Joseph Rosa
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | INTLLeones del Es… | 70 | .177/.271/.242 | 0 | 0 | 51 | — | |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 335 | .245/.367/.350 | 4 | 12 | 69 | — | .211/.308/.298 |
| 2024 | 27 | INTLVenados de Ma… | 70 | .236/.391/.291 | 0 | 3 | 106 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners 1 | — | 314 | 271 | 84 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 29 | 36 | 8 | 21 | 9 | 310 | 393 | 399 | 791 | 89 | 354 | 11 | 9 | 353 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 169 | 154 | 47 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 305 | 348 | 455 | 802 | 149 | 354 | 15 | 5 | 344 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 18 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 389 | 214 | 603 | 231 | 6 | 22 | 306 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 483 | 428 | 93 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 117 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 217 | 301 | 285 | 586 | 68 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 271 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 154 | 130 | 36 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 277 | 373 | 415 | 789 | 138 | 361 | 22 | 11 | 347 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | West Virginia Power | — | 318 | 272 | 73 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 64 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 268 | 368 | 371 | 740 | 103 | 337 | 20 | 10 | 337 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 54 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 226 | 224 | 451 | 61 | 222 | 24 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 17 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 412 | 462 | 873 | 231 | 286 | 29 | 24 | 393 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 337 | 295 | 75 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 81 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 254 | 343 | 424 | 767 | 169 | 322 | 24 | 10 | 342 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 70 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 177 | 271 | 242 | 513 | 65 | 224 | 19 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 121 | 105 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 367 | 362 | 729 | 86 | 372 | 23 | 11 | 332 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 185 | 149 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 55 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 235 | 374 | 369 | 743 | 134 | 333 | 30 | 15 | 338 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 29 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 321 | 174 | 495 | 333 | 38 | 17 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 70 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 236 | 391 | 291 | 682 | 55 | 342 | 24 | 16 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners 1 | — | 314 | 280 | 58 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 44 | 8 | 21 | 9 | 207 | 279 | 257 | 536 | 50 | 238 | 14 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 169 | 157 | 38 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 242 | 274 | 363 | 637 | 121 | 285 | 22 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 18 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 230 | 6 | 17 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 483 | 442 | 79 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 161 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 179 | 242 | 229 | 471 | 50 | 262 | 33 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 154 | 135 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 215 | 293 | 311 | 604 | 96 | 298 | 31 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 318 | 283 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 84 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 212 | 292 | 290 | 582 | 78 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 353 | 429 | 782 | 214 | 283 | 35 | 18 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 337 | 308 | 63 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 111 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 205 | 269 | 331 | 600 | 127 | 287 | 33 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 121 | 108 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 308 | 296 | 605 | 65 | 338 | 28 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 185 | 157 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 68 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 197 | 308 | 299 | 607 | 102 | 301 | 37 | 11 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners 1 | — | 314 | 280 | 58 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 44 | 8 | 21 | 9 | 207 | 279 | 257 | 536 | 50 | 244 | 14 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Mariners 1 | — | 314 | 271 | 84 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 29 | 36 | 8 | 21 | 9 | 310 | 393 | 399 | 791 | 89 | 354 | 11 | 9 | 353 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 169 | 157 | 38 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 242 | 274 | 363 | 637 | 121 | 305 | 22 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Mariners | — | 169 | 154 | 47 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 305 | 348 | 455 | 802 | 149 | 354 | 15 | 5 | 344 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 18 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 214 | 6 | 17 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | Clinton LumberKings | — | 18 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 389 | 214 | 603 | 231 | 6 | 22 | 306 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 483 | 442 | 79 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 161 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 179 | 242 | 229 | 471 | 50 | 269 | 33 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A RAW | Clinton LumberKings | — | 483 | 428 | 93 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 117 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 217 | 301 | 285 | 586 | 68 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 271 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 472 | 419 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 130 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 215 | 292 | 305 | 598 | 91 | 297 | 28 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 472 | 402 | 109 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 98 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 271 | 370 | 386 | 755 | 114 | 344 | 21 | 11 | 340 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL MLE | Leones del Escogido | — | 54 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 226 | 224 | 451 | 61 | 222 | 24 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL RAW | Leones del Escogido | — | 54 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 226 | 224 | 451 | 61 | 222 | 24 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 354 | 322 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 117 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 202 | 270 | 323 | 593 | 121 | 294 | 33 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 354 | 308 | 78 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 86 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 253 | 347 | 425 | 772 | 172 | 321 | 24 | 11 | 344 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL MLE | Leones del Escogido | — | 70 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 177 | 271 | 242 | 513 | 65 | 224 | 19 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL RAW | Leones del Escogido | — | 70 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 177 | 271 | 242 | 513 | 65 | 224 | 19 