Jorge Guzmán prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jorge Guzmán P Sacramento River Cats

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 246 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%19.3%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

CH-0.8

FB-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	17	12	55	269	29	30	2	71%	3.3	7.3%	13.9%	-6.6%	1.0%	5.04	4.82	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	17	12	55	269	29	30	2	71%	3.3	10.8%	11.2%	-0.4%	0.7%	5.04	4.15	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	13	8	40	168	54	17	1	62%	3.1	21.9%	12.6%	9.2%	0.8%	4.05	3.31	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	13	8	40	168	54	17	1	62%	3.1	32.1%	10.1%	22.0%	0.6%	4.05	2.00	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	21	21	96	430	101	64	7	100%	4.6	18.1%	17.1%	1.0%	2.4%	4.03	5.05	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	21	21	96	430	101	64	7	100%	4.6	23.5%	14.9%	8.6%	1.6%	4.03	3.94	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	25	24	139	562	127	71	13	96%	5.5	18.3%	13.9%	4.4%	3.0%	3.50	4.97	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	25	24	139	562	127	71	13	96%	5.5	22.6%	12.6%	10.0%	2.3%	3.50	4.02	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	1	0	1	7	0	1	2	0%	1.0	0.0%	14.3%	-14.3%	28.6%	18.00	20.59	-0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	1	0	1	7	0	1	2	0%	1.0	0.0%	14.3%	-14.3%	28.6%	18.00	32.10	-0.3
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	17	85	23	14	1	0%	1.5	25.1%	13.5%	11.6%	1.8%	6.35	3.66	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	17	85	23	14	1	0%	1.5	27.1%	16.5%	10.6%	1.2%	6.35	3.63	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	0	17	80	24	11	2	0%	1.1	30.0%	13.8%	16.2%	2.5%	3.63	3.68	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	0	17	80	24	11	2	0%	1.1	30.0%	13.8%	16.2%	2.5%	3.63	3.73	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	27	0	36	161	26	26	2	0%	1.3	13.9%	14.5%	-0.6%	1.3%	3.00	4.48	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	27	0	36	161	26	26	2	0%	1.3	13.9%	14.5%	-0.6%	1.3%	3.00	4.48	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	27	0	36	161	26	26	2	0%	1.3	16.1%	16.1%	0.0%	1.2%	3.00	4.54	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	3	22	3	6	2	0%	0.9	13.6%	27.3%	-13.6%	9.1%	27.00	17.35	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	2.9%	4.86	4.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	84	16	10	3	0%	1.1	19.3%	11.3%	8.1%	3.1%	4.92	5.00	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	SF	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.3%	8.1%	3.1%	4.92	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	53	9	10	3	0%	1.0	17.0%	17.9%	-0.9%	5.6%	10.80	7.02	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	1059	180	200	60	0%	1.0	17.0%	17.9%	-0.9%	5.6%	10.80	7.02	-5.7
Career	—	MLE		131	65	401	1762	305	257	39	50%	3.1	17.3%	14.6%	2.7%	2.2%	4.01	4.71	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	32	200	878	152	128	19	50%	3.1	17.3%	14.6%	2.7%	2.2%	4.01	4.71	-4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Guzmán (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	19.3%	11.1%	2.9%	—	5.00	19.3%	8.1%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	71
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	70
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	69
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	67
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	66
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	66
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	65
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	65
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	65
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	64
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	64
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	64
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	64
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	63
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	63
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	62
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	62
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	62
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	62
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	242	61