Sandro Fabian
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 507 | .252/.321/.438 | 18 | 4 | 84 | — | .214/.270/.390 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 539 | .280/.323/.500 | 24 | 6 | 86 | — | .244/.282/.414 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 582 | .269/.346/.470 | 22 | 5 | 97 | — | .242/.297/.393 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants | — | 286 | 242 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 47 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 269 | 356 | 364 | 720 | 95 | 312 | 16 | 5 | 319 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Giants | — | 174 | 159 | 54 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 340 | 375 | 522 | 897 | 182 | 388 | 16 | 4 | 380 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 504 | 480 | 133 | 30 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 88 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 277 | 298 | 408 | 707 | 131 | 317 | 17 | 2 | 308 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 450 | 406 | 81 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 107 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 200 | 262 | 325 | 588 | 126 | 241 | 24 | 6 | 262 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 187 | 167 | 48 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 287 | 357 | 413 | 770 | 126 | 328 | 18 | 7 | 344 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | — | 41 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 375 | 500 | 875 | 281 | 278 | 32 | 12 | 378 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 314 | 296 | 78 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 57 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 298 | 466 | 764 | 203 | 279 | 18 | 4 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 109 | 99 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 284 | 394 | 678 | 182 | 221 | 17 | 6 | 303 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 271 | 244 | 63 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 50 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 327 | 480 | 807 | 221 | 277 | 18 | 7 | 353 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 127 | 114 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 272 | 341 | 386 | 727 | 114 | 337 | 21 | 8 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 483 | 444 | 128 | 29 | 3 | 23 | 23 | 73 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 288 | 333 | 523 | 855 | 234 | 297 | 15 | 5 | 368 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 56 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 236 | 308 | 544 | 96 | 227 | 14 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 501 | 448 | 121 | 31 | 2 | 17 | 45 | 76 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 270 | 345 | 462 | 807 | 192 | 291 | 15 | 9 | 356 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 81 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 261 | 354 | 522 | 876 | 261 | 260 | 20 | 9 | 375 | 140 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants | — | 286 | 247 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 182 | 265 | 239 | 504 | 57 | 205 | 20 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 174 | 161 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 255 | 286 | 385 | 671 | 130 | 298 | 23 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 504 | 484 | 119 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 123 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 246 | 264 | 366 | 630 | 120 | 295 | 24 | 1 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 450 | 413 | 70 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 149 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 169 | 224 | 276 | 500 | 107 | 229 | 33 | 4 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 187 | 170 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 303 | 359 | 662 | 118 | 284 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants Black | — | 41 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 250 | 265 | 515 | 147 | 202 | 46 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 314 | 301 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 69 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 263 | 405 | 668 | 169 | 258 | 22 | 2 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 109 | 101 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 248 | 327 | 574 | 139 | 208 | 19 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 271 | 250 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 60 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 279 | 416 | 695 | 192 | 244 | 22 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 483 | 454 | 111 | 23 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 91 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 244 | 282 | 414 | 697 | 170 | 269 | 19 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 501 | 463 | 112 | 27 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 85 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 242 | 297 | 393 | 690 | 151 | 269 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants | — | 286 | 247 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 182 | 265 | 239 | 504 | 57 | 221 | 20 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Giants | — | 286 | 242 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 47 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 269 | 356 | 364 | 720 | 95 | 312 | 16 | 5 | 319 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 174 | 161 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 255 | 286 | 385 | 671 | 130 | 315 | 23 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Giants | — | 174 | 159 | 54 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 340 | 375 | 522 | 897 | 182 | 388 | 16 | 4 | 380 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 504 | 484 | 119 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 123 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 246 | 264 | 366 | 630 | 120 | 305 | 24 | 1 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 504 | 480 | 133 | 30 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 88 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 277 | 298 | 408 | 707 | 131 | 317 | 17 | 2 | 308 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 450 | 413 | 70 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 149 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 169 | 224 | 276 | 500 | 107 | 235 | 33 | 4 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 450 | 406 | 81 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 107 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 200 | 262 | 325 | 588 | 126 | 241 | 24 | 6 | 262 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 228 | 204 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 64 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 293 | 343 | 636 | 123 | 285 | 28 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 228 | 199 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 360 | 427 | 787 | 151 | 322 | 20 | 8 | 350 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 314 | 301 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 69 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 263 | 405 | 668 | 169 | 262 | 22 | 2 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 314 | 296 | 78 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 57 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 298 | 466 | 764 | 203 | 279 | 18 | 4 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 507 | 468 | 98 | 24 | 1 | 18 | 25 | 109 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 209 | 266 | 380 | 646 | 171 | 233 | 21 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 507 | 457 | 115 | 29 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 95 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 252 | 321 | 438 | 759 | 186 | 280 | 19 | 7 | 336 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 539 | 507 | 125 | 26 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 101 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 247 | 283 | 420 | 703 | 174 | 272 | 19 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 539 | 496 | 139 | 31 | 3 | 24 | 25 | 81 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 280 | 323 | 500 | 823 | 220 | 290 | 15 | 5 | 355 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 582 | 535 | 132 | 32 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 99 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 247 | 303 | 404 | 707 | 157 | 274 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 582 | 517 | 139 | 34 | 2 | 22 | 52 | 92 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 269 | 346 | 470 | 816 | 201 | 287 | 16 | 9 | 359 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants | — | 286 | 256 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 176 | 265 | 230 | 496 | 55 | 205 | 20 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 174 | 165 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 248 | 286 | 376 | 661 | 127 | 298 | 23 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 504 | 487 | 119 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 123 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 244 | 264 | 363 | 628 | 119 | 295 | 24 | 1 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 450 | 418 | 70 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 149 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 167 | 224 | 273 | 497 | 105 | 229 | 33 | 4 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 228 | 205 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 64 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 220 | 293 | 341 | 635 | 122 | 269 | 28 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 314 | 300 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 69 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 263 | 407 | 669 | 170 | 258 | 22 | 2 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 507 | 466 | 98 | 24 | 1 | 18 | 25 | 109 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 210 | 266 | 382 | 648 | 172 | 234 | 21 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 539 | 508 | 125 | 26 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 101 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 246 | 283 | 419 | 703 | 173 | 269 | 19 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 582 | 534 | 132 | 32 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 99 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 247 | 303 | 404 | 707 | 157 | 269 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 582 | 534 | 132 | 32 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 99 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 247 | 303 | 404 | 707 | 157 | 269 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3584 | 3320 | 746 | 152 | 14 | 95 | 140 | 811 | 73 | 29 | 17 | 225 | 271 | 365 | 636 | 140 | 265 | 23 | 4 | 272 | 71 | -126 | -1 | -0 | -38 | +78 | -8.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 136 | 28 | 3 | 17 | 25 | 147 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 226 | 271 | 367 | 639 | 141 | 267 | 23 | 4 | 272 | 71 | -23 | -0 | -0 | -7 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAARound Rock Express · 501 PAwOBA .347 → .301 (−46)K% 15.2% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.17% | ÷1.069 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.78% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.09% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×1.010 | ×1.018 | 18.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.018 | 7.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.010 | ×1.018 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.57% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .347 → .301; ISO .192 → .158; BABIP .291 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARound Rock Express · 483 PAwOBA .361 → .302 (−60)K% 15.1% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.11% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.68% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×1.033 | 18.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.82% | ÷1.044 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×1.033 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.918 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×1.033 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.20% | ÷1.035 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.33% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .361 → .302; ISO .234 → .175; BABIP .297 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 271 PAwOBA .345 → .293 (−52)K% 18.5% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.45% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.21% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.53% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 16.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.25% | ÷1.030 | ×0.840 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 6.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.19% | ÷0.915 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.48% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .345 → .293; ISO .221 → .191; BABIP .277 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAARound Rock Express · 109 PAwOBA .295 → .254 (−41)K% 16.5% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.51% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.42% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.58% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×0.984 | ×1.048 | 13.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.048 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.94% | ÷0.957 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 97, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .295 → .254; ISO .182 → .146; BABIP .221 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 314 PAwOBA .325 → .281 (−44)K% 18.2% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.15% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.50% | ÷1.134 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 2.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.50% | ÷0.970 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×1.027 | 19.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.44% | ÷1.098 | ×0.870 | ×0.976 | ×1.027 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.027 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.28% | ÷0.923 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 5.45% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 101, BB 127 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .325 → .281; ISO .203 → .169; BABIP .279 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+San Jose Giants · 187 PAwOBA .338 → .283 (−56)K% 17.6% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.975 | ×1.340 | — | — | 24.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.49% | ÷0.936 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.14% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.36% | ÷1.017 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 24.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.99% | ÷0.973 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.903 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷0.947 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 3.72% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 81, K 95, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .338 → .283; ISO .126 → .113; BABIP .328 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Giants Black · 41 PAwOBA .378 → .252 (−126)K% 31.7% → 45.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.32% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 8.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 11.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 8.09% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .378 → .252; ISO .281 → .189; BABIP .278 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+San Jose Giants · 450 PAwOBA .257 → .221 (−37)K% 23.8% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.78% | ÷0.959 | ×1.340 | — | — | 33.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.78% | ÷0.971 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 4.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.06% | ÷0.987 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×1.042 | 16.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | ×1.014 | ×1.042 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.014 | ×1.042 | 0.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.34% | ÷0.924 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 3.47% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .257 → .221; ISO .126 → .111; BABIP .241 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .