Ryan McKenna
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AAABAL | 38 | .273/.351/.545 | 3 | 0 | 97 | — | .235/.297/.412 | |
| 2022 | 25 | MLBBAL | 172 | .237/.296/.340 | 2 | 2 | 72 | -0.1 | ||
| 2023 | 26 | AAABAL | 61 | .182/.262/.418 | 3 | 2 | 34 | — | .140/.197/.316 | |
| 2023 | 26 | MLBBAL | 139 | .254/.321/.361 | 2 | 5 | 85 | 0.0 | ||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/ROK2 orgs | 250 | .231/.332/.392 | 7 | 15 | 62 | — | .203/.274/.324 | |
| 2024 | 27 | MLBSF | 15 | .214/.267/.643 | 2 | 1 | 162 | -0.4 | ||
| 2025 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Orioles | — | 41 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 265 | 375 | 324 | 699 | 59 | 310 | 15 | 15 | 318 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 530 | 468 | 120 | 33 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 128 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 256 | 333 | 380 | 714 | 124 | 336 | 24 | 8 | 319 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 250 | 213 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 56 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 239 | 341 | 338 | 679 | 99 | 312 | 22 | 12 | 309 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 301 | 257 | 97 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 45 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 377 | 465 | 556 | 1.022 | 179 | 436 | 15 | 12 | 451 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 78 | 61 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 344 | 474 | 590 | 1.064 | 246 | 455 | 21 | 18 | 450 | 191 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 567 | 488 | 113 | 26 | 6 | 9 | 59 | 121 | 7 | 25 | 11 | 232 | 323 | 365 | 688 | 133 | 287 | 21 | 10 | 306 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 197 | 169 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 74 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 292 | 266 | 559 | 83 | 312 | 38 | 12 | 262 | 62 | -9 | +0 | +2 | -3 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 123 | 101 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 33 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 307 | 426 | 683 | 1.109 | 376 | 345 | 27 | 17 | 467 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 172 | 156 | 37 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 237 | 296 | 340 | 636 | 103 | 350 | 32 | 6 | 284 | 72 | -6 | +0 | +3 | -2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 38 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 273 | 351 | 545 | 897 | 273 | 353 | 37 | 11 | 381 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 139 | 122 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 254 | 321 | 361 | 682 | 107 | 354 | 29 | 6 | 299 | 85 | -2 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 61 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 182 | 262 | 418 | 680 | 236 | 226 | 34 | 10 | 299 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 267 | 643 | 910 | 429 | 143 | 33 | 7 | 384 | 162 | +1 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +0 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 229 | 195 | 42 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 50 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 215 | 314 | 369 | 683 | 154 | 252 | 22 | 11 | 302 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK | ACL Giants | — | 21 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 412 | 524 | 647 | 1.171 | 235 | 545 | 24 | 19 | 509 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 523 | 461 | 102 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 45 | 174 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 300 | 328 | 628 | 106 | 333 | 33 | 9 | 282 | 77 | -14 | +1 | +4 | -11 | +11 | -0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 41 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 300 | 278 | 578 | 56 | 257 | 22 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 530 | 480 | 105 | 27 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 172 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 219 | 282 | 327 | 609 | 108 | 311 | 32 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 250 | 220 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 71 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 313 | 314 | 627 | 82 | 324 | 28 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 301 | 271 | 86 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 64 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 317 | 385 | 435 | 821 | 118 | 403 | 21 | 8 | 364 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 567 | 506 | 100 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 41 | 157 | 7 | 25 | 11 | 198 | 267 | 302 | 570 | 105 | 260 | 28 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 197 | 169 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 74 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 292 | 266 | 559 | 83 | 312 | 38 | 12 | 260 | 62 | -9 | +0 | +2 | -3 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 123 | 107 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 40 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 271 | 361 | 542 | 903 | 271 | 333 | 33 | 12 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 172 | 157 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 229 | 284 | 325 | 609 | 96 | 350 | 32 | 6 | 274 | 72 | -6 | +0 | +3 | -2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 38 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 235 | 297 | 412 | 709 | 176 | 341 | 45 | 8 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 139 | 122 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 254 | 321 | 361 | 682 | 107 | 354 | 29 | 6 | 294 | 85 | -2 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 61 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 140 | 197 | 316 | 513 | 175 | 203 | 43 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 267 | 643 | 910 | 429 | 143 | 33 | 7 | 408 | 162 | +1 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +0 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 229 | 203 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 59 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 192 | 265 | 305 | 570 | 113 | 232 | 26 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants | — | 21 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 381 | 526 | 907 | 211 | 402 | 33 | 10 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 41 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 300 | 278 | 578 | 56 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Orioles | — | 41 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 265 | 375 | 324 | 699 | 59 | 310 | 15 | 15 | 318 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 530 | 480 | 105 | 27 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 172 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 219 | 282 | 327 | 609 | 108 | 322 | 32 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 530 | 468 | 120 | 33 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 128 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 256 | 333 | 380 | 714 | 124 | 336 | 24 | 8 | 319 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 629 | 560 | 157 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 52 | 155 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 280 | 353 | 388 | 741 | 107 | 374 | 25 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 629 | 531 | 169 | 32 | 7 | 12 | 80 | 117 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 318 | 417 | 473 | 890 | 154 | 391 | 19 | 13 | 394 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 567 | 506 | 100 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 41 | 157 | 7 | 25 | 11 | 198 | 267 | 302 | 570 | 105 | 269 | 28 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | — | 567 | 488 | 113 | 26 | 6 | 9 | 59 | 121 | 7 | 25 | 11 | 232 | 323 | 365 | 688 | 133 | 287 | 21 | 10 | 306 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 276 | 59 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 114 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 214 | 315 | 370 | 685 | 156 | 320 | 36 | 12 | 304 | 92 | -3 | +0 | +2 | -3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 320 | 270 | 62 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 45 | 107 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 230 | 344 | 422 | 766 | 193 | 325 | 33 | 14 | 341 | 92 | -3 | +0 | +2 | -3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 210 | 191 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 72 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 230 | 286 | 340 | 627 | 110 | 342 | 34 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -6 | -1 | +3 | -2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 210 | 189 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 69 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 243 | 306 | 376 | 681 | 132 | 350 | 33 | 7 | 301 | 76 | -6 | -1 | +3 | -2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 200 | 179 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 66 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 212 | 277 | 335 | 612 | 123 | 306 | 33 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -7 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 200 | 177 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 61 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 232 | 303 | 379 | 681 | 147 | 319 | 30 | 8 | 299 | 70 | -7 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 236 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 71 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 203 | 274 | 343 | 617 | 140 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 265 | 226 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 60 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 230 | 328 | 407 | 735 | 177 | 267 | 23 | 11 | 323 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 41 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 216 | 300 | 270 | 570 | 54 | 257 | 22 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 530 | 483 | 105 | 27 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 172 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 217 | 282 | 325 | 607 | 108 | 311 | 32 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 629 | 561 | 157 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 52 | 155 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 280 | 353 | 387 | 740 | 107 | 367 | 25 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 567 | 514 | 100 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 41 | 157 | 7 | 25 | 11 | 195 | 267 | 298 | 565 | 103 | 260 | 28 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 276 | 59 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 114 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 214 | 315 | 370 | 685 | 156 | 320 | 36 | 12 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 210 | 193 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 72 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 228 | 286 | 337 | 623 | 109 | 348 | 34 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 200 | 182 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 66 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 209 | 277 | 330 | 607 | 121 | 308 | 33 | 6 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 240 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 71 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 200 | 274 | 338 | 612 | 138 | 240 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 240 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 71 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 200 | 274 | 338 | 612 | 138 | 240 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 523 | 461 | 102 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 45 | 174 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 300 | 328 | 628 | 106 | 333 | 33 | 9 | 282 | 77 | -14 | +1 | +4 | -11 | +11 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 573 | 127 | 29 | 1 | 10 | 56 | 216 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 222 | 301 | 328 | 630 | 106 | 333 | 33 | 9 | 282 | 77 | -18 | +1 | +5 | -13 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2762 | 2464 | 559 | 110 | 16 | 48 | 213 | 816 | 39 | 90 | 31 | 227 | 299 | 343 | 642 | 116 | 316 | 30 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -14 | +1 | +4 | -11 | +11 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 132 | 26 | 4 | 11 | 50 | 192 | 9 | 21 | 7 | 228 | 299 | 343 | 642 | 116 | 318 | 30 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -18 | +1 | +5 | -13 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 229 PAwOBA .300 → .254 (−46)K% 21.8% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.83% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.92% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×1.003 | 16.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.003 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×1.003 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.14% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.94% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .300 → .254; ISO .154 → .124; BABIP .252 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Giants · 21 PAwOBA .496 → .327 (−169)K% 23.8% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷0.997 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.062 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 10.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.67% | ÷1.003 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 32.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.927 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 6.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.178 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 5.19% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .496 → .327; ISO .235 → .148; BABIP .545 → .402. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 61 PAwOBA .291 → .219 (−71)K% 34.4% → 42.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.43% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.84% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 10.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 3.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 6.32% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .291 → .219; ISO .236 → .170; BABIP .226 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 38 PAwOBA .380 → .312 (−67)K% 36.8% → 43.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.84% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 43.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.58% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 31.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 11.77% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .380 → .312; ISO .273 → .201; BABIP .353 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 123 PAwOBA .458 → .374 (−84)K% 26.8% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.83% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.07% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 11.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×1.045 | ×1.048 | 24.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.41% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×1.045 | ×1.048 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×1.048 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.18% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 11.76% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .458 → .374; ISO .376 → .282; BABIP .345 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABowie Baysox · 567 PAwOBA .299 → .252 (−48)K% 21.3% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.34% | ÷0.940 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.23% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.62% | ÷1.031 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 18.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.08% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.116 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.45% | ÷0.987 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 2.02% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 123, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .299 → .252; ISO .133 → .111; BABIP .287 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Frederick Keys · 301 PAwOBA .437 → .364 (−73)K% 15.0% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.95% | ÷0.992 | ×1.420 | — | — | 21.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.63% | ÷0.956 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 7.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.99% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.55% | ÷1.021 | ×0.940 | ×1.024 | ×1.027 | 31.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.49% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.027 | 7.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.024 | ×1.027 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.357 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 2.57% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 171, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 98, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .437 → .364; ISO .179 → .130; BABIP .436 → .403. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABowie Baysox · 250 PAwOBA .302 → .278 (−23)K% 22.4% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.40% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.60% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.20% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×1.034 | ×1.050 | 25.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷0.971 | ×0.860 | ×1.034 | ×1.050 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.034 | ×1.050 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.91% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.48% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .302 → .278; ISO .099 → .088; BABIP .312 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).