Mauricio Llovera

Mauricio Llovera P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 30 RHP 5'11" / 224 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.51

FIP4.61

K%21.0%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p1017.7%

p2218.1%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

FB+5.4

CT-1.9

SL-2.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	VSL Phillies	11	10	47	194	43	17	1	91%	4.3	15.1%	11.0%	4.1%	0.7%	3.23	3.61	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	VSL Phillies	11	10	47	194	43	17	1	91%	4.3	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	0.5%	3.23	2.64	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	11	10	53	213	56	12	0	91%	4.8	17.9%	7.0%	10.8%	0.0%	1.87	2.48	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	11	10	53	213	56	12	0	91%	4.8	26.3%	5.6%	20.7%	0.0%	1.87	1.67	—
2017	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	30	10	86	371	94	32	2	33%	2.9	18.7%	10.2%	8.6%	0.8%	3.35	3.26	—
2017	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	30	10	86	371	94	32	2	33%	2.9	25.3%	8.6%	16.7%	0.5%	3.35	2.33	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	22	121	507	137	34	14	96%	5.3	20.8%	7.7%	13.1%	2.9%	3.72	3.90	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	23	22	121	507	137	34	14	96%	5.3	27.0%	6.7%	20.3%	2.8%	3.72	3.18	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	14	12	65	285	72	28	7	86%	4.7	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	2.5%	4.55	4.11	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	14	12	65	285	72	28	7	86%	4.7	25.3%	9.8%	15.4%	2.5%	4.55	3.57	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	1	0	1	10	1	1	0	0%	1.0	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	36.00	3.52	+0.0
2020	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	1	0	1	10	1	1	0	0%	1.0	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	36.00	4.10	+0.0
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	4	59	259	55	26	10	11%	1.5	18.9%	10.3%	8.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.22	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	4	59	259	55	26	10	11%	1.5	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	3.9%	4.14	4.77	-0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	36	150	48	10	2	3%	1.1	29.8%	6.8%	23.0%	1.4%	1.98	2.24	+1.0
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	36	150	48	10	2	3%	1.1	32.0%	6.7%	25.3%	1.3%	1.98	2.00	+1.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	4	58	252	58	18	7	8%	1.2	20.0%	7.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.53	3.94	+0.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	4	58	252	58	18	7	8%	1.2	20.0%	7.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.53	3.94	+0.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	4	58	252	58	18	7	8%	1.2	23.0%	7.1%	15.9%	2.8%	4.53	3.60	+0.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	20	85	14	8	3	18%	1.2	14.0%	10.1%	3.9%	4.1%	4.58	5.43	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	20	85	14	8	3	18%	1.2	14.0%	10.1%	3.9%	4.1%	4.58	5.43	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	3	20	85	14	8	3	18%	1.2	16.5%	9.4%	7.1%	3.5%	4.58	4.88	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	1	59	277	57	24	10	2%	1.1	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.6%	5.80	4.59	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	SEA	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.7%	11.4%	3.1%	4.51	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SEA	47	0	49	207	43	21	7	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.0%	10.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.81	-0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	SEA	43	0	45	192	38	20	7	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.3%	9.6%	3.5%	4.88	5.03	-0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	SEA	40	0	42	176	34	19	7	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	3.8%	5.10	5.27	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	SEA	17	0	18	76	16	8	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.0%	10.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.81	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	SEA	24	0	25	106	21	11	4	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.3%	9.6%	3.5%	4.88	5.03	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	SEA	27	0	28	118	23	13	4	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	3.8%	5.10	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		122	1	130	578	117	55	21	1%	1.1	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.6%	5.31	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	2	200	887	180	84	32	1%	1.1	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.6%	5.31	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		226	76	546	2326	458	208	46	34%	2.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	2.0%	3.64	3.66	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	28	200	852	168	76	17	34%	2.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	2.0%	3.64	3.66	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mauricio Llovera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.0%	9.7%	3.1%	—	5.02	19.9%	9.6%	136	+0.41	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	85
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	82
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	78
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	77
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	73
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	72
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	72
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	71
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	70
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	70
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	69
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	69
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	69
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	69
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	68
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	68
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	67
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	20.2%	10.1%	1.31	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78