Donovan Casey
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26 | AAAWSH | 317 | .216/.281/.345 | 7 | 6 | 40 | — | .187/.236/.289 |
| 2023 | 27 | AA/AWSH | 278 | .195/.283/.252 | 2 | 8 | 17 | — | .160/.221/.195 |
| 2024 | 28 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 323 | .246/.317/.332 | 3 | 26 | 73 | — | .112/.194/.124 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | — | 170 | 154 | 62 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 403 | 456 | 604 | 1.060 | 201 | 433 | 12 | 7 | 462 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 269 | 241 | 61 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 72 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 253 | 321 | 378 | 698 | 124 | 329 | 27 | 9 | 310 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | — | 21 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 350 | 737 | 1.087 | 421 | 385 | 29 | 5 | 436 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 101 | 94 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 267 | 351 | 618 | 138 | 298 | 34 | 7 | 277 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 445 | 403 | 109 | 18 | 9 | 20 | 37 | 140 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 270 | 336 | 509 | 845 | 238 | 363 | 31 | 8 | 367 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 147 | 134 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 179 | 247 | 291 | 538 | 112 | 289 | 39 | 6 | 245 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 385 | 350 | 106 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 111 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 303 | 363 | 483 | 846 | 180 | 405 | 29 | 7 | 373 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 57 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 255 | 375 | 447 | 822 | 191 | 263 | 14 | 14 | 363 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 317 | 287 | 62 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 97 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 216 | 281 | 345 | 626 | 129 | 296 | 31 | 7 | 279 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 258 | 231 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 83 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 199 | 277 | 255 | 533 | 56 | 297 | 32 | 9 | 249 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 20 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 133 | 350 | 200 | 550 | 67 | 250 | 35 | 25 | 284 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 98 | 87 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 161 | 255 | 184 | 439 | 23 | 250 | 32 | 7 | 217 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | INTL | Mexico | — | 225 | 202 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 49 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 282 | 344 | 396 | 740 | 114 | 353 | 22 | 8 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 170 | 159 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 308 | 349 | 440 | 789 | 132 | 356 | 18 | 4 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 269 | 248 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 101 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 253 | 294 | 547 | 93 | 299 | 38 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 21 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 300 | 632 | 932 | 368 | 270 | 43 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 101 | 97 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 198 | 258 | 456 | 93 | 272 | 44 | 4 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 445 | 412 | 78 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 28 | 189 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 189 | 246 | 362 | 608 | 172 | 294 | 42 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 147 | 137 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 70 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 131 | 185 | 197 | 382 | 66 | 251 | 48 | 4 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 385 | 357 | 93 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 138 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 261 | 311 | 392 | 703 | 132 | 386 | 36 | 5 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 317 | 294 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 111 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 187 | 236 | 289 | 526 | 102 | 268 | 35 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 258 | 239 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 101 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 163 | 219 | 197 | 415 | 33 | 271 | 39 | 6 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 20 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 118 | 250 | 176 | 426 | 59 | 200 | 50 | 15 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 98 | 89 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 112 | 194 | 124 | 317 | 11 | 215 | 40 | 5 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 170 | 159 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 308 | 349 | 440 | 789 | 132 | 352 | 18 | 4 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK RAW | Ogden Raptors | — | 170 | 154 | 62 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 403 | 456 | 604 | 1.060 | 201 | 433 | 12 | 7 | 462 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 290 | 268 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 110 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 249 | 302 | 551 | 101 | 310 | 38 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 290 | 260 | 67 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 78 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 258 | 323 | 404 | 727 | 146 | 333 | 27 | 8 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 546 | 509 | 95 | 16 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 233 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 187 | 239 | 350 | 589 | 163 | 293 | 43 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 546 | 497 | 129 | 22 | 9 | 23 | 44 | 174 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 260 | 324 | 479 | 802 | 219 | 351 | 32 | 8 | 351 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 589 | 546 | 123 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 230 | 10 | 25 | 6 | 225 | 277 | 339 | 616 | 114 | 360 | 39 | 5 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 589 | 531 | 142 | 29 | 2 | 18 | 44 | 176 | 10 | 25 | 6 | 267 | 335 | 431 | 766 | 164 | 364 | 30 | 7 | 340 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 317 | 294 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 111 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 187 | 236 | 289 | 526 | 102 | 276 | 35 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 317 | 287 | 62 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 97 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 216 | 281 | 345 | 626 | 129 | 296 | 31 | 7 | 279 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 278 | 256 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 111 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 160 | 221 | 195 | 416 | 35 | 274 | 40 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 278 | 246 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 90 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 195 | 283 | 252 | 535 | 57 | 295 | 32 | 10 | 251 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 323 | 298 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 130 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 121 | 179 | 138 | 316 | 17 | 211 | 40 | 5 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 323 | 289 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 80 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 246 | 317 | 332 | 649 | 87 | 325 | 25 | 7 | 294 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 170 | 158 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 310 | 349 | 443 | 792 | 133 | 356 | 18 | 4 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 290 | 271 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 110 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 199 | 249 | 299 | 548 | 100 | 297 | 38 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 546 | 506 | 95 | 16 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 233 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 188 | 239 | 352 | 591 | 164 | 290 | 43 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 589 | 545 | 123 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 230 | 10 | 25 | 6 | 226 | 277 | 339 | 616 | 114 | 349 | 39 | 5 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 317 | 295 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 111 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 186 | 236 | 288 | 525 | 102 | 268 | 35 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 278 | 256 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 111 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 160 | 221 | 195 | 416 | 35 | 266 | 40 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 323 | 299 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 130 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 120 | 179 | 137 | 316 | 17 | 215 | 40 | 5 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 323 | 299 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 130 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 120 | 179 | 137 | 316 | 17 | 215 | 40 | 5 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2513 | 2330 | 453 | 70 | 13 | 47 | 132 | 955 | 29 | 95 | 21 | 194 | 246 | 296 | 543 | 102 | 301 | 38 | 5 | 240 | 49 | -153 | +11 | +0 | -27 | +54 | -11.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 117 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 247 | 8 | 25 | 5 | 194 | 247 | 294 | 540 | 100 | 301 | 38 | 5 | 240 | 49 | -40 | +3 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AATulsa Drillers · 98 PAwOBA .212 → .160 (−52)K% 31.6% → 40.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.63% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 4.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 3.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.003 | ×0.840 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 2.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.142 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.063 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 128, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .212 → .160; ISO .023 → .017; BABIP .250 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 258 PAwOBA .245 → .195 (−49)K% 32.2% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.17% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.91% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×0.978 | 23.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.73% | ÷1.033 | ×0.860 | ×0.998 | ×0.978 | 3.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.115 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.92% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .245 → .195; ISO .056 → .040; BABIP .297 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 20 PAwOBA .279 → .178 (−101)K% 35.0% → 48.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.00% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 48.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.950 | 14.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.950 | 10.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.950 | 9.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.0 → −5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .279 → .178; ISO .067 → .045; BABIP .250 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 317 PAwOBA .272 → .228 (−44)K% 30.6% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.60% | ÷1.049 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.31% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.11% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 20.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 4.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.58% | ÷0.913 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.68% | ÷1.084 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.42% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .272 → .228; ISO .129 → .100; BABIP .296 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAHarrisburg Senators · 385 PAwOBA .364 → .301 (−63)K% 28.8% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.83% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.54% | ÷0.967 | ×0.940 | ×1.029 | ×0.998 | 30.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.11% | ÷1.055 | ×0.870 | ×1.029 | ×0.998 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×0.998 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.86% | ÷1.037 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.40% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .364 → .301; ISO .180 → .131; BABIP .405 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 147 PAwOBA .240 → .181 (−59)K% 38.8% → 47.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.78% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.12% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.88% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 15.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.69% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 9.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.94% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .240 → .181; ISO .112 → .078; BABIP .289 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 445 PAwOBA .359 → .263 (−96)K% 31.5% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.46% | ÷0.991 | ×1.340 | — | — | 42.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.31% | ÷0.948 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.57% | ÷1.043 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.84% | ÷0.935 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.049 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.60% | ÷0.969 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 7.21% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 110, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .359 → .263; ISO .238 → .179; BABIP .363 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATulsa Drillers · 101 PAwOBA .266 → .209 (−56)K% 33.7% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.66% | ÷0.954 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.94% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 20.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.048 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.52% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 110, 3B 85, K 91, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .266 → .209; ISO .138 → .108; BABIP .298 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .