Adrián Martinez

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	30	30	147	5.93	5.33	23.6%	7.9%	-0.7	K 21.8% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.58
2023	26	MIX2 levels	35	13	93	6.27	5.23	16.4%	9.3%	-0.7	K 15.7% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.27
2024	27	MIX2 levels	22	1	27	9.22	6.58	19.7%	10.9%	—	K 14.1% · BB 11.6% · FIP 7.02
2027PROJ	30	MLBOAK	55	0	58	4.59	4.67	21.9%	9.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBOAK	19	0	20	4.78	4.90	21.2%	9.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBOAK	26	0	27	5.01	5.16	20.4%	10.3%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo40

Whiff%35

K%32

xwOBA vs18

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Josh Zeid (age 30) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.59

FIP4.67

K%21.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p180.350

FB-0.7

SL-2.2

CH-2.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	7	2	16	72	19	2	0	29%	2.3	17.9%	3.5%	14.5%	0.0%	4.41	2.02	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	7	2	16	72	19	2	0	29%	2.3	26.4%	2.8%	23.6%	0.0%	4.41	1.14	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	13	4	30	134	37	9	3	31%	2.3	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	3.1%	4.50	4.30	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	13	4	30	134	37	9	3	31%	2.3	27.6%	6.7%	20.9%	2.2%	4.50	2.83	—
2018	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	8	1	17	92	26	12	2	12%	2.2	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	2.4%	9.87	4.60	—
2018	21	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	8	1	17	92	26	12	2	12%	2.2	28.3%	13.0%	15.2%	2.2%	9.87	3.68	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	81	332	76	22	7	18%	2.5	16.5%	8.4%	8.1%	2.6%	3.22	4.17	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	6	81	332	76	22	7	18%	2.5	22.9%	6.6%	16.3%	2.1%	3.22	3.16	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	125	523	122	39	10	85%	4.8	19.4%	8.0%	11.4%	2.2%	3.38	3.66	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	125	523	122	39	10	85%	4.8	23.3%	7.5%	15.9%	1.9%	3.38	3.12	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	147	648	153	51	37	100%	4.9	21.8%	8.1%	13.6%	6.0%	5.93	5.58	-1.1
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	147	648	153	51	37	100%	4.9	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	5.7%	5.93	5.33	-0.7
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	13	93	432	71	40	17	37%	2.7	15.7%	8.8%	6.9%	4.3%	6.27	5.27	-0.8
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	13	93	432	71	40	17	37%	2.7	16.4%	9.3%	7.2%	3.9%	6.27	5.23	-0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	27	137	27	15	8	5%	1.2	14.1%	11.6%	2.4%	6.6%	9.22	7.02	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	27	137	27	15	8	5%	1.2	14.1%	11.6%	2.4%	6.6%	9.22	7.02	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	27	137	27	15	8	5%	1.2	19.7%	10.9%	8.8%	5.8%	9.22	6.58	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	13	113	500	100	37	21	38%	3.3	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	4.2%	5.51	4.73	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	OAK	55	0	58	245	54	23	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.3%	4.59	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	OAK	51	0	54	227	48	22	8	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.6%	4.78	4.90	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	50	210	43	22	8	0%	1.1	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	3.8%	5.01	5.16	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	OAK	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.6%	4.78	4.90	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	OAK	26	0	27	114	23	12	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	3.8%	5.01	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	13	160	699	141	57	28	16%	2.0	20.2%	8.2%	12.0%	4.1%	5.34	4.66	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		99	16	200	875	176	71	35	16%	2.0	20.2%	8.2%	12.0%	4.1%	5.34	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		174	79	538	2370	442	204	93	45%	3.1	18.6%	8.6%	10.0%	3.9%	5.16	4.77	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	29	200	882	164	76	35	45%	3.1	18.6%	8.6%	10.0%	3.9%	5.16	4.77	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrián Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	21.9%	9.5%	3.3%	—	5.02	20.8%	10.7%	104	+0.35	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	74
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	71
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	70
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	68
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	67
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	66
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	66
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	65
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	65
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	64
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	64
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	64
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	63
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	63
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	63
Ross Ohlendorf R 2013 · 4.01 FIP	30	SW	4.01	18.2%	5.3%	3.2%	.265	4.18	23.5%	14.4%	122	+0.17	3.30	617	63
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	63
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	63
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	379	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	55	20.7%	8.9%	1.48	5.08
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Elmer Singleton ('45-'59, -0 WAR*)	1.6	55	21.5%*	9.3%*	1.40*	5.08*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*