Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Pirates | 14 | 14 | 59 | 265 | 28 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 7.2% | 8.0% | -0.8% | 0.5% | 4.73 | 3.80 | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Pirates | 14 | 14 | 59 | 265 | 28 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 10.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 4.73 | 3.24 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | DSL Pirates | 5 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 1.04 | 3.22 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | DSL Pirates | 5 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 1.04 | 3.22 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 12 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 2.95 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 12 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.6% | 10.5% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 1.79 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 37 | 0 | 50 | 192 | 73 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.1% | 7.4% | 20.8% | 2.0% | 1.44 | 2.75 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 37 | 0 | 50 | 192 | 73 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 38.0% | 6.2% | 31.8% | 1.6% | 1.44 | 1.68 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 24 | 92 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 1.52 | 4.31 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 24 | 92 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.2% | 6.5% | 20.7% | 2.2% | 1.52 | 2.85 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 41 | 170 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 7.1% | 18.5% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.16 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 41 | 170 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 7.1% | 20.0% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.00 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 49 | 233 | 46 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 4.74 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 49 | 233 | 46 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 2.1% | 4.74 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 51 | 1 | 59 | 258 | 55 | 19 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.12 | 4.43 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 51 | 1 | 59 | 258 | 55 | 19 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.12 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 53 | 236 | 48 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 1.2% | 3.04 | 3.40 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 53 | 236 | 48 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 3.04 | 3.51 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 2 | 44 | 181 | 48 | 12 | 3 | 6% | 1.4 | 25.2% | 5.9% | 19.4% | 1.5% | 2.68 | 2.56 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYY | 38 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYY | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 83 | 347 | 81 | 29 | 7 | — | — | 23.4% | 8.4% | 15.0% | 2.1% | 3.23 | 3.28 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 48 | 203 | 81 | 29 | 7 | — | — | 40.0% | 14.3% | 25.7% | 3.5% | 5.59 | 3.48 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 65 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 54 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 61 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 50 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 45 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 48 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 43 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 290 | 0 | 317 | 1352 | 255 | 143 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.20 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 0 | 200 | 854 | 161 | 90 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 292 | 17 | 406 | 1738 | 338 | 146 | 32 | 6% | 1.4 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.32 | 3.54 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 8 | 200 | 855 | 167 | 72 | 16 | 6% | 1.4 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.32 | 3.54 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yerry De los Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 19.0% | 10.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.95 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 192 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 87 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 87 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 86 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 85 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 85 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.17 | 3.23 | 253 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 84 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.39 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.08 | 3.39 | 162 | 84 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 84 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 83 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 83 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 82 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 82 |
| Bryan Morris R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 1.1% | .318 | 4.83 | 16.7% | 5.9% | 39 | +1.34 | 3.49 | 102 | 82 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 80 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.91 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 22 | +0.95 | 2.88 | 312 | 80 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 80 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2029 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 80 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 60 | 18.6% | 10.9% | 1.12 | 4.72 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |