Chad Smith (P, Las Vegas Aviators) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Chad Smith P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.88

FIP5.00

K%23.0%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p1015.0%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

SL-1.1

FB-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	3	0	2	14	3	0	0	0%	0.8	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	7.71	1.29	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	3	0	2	14	3	0	0	0%	0.8	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	7.71	0.53	—
2017	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	0	46	196	52	14	3	0%	1.4	19.6%	8.4%	11.2%	1.7%	2.93	3.44	—
2017	22	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	0	46	196	52	14	3	0%	1.4	26.5%	7.1%	19.4%	1.5%	2.93	2.60	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	30	0	35	155	45	20	2	0%	1.2	22.4%	14.8%	7.5%	1.9%	3.57	4.13	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	30	0	35	155	45	20	2	0%	1.2	29.0%	12.9%	16.1%	1.3%	3.57	2.99	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	42	184	46	22	3	0%	1.2	19.8%	13.5%	6.2%	2.1%	4.54	4.32	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	42	184	46	22	3	0%	1.2	25.0%	12.0%	13.0%	1.6%	4.54	3.41	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	36	0	33	139	37	19	1	0%	0.9	23.4%	14.4%	9.1%	0.7%	2.97	3.31	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	36	0	33	139	37	19	1	0%	0.9	26.6%	13.7%	12.9%	0.7%	2.97	2.98	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	53	221	63	25	8	0%	1.1	26.3%	11.5%	14.8%	3.6%	4.58	4.32	+0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	53	221	63	25	8	0%	1.1	28.5%	11.3%	17.2%	3.6%	4.58	4.10	+0.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	48	233	51	36	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	3.8%	7.26	5.34	-0.4
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	48	233	51	36	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	3.8%	7.26	5.34	-0.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	48	233	51	36	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	15.5%	6.4%	3.4%	7.26	5.38	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	0	32	145	32	22	4	0%	1.3	22.1%	15.2%	6.9%	2.8%	7.11	4.81	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	13.8%	9.3%	3.1%	4.88	5.00	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	49	209	46	29	7	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.7%	8.6%	3.4%	5.04	5.19	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	OAK	43	0	45	191	41	26	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	3.6%	5.23	5.40	-0.4
2029	34	MLB MLE	OAK	39	0	41	174	36	25	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	3.9%	5.46	5.65	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	OAK	17	0	18	76	17	10	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.7%	8.6%	3.4%	5.04	5.19	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	OAK	24	0	25	106	23	15	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	3.6%	5.23	5.40	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	OAK	20	0	21	89	18	13	3	0%	1.1	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	3.9%	5.46	5.65	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	0	96	415	90	60	14	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.3%	7.3%	3.3%	5.86	4.91	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	0	200	868	188	125	29	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.3%	7.3%	3.3%	5.86	4.91	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		229	0	260	1142	248	143	28	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.5%	9.2%	2.4%	4.47	4.19	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	0	200	878	191	110	22	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.5%	9.2%	2.4%	4.47	4.19	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chad Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	23.0%	13.8%	3.1%	—	5.40	21.5%	7.7%	136	+0.40	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	85
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	83
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	81
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	80
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	80
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	76
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	76
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	76
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	74
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	74
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	73
Dan Winkler R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	31	SU	4.76	21.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.233	3.87	24.4%	10.4%	46	-0.89	2.40	231	73
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	73
David Carpenter R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.8%	2.9%	.333	3.89	21.5%	11.9%	49	-0.60	2.66	275	72
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	72
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	70
Kerry Ligtenberg R 2002 · 4.09 FIP	31	SU	4.09	18.1%	10.7%	2.1%	.237	3.86	18.8%	13.2%	114	-0.23	2.94	381	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	55	22.0%	14.0%	1.30	5.41
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57