Mauricio Llovera
P
Tacoma Rainiers
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
5'11" / 224 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.65
FIP4.49
xFIP4.79
SIERA4.53
K%21.7%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%12.5%
IP22
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p1017.7%
K%
p2218.1%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
FB+5.4
CT-1.9
SL-2.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | VSL Phillies | 11 | 10 | 47 | 194 | 43 | 17 | 1 | 15.1% | 11.0% | 0.7% | 3.23 | 3.61 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 11 | 10 | 53 | 213 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 1.87 | 2.48 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 30 | 10 | 86 | 371 | 94 | 32 | 2 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 0.8% | 3.35 | 3.24 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 23 | 22 | 121 | 507 | 137 | 34 | 14 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 3.72 | 3.88 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 14 | 12 | 65 | 285 | 72 | 28 | 7 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 4.09 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 36.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 38 | 4 | 59 | 259 | 55 | 26 | 10 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 32 | 1 | 36 | 150 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 29.8% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 1.98 | 2.17 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 49 | 4 | 58 | 252 | 58 | 18 | 7 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 17 | 3 | 20 | 85 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 4.58 | 5.54 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 22 | — | 22 | 92 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 21 | — | 21 | 89 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 226 | 76 | 546 | 2326 | 460 | 211 | 45 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.65 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 28 | 200 | 852 | 168 | 77 | 16 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.65 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mauricio Llovera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.68 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 21 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 92 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 85 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 82 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 80 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 79 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 79 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 78 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 78 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 78 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 77 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 77 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 76 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 76 |
| Bryan Morris R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.