Mauricio Llovera
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 30
RHP
5'11" / 224 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.51
FIP4.61
K%21.2%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p1017.7%
K%
p2218.1%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
FB+5.4
CT-1.9
SL-2.8
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | VSL Phillies | 11 | 10 | 47 | 194 | 43 | 17 | 1 | 91% | 4.3 | 15.1% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 3.23 | 3.61 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | VSL Phillies | 11 | 10 | 47 | 194 | 43 | 17 | 1 | 91% | 4.3 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 0.5% | 3.23 | 2.64 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 11 | 10 | 53 | 213 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 91% | 4.8 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 1.87 | 2.48 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 11 | 10 | 53 | 213 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 91% | 4.8 | 26.3% | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 1.87 | 1.67 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 30 | 10 | 86 | 371 | 94 | 32 | 2 | 33% | 2.9 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 1.0% | 3.35 | 3.35 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 30 | 10 | 86 | 371 | 94 | 32 | 2 | 33% | 2.9 | 25.3% | 8.6% | 16.7% | 0.5% | 3.35 | 2.33 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 23 | 22 | 121 | 507 | 137 | 34 | 14 | 96% | 5.3 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 3.68 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 23 | 22 | 121 | 507 | 137 | 34 | 14 | 96% | 5.3 | 27.0% | 6.7% | 20.3% | 2.8% | 3.72 | 3.18 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 14 | 12 | 65 | 285 | 72 | 28 | 7 | 86% | 4.7 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 4.55 | 3.93 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 14 | 12 | 65 | 285 | 72 | 28 | 7 | 86% | 4.7 | 25.3% | 9.8% | 15.4% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 3.57 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.00 | 3.52 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.00 | 4.10 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 4 | 59 | 259 | 55 | 26 | 10 | 11% | 1.5 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 4 | 59 | 259 | 55 | 26 | 10 | 11% | 1.5 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 3.9% | 4.14 | 4.77 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 36 | 150 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 3% | 1.1 | 29.8% | 6.8% | 23.0% | 1.4% | 1.98 | 2.24 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 36 | 150 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 3% | 1.1 | 32.0% | 6.7% | 25.3% | 1.3% | 1.98 | 2.00 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 4 | 58 | 252 | 58 | 18 | 7 | 8% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 4 | 58 | 252 | 58 | 18 | 7 | 8% | 1.2 | 23.0% | 7.1% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 3.60 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 3 | 20 | 85 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 18% | 1.2 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 5.33 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 3 | 20 | 85 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 18% | 1.2 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 43 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 38 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 5.03 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 122 | 1 | 130 | 578 | 117 | 56 | 21 | 1% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 5.32 | 4.57 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 2 | 200 | 887 | 180 | 86 | 32 | 1% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 5.32 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 226 | 76 | 546 | 2326 | 460 | 211 | 43 | 34% | 2.4 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 1.9% | 3.64 | 3.60 | +11.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 28 | 200 | 852 | 168 | 77 | 16 | 34% | 2.4 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 1.9% | 3.64 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mauricio Llovera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 5.03 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.42 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 83 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 82 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 78 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 78 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 76 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 72 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 72 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 71 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 70 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 70 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.48 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .335 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 43 | -0.06 | 4.23 | 241 | 70 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 69 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 69 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 69 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 69 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 69 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.21 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .301 | 3.27 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 64 | -0.94 | 3.27 | 171 | 68 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 68 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.30 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |