Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 5 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.1% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 2.56 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 5 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.1% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 2.50 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | South Bend Cubs | 24 | 24 | 124 | 539 | 81 | 52 | 10 | 100% | 5.2 | 11.1% | 11.4% | -0.3% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 5.40 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | South Bend Cubs | 24 | 24 | 124 | 539 | 81 | 52 | 10 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.0% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 3.91 | 4.10 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 23 | 23 | 113 | 499 | 78 | 58 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 12.0% | 13.4% | -1.3% | 1.2% | 4.70 | 4.41 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 23 | 23 | 113 | 499 | 78 | 58 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 15.6% | 11.6% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 4.70 | 3.72 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 9 | 37 | 157 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 82% | 3.3 | 14.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.66 | 5.75 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 9 | 37 | 157 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 82% | 3.3 | 20.4% | 5.1% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 3.78 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 55 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 1.0% | 4.76 | 3.45 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 55 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 4.76 | 3.87 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 256 | 76 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.6% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 3.66 | 3.55 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 256 | 76 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.7% | 10.5% | 19.1% | 2.0% | 3.66 | 3.00 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 8 | 64 | 285 | 93 | 29 | 4 | 15% | 1.2 | 31.4% | 10.9% | 20.5% | 1.4% | 3.08 | 2.57 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 8 | 64 | 285 | 93 | 29 | 4 | 15% | 1.2 | 32.6% | 10.2% | 22.5% | 1.4% | 3.08 | 2.37 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 71 | 268 | 75 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.8% | 7.4% | 19.5% | 3.2% | 1.77 | 3.50 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 71 | 268 | 75 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.0% | 7.1% | 20.9% | 2.6% | 1.77 | 3.07 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 47 | 213 | 50 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 5.59 | 3.81 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 47 | 213 | 50 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 5.59 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 42 | 6 | 41 | 174 | 39 | 15 | 1 | 14% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 0.6% | 2.20 | 2.61 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 3.21 | 3.65 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 3.21 | 3.65 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 57 | 242 | 54 | 22 | 2 | — | — | 22.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 1.0% | 2.48 | 2.91 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 57 | 241 | 54 | 22 | 2 | — | — | 22.4% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 1.0% | 2.48 | 2.90 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 48 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 3.98 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 44 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 3.98 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 42 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 216 | 6 | 242 | 1008 | 230 | 96 | 23 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 2.3% | 3.27 | 3.62 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 179 | 5 | 200 | 834 | 190 | 79 | 19 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 2.3% | 3.27 | 3.62 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 328 | 70 | 621 | 2671 | 507 | 289 | 57 | 21% | 1.9 | 19.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 3.82 | 4.04 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 23 | 200 | 860 | 163 | 93 | 18 | 21% | 1.9 | 19.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 3.82 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Hudson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.35 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 104 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 74 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 74 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 74 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 72 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.38 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.43 | 2.90 | 414 | 71 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 71 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 71 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 71 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 71 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 71 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 70 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.98 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.53 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 108 | +0.55 | 3.94 | 470 | 70 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 70 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 1.1% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 160 | 70 |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 69 |
| Tyler Olson L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .326 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 31 | +0.30 | 2.92 | 263 | 69 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 69 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.16 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.23 | 2.51 | 190 | 69 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 69 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 0.99 | 4.07 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Cory Gearrin ('19) | 4 | 57 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 0.79 | 3.42 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |