Odalvi Javier prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Odalvi Javier P Harrisburg Senators

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%19.6%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	10	1	19	85	18	9	2	10%	1.9	14.4%	13.2%	1.2%	3.3%	2.37	5.37	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	10	1	19	85	18	9	2	10%	1.9	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	2.4%	2.37	3.99	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	12	6	45	189	34	12	1	50%	3.7	12.2%	7.9%	4.3%	0.7%	2.62	3.48	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	12	6	45	189	34	12	1	50%	3.7	18.0%	6.3%	11.6%	0.5%	2.62	2.67	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	13	13	63	276	50	22	3	100%	4.8	12.3%	10.0%	2.4%	1.5%	3.14	4.16	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	13	13	63	276	50	22	3	100%	4.8	18.1%	8.0%	10.1%	1.1%	3.14	3.18	—
2018	21	A MLE	Rome Braves	26	25	126	565	133	58	14	96%	4.8	17.4%	12.1%	5.3%	3.7%	4.14	5.17	—
2018	21	A RAW	Rome Braves	26	25	126	565	133	58	14	96%	4.8	23.5%	10.3%	13.3%	2.5%	4.14	3.81	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	146	625	117	59	15	100%	5.6	13.9%	11.1%	2.9%	3.6%	3.70	5.31	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	146	625	117	59	15	100%	5.6	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	2.4%	3.70	4.05	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	24	12	76	315	80	31	5	50%	3.2	20.6%	10.8%	9.7%	2.2%	3.20	3.95	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	24	12	76	315	80	31	5	50%	3.2	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	1.6%	3.20	3.07	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	60	244	69	22	2	2%	1.3	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	1.2%	2.56	2.95	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	60	244	69	22	2	2%	1.3	28.3%	9.0%	19.3%	0.8%	2.56	2.33	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	51	249	48	40	8	0%	1.4	16.0%	16.0%	0.0%	3.4%	6.22	5.63	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	51	249	48	40	8	0%	1.4	16.0%	16.0%	0.0%	3.4%	6.22	5.63	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	51	249	48	40	8	0%	1.4	19.3%	16.1%	3.2%	3.2%	6.22	5.63	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.0%	5.06	5.06	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	WSH	31	0	33	138	27	17	4	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	3.2%	5.09	5.16	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	10	42	8	5	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	3.2%	5.09	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	8	5	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	3.2%	5.09	4.78	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	98	20	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	3.2%	5.09	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		193	84	585	2548	414	286	70	44%	3.0	16.2%	11.2%	5.0%	2.7%	3.65	4.66	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	29	200	871	141	98	24	44%	3.0	16.2%	11.2%	5.0%	2.7%	3.65	4.66	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Odalvi Javier (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	19.6%	12.4%	3.0%	—	5.16	19.6%	7.3%	33	+0.10	—	—	—
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	73
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	73
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	71
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	70
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	70
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	70
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	69
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	69
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	68
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	68
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	67
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	67
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	67
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	67
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	67
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	67
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	345	66
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	66
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	242	65
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	19.6%	12.4%	1.21	5.07
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26