Jason Lopez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 148 | .248/.320/.391 | 4 | 0 | 72 | — | .175/.234/.282 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 49 | .233/.312/.349 | 1 | 0 | 57 | — | .217/.308/.391 |
| 2024 | 26 | INTLBravos de Mar… | 25 | .261/.292/.348 | 0 | 0 | 73 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 172 | 146 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 240 | 343 | 301 | 645 | 62 | 283 | 16 | 13 | 298 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | — | 30 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 276 | 346 | 622 | 154 | 222 | 27 | 3 | 275 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | DSL Yankees | — | 25 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100 | 280 | 150 | 430 | 50 | 125 | 16 | 16 | 229 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | — | 50 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 229 | 304 | 534 | 109 | 243 | 22 | 4 | 228 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 274 | 256 | 73 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 57 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 285 | 330 | 453 | 783 | 168 | 340 | 21 | 5 | 345 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | — | 246 | 220 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 59 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 281 | 327 | 608 | 118 | 261 | 24 | 8 | 273 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 188 | 163 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 58 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 196 | 303 | 307 | 610 | 110 | 277 | 31 | 13 | 284 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 45 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 318 | 189 | 507 | 280 | 27 | 13 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 112 | 99 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 288 | 313 | 601 | 111 | 257 | 25 | 11 | 274 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 36 | 34 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 382 | 417 | 618 | 1.034 | 235 | 440 | 19 | 6 | 452 | 192 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 26 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 385 | 455 | 839 | 182 | 357 | 27 | 12 | 377 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 23 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 238 | 465 | 48 | 308 | 35 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 25 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 292 | 348 | 639 | 87 | 353 | 28 | 4 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 172 | 152 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 151 | 237 | 178 | 414 | 26 | 183 | 20 | 9 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees West | — | 30 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 241 | 308 | 549 | 154 | 178 | 40 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees | — | 25 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 95 | 240 | 143 | 383 | 48 | 80 | 20 | 12 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 50 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 208 | 283 | 491 | 109 | 243 | 32 | 4 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 274 | 262 | 62 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 77 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 237 | 267 | 385 | 653 | 149 | 306 | 28 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 246 | 225 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 85 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 160 | 219 | 253 | 472 | 93 | 230 | 35 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 188 | 172 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 169 | 239 | 256 | 495 | 87 | 263 | 37 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 112 | 103 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 234 | 282 | 516 | 107 | 232 | 31 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 308 | 391 | 699 | 174 | 338 | 35 | 8 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 172 | 152 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 151 | 237 | 178 | 414 | 26 | 190 | 20 | 9 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 172 | 146 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 240 | 343 | 301 | 645 | 62 | 283 | 16 | 13 | 298 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees West | — | 30 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 241 | 308 | 549 | 154 | 214 | 40 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Yankees West | — | 30 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 276 | 346 | 622 | 154 | 222 | 27 | 3 | 275 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees | — | 25 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 95 | 240 | 143 | 383 | 48 | 125 | 20 | 12 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Yankees | — | 25 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100 | 280 | 150 | 430 | 50 | 125 | 16 | 16 | 229 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 308 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 93 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 231 | 262 | 373 | 635 | 143 | 301 | 29 | 3 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 324 | 302 | 82 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 68 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 272 | 315 | 430 | 745 | 159 | 325 | 21 | 5 | 327 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 246 | 225 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 85 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 160 | 219 | 253 | 472 | 93 | 234 | 35 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 246 | 220 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 59 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 281 | 327 | 608 | 118 | 261 | 24 | 8 | 273 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 233 | 211 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 86 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 171 | 246 | 261 | 506 | 90 | 264 | 37 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 233 | 200 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 70 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 195 | 306 | 285 | 591 | 90 | 278 | 30 | 13 | 277 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 148 | 136 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 231 | 257 | 489 | 88 | 236 | 31 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 148 | 133 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 320 | 391 | 711 | 143 | 305 | 24 | 9 | 317 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 49 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 292 | 326 | 617 | 116 | 320 | 35 | 8 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 49 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 312 | 349 | 661 | 116 | 333 | 31 | 8 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL MLE | Bravos de Margarita | — | 25 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 292 | 348 | 639 | 87 | 353 | 28 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL RAW | Bravos de Margarita | — | 25 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 292 | 348 | 639 | 87 | 353 | 28 | 4 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 172 | 153 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 150 | 237 | 176 | 413 | 26 | 183 | 20 | 9 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees West | — | 30 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 148 | 241 | 296 | 538 | 148 | 178 | 40 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees | — | 25 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 95 | 240 | 143 | 383 | 48 | 80 | 20 | 12 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 308 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 93 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 231 | 262 | 373 | 635 | 143 | 296 | 29 | 3 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 246 | 227 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 85 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 159 | 219 | 251 | 470 | 93 | 230 | 35 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 233 | 210 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 86 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 171 | 246 | 262 | 508 | 90 | 263 | 37 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 148 | 136 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 231 | 257 | 489 | 88 | 232 | 31 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 49 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 292 | 318 | 610 | 114 | 338 | 35 | 8 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1252 | 1145 | 210 | 51 | 2 | 19 | 82 | 385 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 183 | 244 | 281 | 525 | 98 | 254 | 31 | 7 | 227 | 40 | -90 | +2 | +0 | +22 | +27 | -3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 109 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 200 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 184 | 245 | 281 | 526 | 98 | 254 | 31 | 7 | 227 | 40 | -47 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AABiloxi Shuckers · 26 PAwOBA .368 → .296 (−71)K% 26.9% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷0.924 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 3.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 24.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.827 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 7.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.055 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.04% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 65, 3B 80, K 85, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .368 → .296; ISO .182 → .142; BABIP .357 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABiloxi Shuckers · 112 PAwOBA .270 → .219 (−51)K% 25.0% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.027 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 7.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.31% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.012 | 16.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.973 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.012 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.010 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.012 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.25% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 112, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .270 → .219; ISO .111 → .094; BABIP .257 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASomerset Patriots · 188 PAwOBA .275 → .227 (−48)K% 30.9% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.85% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 8.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.90% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 20.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.81% | ÷0.905 | ×0.870 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 3.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.81% | ÷1.053 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.90% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .275 → .227; ISO .110 → .091; BABIP .277 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Tampa Tarpons · 246 PAwOBA .270 → .216 (−54)K% 24.0% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.98% | ÷0.989 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.13% | ÷1.055 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 5.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 14.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.954 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 8.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.960 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.34% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 114, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .270 → .216; ISO .118 → .102; BABIP .261 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ACharleston RiverDogs · 274 PAwOBA .336 → .280 (−56)K% 20.8% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.80% | ÷0.991 | ×1.340 | — | — | 28.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.47% | ÷1.092 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 3.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.12% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.030 | 21.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.55% | ÷0.961 | ×0.820 | ×0.980 | ×1.030 | 8.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.980 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.02% | ÷0.811 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 4.18% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 98, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .336 → .280; ISO .168 → .151; BABIP .340 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Tampa Tarpons · 50 PAwOBA .231 → .213 (−18)K% 22.0% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.00% | ÷1.004 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.042 | 3.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 13.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷0.891 | ×0.960 | — | ×1.042 | 9.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.983 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 2.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.205 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 101, 2B 78, 3B 97, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .231 → .213; ISO .109 → .104; BABIP .243 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 DSLDSL Yankees · 25 PAwOBA .224 → .153 (−72)K% 16.0% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 11.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.995 | 4.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.995 | 3.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .224 → .153; ISO .050 → .031; BABIP .125 → .080. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKGCL Yankees West · 30 PAwOBA .277 → .200 (−77)K% 26.7% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 2.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 4.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 13.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 4.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 4.43% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .277 → .200; ISO .154 → .109; BABIP .222 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .