 15.3% · FIP 6.14
2027PROJ	31	MLBPHI	52	55	4.62	5.63	10.0%	10.1%	-0.7
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBPHI	18	19	5.24	5.75	10.5%	10.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBPHI	25	26	5.61	5.92	10.7%	10.8%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control59Command52FB velo20

CompsVic Darensbourg (age 31) · Brian Shouse (age 33) · Edgar Osuna (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA4.62

FIP5.63

K%10.0%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%-0.1%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†3030

SL (25%)

CU (18%)

FB (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	17	1	24	99	25	2	1	6%	1.4	17.2%	2.5%	14.6%	1.4%	3.00	2.75	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	17	1	24	99	25	2	1	6%	1.4	25.3%	2.0%	23.2%	1.0%	3.00	1.81	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	12	10	50	198	41	7	2	83%	4.2	14.1%	4.4%	9.7%	1.4%	1.97	3.25	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	12	10	50	198	41	7	2	83%	4.2	20.7%	3.5%	17.2%	1.0%	1.97	2.40	—
2017	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	0	1	5	0	2	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	9.00	8.17	—
2017	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	0	1	5	0	2	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	9.00	9.10	—
2018	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	40	0	65	271	68	22	2	0%	1.6	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	1.1%	2.09	3.35	—
2018	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	40	0	65	271	68	22	2	0%	1.6	25.1%	8.1%	17.0%	0.7%	2.09	2.42	—
2019	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	16	91	372	100	29	5	70%	4.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	1.9%	3.16	3.62	—
2019	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	16	91	372	100	29	5	70%	4.0	26.9%	7.8%	19.1%	1.3%	3.16	2.57	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	39	160	51	16	6	0%	1.3	26.9%	10.8%	16.2%	4.1%	4.19	4.43	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	39	160	51	16	6	0%	1.3	31.9%	10.0%	21.9%	3.8%	4.19	3.72	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	55	214	64	12	5	0%	1.1	27.9%	5.7%	22.2%	2.4%	1.96	2.76	+1.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	55	214	64	12	5	0%	1.1	29.9%	5.6%	24.3%	2.3%	1.96	2.61	+1.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	53	214	50	14	5	0%	1.2	20.7%	5.9%	14.7%	2.5%	2.87	3.47	+0.7
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	53	214	50	14	5	0%	1.2	23.4%	6.5%	16.8%	2.3%	2.87	3.23	+0.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	261	60	34	3	0%	1.4	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	1.0%	6.26	3.59	+0.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	261	60	34	3	0%	1.4	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	1.0%	6.26	3.59	+0.6
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	55	261	60	34	3	0%	1.4	23.0%	13.0%	10.0%	1.1%	6.26	3.48	+0.7
2025	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	20	0	18	88	13	15	3	0%	0.9	12.7%	15.3%	-2.6%	4.0%	7.85	6.14	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	20	0	18	88	13	15	3	0%	0.9	12.7%	15.3%	-2.6%	4.0%	7.85	6.14	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	20	0	18	88	13	15	3	0%	0.9	14.8%	17.0%	-2.3%	3.4%	7.85	6.26	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	0	53	220	46	11	8	0%	1.2	20.9%	5.0%	15.9%	3.6%	3.88	3.94	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	PHI	52	0	55	232	23	24	7	0%	1.1	10.0%	10.1%	-0.1%	3.1%	4.62	5.63	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	PHI	49	0	51	216	23	23	7	0%	1.0	10.5%	10.4%	0.1%	3.3%	5.24	5.75	-0.7
2029	33	MLB MLE	PHI	45	0	47	198	21	21	7	0%	1.0	10.7%	10.8%	-0.2%	3.6%	5.61	5.92	-0.7
2030	34	MLB MLE	PHI	41	0	43	181	19	20	7	0%	1.0	10.4%	11.2%	-0.8%	3.9%	5.90	6.15	-0.7
2028	32	MLB CTX	PHI	18	0	19	80	8	8	3	0%	1.1	10.5%	10.4%	0.1%	3.3%	5.24	5.75	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	PHI	25	0	26	110	12	12	4	0%	1.0	10.7%	10.8%	-0.2%	3.6%	5.61	5.92	-0.4
2030	34	MLB CTX	PHI	21	0	22	93	10	10	4	0%	1.0	10.4%	11.2%	-0.8%	3.9%	5.90	6.15	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	0	120	500	76	41	18	0%	1.1	15.1%	8.3%	6.8%	3.6%	4.83	4.86	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	0	200	836	127	68	30	0%	1.1	15.1%	8.3%	6.8%	3.6%	4.83	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		279	27	451	1882	381	163	37	10%	1.6	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	2.0%	3.35	3.58	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	12	200	835	169	72	17	10%	1.6	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	2.0%	3.35	3.58	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Vespi (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	10.0%	10.1%	3.1%	—	5.93	10.5%	-0.3%	141	+0.30	—	—	—
Vic Darensbourg L 2002 · 5.46 FIP	31	SU	5.46	14.2%	9.4%	4.3%	.304	4.11	9.4%	4.2%	22	-1.35	2.94	287	68
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	67
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	67
Jack Taschner L 2009 · 4.72 FIP	31	SU	4.72	13.3%	12.6%	2.1%	.340	4.74	18.1%	6.4%	20	+0.02	3.14	189	66
Pedro Borbón L 2000 · 5.20 FIP	32	SU	5.20	13.6%	15.5%	2.4%	.274	4.23	21.1%	15.5%	104	-0.97	2.26	264	66
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	66
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SU	5.46	8.1%	13.8%	2.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	115	63
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	63
Erasmo Ramirez L 2005 · 4.68 FIP	29	SU	4.68	6.2%	3.1%	3.1%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	108	62
Phil Dumatrait L 2011 · 5.09 FIP	30	SU	5.09	14.8%	10.2%	3.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.39	151	61
Chris Michalak L 2002 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	7.0%	11.3%	1.4%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	61
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	61
Joey Eischen L 2001 · 5.00 FIP	31	SU	5.00	14.5%	11.5%	3.0%	.269	3.14	20.9%	14.9%	125	-1.86	2.13	294	61
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	60
Eric DuBose L 2005 · 5.45 FIP	29	SW	5.45	12.6%	14.1%	3.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	178	60
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	60
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	59
Stephen Randolph L 2004 · 5.69 FIP	30	SU	5.69	15.8%	18.8%	2.8%	.252	5.97	28.2%	9.0%	13	+0.28	4.83	155	59
Scott Alexander L 2020 · 5.61 FIP	31	SU	5.61	17.3%	15.4%	3.7%	.212	3.15	14.5%	11.1%	81	-2.46	2.90	427	57
Doug Slaten L 2011 · 4.66 FIP	31	SU	4.66	15.5%	7.1%	3.6%	.371	5.10	10.9%	-3.6%	13	+0.44	3.22	139	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	50	12.6%	9.6%	1.35	5.00
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*