Norwith Gudiño prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Norwith Gudiño P Worcester Red Sox

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 248 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%16.5%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	15	8	54	230	54	9	1	53%	3.6	16.0%	4.9%	11.1%	0.6%	3.52	2.71	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	15	8	54	230	54	9	1	53%	3.6	23.5%	3.9%	19.6%	0.4%	3.52	1.83	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	12	12	51	209	40	13	0	100%	4.2	13.0%	7.8%	5.2%	0.0%	2.84	2.99	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	12	12	51	209	40	13	0	100%	4.2	19.1%	6.2%	12.9%	0.0%	2.84	2.29	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	13	13	74	293	83	8	1	100%	5.7	19.3%	3.4%	15.8%	0.5%	1.82	2.17	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	13	13	74	293	83	8	1	100%	5.7	28.3%	2.7%	25.6%	0.3%	1.82	1.36	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	34	137	35	7	2	86%	4.9	19.5%	6.6%	12.9%	2.0%	3.15	3.37	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	34	137	35	7	2	86%	4.9	25.5%	5.1%	20.4%	1.5%	3.15	2.43	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	22	80	38	4	1	29%	3.1	33.0%	6.3%	26.7%	2.1%	0.41	2.29	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	2	22	80	38	4	1	29%	3.1	47.5%	5.0%	42.5%	1.2%	0.41	0.78	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	5	60	252	86	23	9	16%	1.9	28.9%	9.8%	19.2%	4.0%	3.90	4.10	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	5	60	252	86	23	9	16%	1.9	34.1%	9.1%	25.0%	3.6%	3.90	3.33	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	26	6	48	218	60	31	13	23%	1.8	24.2%	14.9%	9.3%	6.6%	8.87	6.59	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	26	6	48	218	60	31	13	23%	1.8	27.5%	14.2%	13.3%	6.0%	8.87	6.08	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	22	8	55	261	33	29	5	36%	2.5	10.9%	10.0%	0.9%	2.1%	5.73	4.60	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	22	8	55	261	33	29	5	36%	2.5	10.9%	10.0%	0.9%	2.1%	5.73	4.60	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	22	8	55	261	33	29	5	36%	2.5	12.6%	11.1%	1.5%	1.9%	5.73	4.66	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.5%	9.6%	6.9%	2.9%	4.91	4.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BOS	33	0	35	147	25	15	5	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.9%	6.9%	3.2%	4.97	5.05	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	BOS	12	0	13	55	9	5	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.9%	6.9%	3.2%	4.97	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	9	5	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.9%	6.9%	3.2%	4.97	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	141	78	31	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.9%	6.9%	3.2%	4.97	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		134	60	398	1680	328	135	37	45%	3.0	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	2.2%	3.92	3.69	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	30	200	845	165	68	19	45%	3.0	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	2.2%	3.92	3.69	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Norwith Gudiño (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	16.5%	9.6%	2.9%	—	5.05	16.8%	6.9%	35	+0.14	—	—	—
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	79
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	78
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	77
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	76
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	75
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	74
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	73
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	72
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	71
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	71
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	71
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	71
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	71
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	71
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	71
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	70
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	69
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	68
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	68
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	16.7%	9.7%	1.18	4.94
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Travis Miller ('02)	1.3	45	16.3%	9.2%	0.91	5.05