LJ Talley
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AA/A+TOR | 360 | .251/.329/.386 | 8 | 3 | 64 | — | .212/.270/.315 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA/AATOR | 444 | .264/.341/.419 | 12 | 12 | 80 | — | .238/.298/.356 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAATOR | 220 | .219/.333/.332 | 4 | 5 | 55 | — | .189/.274/.276 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 208 | 183 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 271 | 333 | 604 | 142 | 204 | 19 | 9 | 268 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 335 | 296 | 73 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 66 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 326 | 389 | 715 | 142 | 288 | 20 | 10 | 319 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 25 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 304 | 360 | 348 | 708 | 43 | 350 | 12 | 8 | 324 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 343 | 309 | 88 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 66 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 285 | 352 | 437 | 789 | 152 | 338 | 19 | 8 | 350 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 101 | 85 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 303 | 353 | 656 | 165 | 197 | 22 | 13 | 295 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 220 | 187 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 219 | 333 | 332 | 665 | 112 | 262 | 20 | 15 | 307 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 208 | 189 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 153 | 212 | 254 | 466 | 101 | 177 | 27 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 335 | 306 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 81 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 269 | 317 | 586 | 108 | 257 | 24 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 280 | 292 | 572 | 42 | 321 | 16 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 343 | 318 | 82 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 78 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 258 | 308 | 374 | 682 | 116 | 319 | 23 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 101 | 88 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 263 | 295 | 558 | 125 | 178 | 27 | 10 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 220 | 196 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 53 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 189 | 274 | 276 | 549 | 87 | 240 | 24 | 10 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 208 | 189 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 153 | 212 | 254 | 466 | 101 | 188 | 27 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 208 | 183 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 271 | 333 | 604 | 142 | 204 | 19 | 9 | 268 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 360 | 329 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 85 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 272 | 316 | 589 | 103 | 264 | 24 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 360 | 319 | 80 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 69 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 251 | 329 | 386 | 714 | 135 | 293 | 19 | 10 | 319 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 406 | 95 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 104 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 234 | 293 | 350 | 643 | 116 | 290 | 23 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 444 | 394 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 40 | 88 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 264 | 341 | 419 | 760 | 155 | 309 | 20 | 9 | 337 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 220 | 196 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 53 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 189 | 274 | 276 | 549 | 87 | 241 | 24 | 10 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 220 | 187 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 219 | 333 | 332 | 665 | 112 | 262 | 20 | 15 | 307 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 208 | 192 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 151 | 212 | 250 | 462 | 99 | 177 | 27 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 360 | 330 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 85 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 272 | 315 | 588 | 103 | 261 | 24 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 407 | 95 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 104 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 233 | 293 | 349 | 642 | 115 | 287 | 23 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 220 | 195 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 53 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 190 | 274 | 277 | 551 | 87 | 240 | 24 | 10 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1232 | 1120 | 231 | 39 | 6 | 22 | 89 | 298 | 9 | 21 | 3 | 206 | 270 | 311 | 581 | 104 | 257 | 24 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -56 | +3 | +0 | +4 | +27 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 123 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 47 | 157 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 208 | 273 | 315 | 587 | 107 | 259 | 24 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -30 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 220 PAwOBA .301 → .250 (−51)K% 19.5% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.55% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.55% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.14% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×1.016 | ×1.018 | 19.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.86% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.018 | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×1.018 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.916 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.16% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .301 → .250; ISO .112 → .090; BABIP .262 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 343 PAwOBA .342 → .300 (−42)K% 19.2% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.24% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.58% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.10% | ÷0.960 | ×0.930 | ×0.984 | ×1.033 | 24.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.17% | ÷0.984 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.033 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷1.149 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×1.033 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.29% | ÷0.951 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.50% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .342 → .300; ISO .152 → .123; BABIP .338 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 101 PAwOBA .293 → .243 (−50)K% 21.8% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.78% | ÷1.012 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.87% | ÷0.911 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.87% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 15.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.067 | ×0.860 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 2.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.81% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 102, BB 82 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .293 → .243; ISO .165 → .127; BABIP .197 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 335 PAwOBA .314 → .263 (−51)K% 19.7% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.70% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.15% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.30% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.87% | ÷1.022 | ×0.940 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 19.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.96% | ÷1.039 | ×0.870 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.48% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.82% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .314 → .263; ISO .142 → .117; BABIP .288 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Vancouver Canadians · 25 PAwOBA .316 → .273 (−43)K% 12.0% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.991 | ×1.350 | — | — | 16.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 27.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 4.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 95, 2B 88, 3B 110, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .316 → .273; ISO .043 → .037; BABIP .350 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ALansing Lugnuts · 208 PAwOBA .266 → .204 (−62)K% 18.8% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.950 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.65% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.28% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 13.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷1.050 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.99% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 110, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .266 → .204; ISO .142 → .102; BABIP .204 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).