Justin Ellison
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ARome Braves | 476 | .247/.306/.370 | 4 | 18 | 50 | — | .205/.243/.304 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+/A2 orgs | 297 | .232/.276/.395 | 7 | 7 | 33 | — | .177/.205/.308 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+Florida Fire … | 51 | .188/.235/.354 | 1 | 1 | 13 | — | .143/.176/.265 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 198 | 178 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 37 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 247 | 316 | 416 | 732 | 169 | 283 | 19 | 9 | 322 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | — | 476 | 433 | 107 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 37 | 88 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 247 | 306 | 370 | 676 | 122 | 299 | 18 | 8 | 299 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 114 | 107 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 232 | 318 | 550 | 121 | 260 | 29 | 4 | 241 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Rome Braves | — | 183 | 169 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 254 | 304 | 444 | 748 | 189 | 336 | 28 | 7 | 325 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 51 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 354 | 589 | 167 | 242 | 27 | 6 | 259 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 198 | 185 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 178 | 224 | 297 | 522 | 119 | 221 | 26 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 476 | 448 | 92 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 123 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 205 | 243 | 304 | 546 | 98 | 271 | 26 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 114 | 109 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 147 | 170 | 239 | 408 | 92 | 239 | 43 | 2 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 183 | 174 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 195 | 227 | 351 | 577 | 155 | 295 | 40 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 51 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 176 | 265 | 442 | 122 | 222 | 41 | 4 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 198 | 185 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 178 | 224 | 297 | 522 | 119 | 221 | 26 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK RAW | Danville Braves | — | 198 | 178 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 37 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 247 | 316 | 416 | 732 | 169 | 283 | 19 | 9 | 322 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 476 | 448 | 92 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 123 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 205 | 243 | 304 | 546 | 98 | 273 | 26 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A RAW | Rome Braves | — | 476 | 433 | 107 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 37 | 88 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 247 | 306 | 370 | 676 | 122 | 299 | 18 | 8 | 299 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 283 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 123 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 173 | 201 | 293 | 495 | 120 | 276 | 41 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 297 | 276 | 64 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 85 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 232 | 276 | 395 | 671 | 163 | 306 | 29 | 5 | 292 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 51 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 176 | 265 | 442 | 122 | 222 | 41 | 4 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 51 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 354 | 589 | 167 | 242 | 27 | 6 | 259 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 198 | 185 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 178 | 224 | 297 | 522 | 119 | 221 | 26 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 476 | 451 | 92 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 123 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 204 | 243 | 302 | 544 | 98 | 271 | 26 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 285 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 123 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 172 | 201 | 291 | 493 | 119 | 274 | 41 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 51 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 176 | 265 | 442 | 122 | 222 | 41 | 4 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1022 | 965 | 181 | 38 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 319 | 1 | 32 | 13 | 188 | 224 | 297 | 521 | 110 | 261 | 31 | 4 | 230 | 42 | -71 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +22 | -6.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 614 | 115 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 203 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 187 | 224 | 296 | 521 | 109 | 260 | 31 | 4 | 230 | 42 | -45 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 51 PAwOBA .252 → .187 (−65)K% 27.5% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.45% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 40.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.017 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.71% | ÷0.949 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 14.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.037 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.998 | 2.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.026 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 4.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.974 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.65% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 105, K 92, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .252 → .187; ISO .167 → .117; BABIP .242 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ARome Braves · 183 PAwOBA .317 → .242 (−75)K% 28.4% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.42% | ÷0.935 | ×1.340 | — | — | 40.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.56% | ÷1.075 | ×0.660 | — | — | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.37% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | — | 19.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.066 | ×0.820 | ×1.010 | — | 5.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.067 | ×0.940 | ×1.010 | — | 3.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.27% | ÷0.753 | ×0.820 | — | — | 4.65% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 51, 1B 105, 2B 113, 3B 113, K 87, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .317 → .242; ISO .189 → .156; BABIP .336 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 114 PAwOBA .232 → .178 (−54)K% 28.9% → 42.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.95% | ÷0.963 | ×1.420 | — | — | 42.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.63% | ÷1.091 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 1.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷0.978 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 18.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.148 | ×0.960 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 3.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 1.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.929 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.59% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 130, 3B 130, K 93, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .232 → .178; ISO .121 → .088; BABIP .260 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ARome Braves · 476 PAwOBA .292 → .242 (−50)K% 18.5% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.49% | ÷0.961 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.050 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.29% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 18.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.25% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 6.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.32% | ÷1.041 | ×0.940 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 2.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.965 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 1.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 108, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .292 → .242; ISO .122 → .105; BABIP .299 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKDanville Braves · 198 PAwOBA .317 → .229 (−88)K% 18.7% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.995 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.984 | ×0.995 | 15.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.984 | ×0.995 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.984 | ×0.995 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.995 | 2.82% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .317 → .229; ISO .169 → .122; BABIP .283 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).