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 335 | 291 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 112 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 213 | 306 | 296 | 602 | 82 | 328 | 33 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 335 | 277 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 94 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 245 | 367 | 350 | 717 | 105 | 350 | 28 | 14 | 328 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL MLE | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 70 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 236 | 391 | 291 | 682 | 55 | 342 | 24 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL RAW | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 70 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 236 | 391 | 291 | 682 | 55 | 342 | 24 | 16 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners 1 | — | 314 | 283 | 58 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 44 | 8 | 21 | 9 | 205 | 279 | 254 | 534 | 49 | 238 | 14 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 169 | 160 | 38 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 237 | 274 | 356 | 631 | 119 | 285 | 22 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 18 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 230 | 6 | 17 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 483 | 443 | 79 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 161 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 178 | 242 | 228 | 470 | 50 | 262 | 33 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 472 | 423 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 130 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 213 | 292 | 303 | 595 | 90 | 286 | 28 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 354 | 321 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 117 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 202 | 270 | 324 | 594 | 121 | 287 | 33 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 335 | 293 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 112 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 212 | 306 | 294 | 600 | 82 | 316 | 33 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2339 | 2092 | 427 | 69 | 20 | 19 | 173 | 646 | 43 | 100 | 47 | 204 | 279 | 283 | 562 | 79 | 283 | 28 | 7 | 228 | 40 | -166 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +51 | -10.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 119 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 48 | 180 | 12 | 28 | 13 | 205 | 279 | 284 | 563 | 79 | 285 | 28 | 7 | 228 | 40 | -46 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AABowie Baysox · 185 PAwOBA .336 → .268 (−67)K% 29.7% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.73% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.14% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 10.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.60% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 25.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 3.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.71% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .336 → .268; ISO .134 → .095; BABIP .333 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 121 PAwOBA .327 → .278 (−48)K% 23.1% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.14% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.74% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.97% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×1.013 | ×1.018 | 24.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.69% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×1.018 | 9.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.013 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .327 → .278; ISO .086 → .071; BABIP .372 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 337 PAwOBA .335 → .257 (−77)K% 24.0% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.04% | ÷0.985 | ×1.350 | — | — | 32.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.09% | ÷1.125 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.56% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×1.035 | ×0.988 | 19.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.35% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×0.988 | 7.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.929 | ×0.820 | ×1.035 | ×0.988 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.74% | ÷1.078 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 2.84% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 86, K 97, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .335 → .257; ISO .169 → .125; BABIP .322 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 17 PAwOBA .384 → .312 (−72)K% 29.4% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.045 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 16.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 25.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 9.46% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .384 → .312; ISO .231 → .179; BABIP .286 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AWest Virginia Power · 318 PAwOBA .332 → .258 (−73)K% 20.1% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.13% | ÷1.026 | ×1.340 | — | — | 26.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.38% | ÷1.013 | ×0.660 | — | — | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.14% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 2.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.48% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 21.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.21% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | — | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | — | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.016 | ×0.820 | — | — | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .332 → .258; ISO .103 → .081; BABIP .337 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Modesto Nuts · 154 PAwOBA .343 → .268 (−75)K% 22.1% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.08% | ÷0.976 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.04% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷1.005 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.46% | ÷1.050 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 8.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.022 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.768 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 1.26% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 54, 1B 101, 2B 110, 3B 104, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .343 → .268; ISO .138 → .110; BABIP .361 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AClinton LumberKings · 483 PAwOBA .266 → .214 (−52)K% 24.2% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.22% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.08% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.015 | 23.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.25% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.015 | 1.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.015 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.93% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .266 → .214; ISO .068 → .053; BABIP .283 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AClinton LumberKings · 18 PAwOBA .300 → .261 (−39)K% 5.6% → 7.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.972 | ×1.360 | — | — | 7.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 15.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 22.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 90, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .300 → .261; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .