Billy Fleming
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+3 orgs | 370 | .254/.306/.411 | 10 | 4 | 69 | — | .230/.270/.367 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 289 | .290/.352/.440 | 6 | 2 | 80 | — | .252/.299/.372 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 214 | .273/.358/.401 | 5 | 0 | 64 | — | .221/.283/.324 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees1 | — | 88 | 72 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 375 | 477 | 486 | 963 | 111 | 409 | 9 | 12 | 424 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 42 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 341 | 444 | 786 | 194 | 310 | 19 | 7 | 341 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | — | 19 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 316 | 294 | 610 | 59 | 267 | 11 | 11 | 284 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 107 | 97 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 330 | 387 | 361 | 748 | 31 | 400 | 17 | 8 | 340 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | — | 65 | 54 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 444 | 524 | 648 | 1.172 | 204 | 468 | 11 | 9 | 498 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 144 | 128 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 322 | 336 | 658 | 94 | 286 | 16 | 10 | 299 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | — | 162 | 146 | 48 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 329 | 395 | 479 | 875 | 151 | 409 | 20 | 9 | 389 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 57 | 56 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 268 | 281 | 375 | 656 | 107 | 286 | 11 | 2 | 291 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 289 | 259 | 66 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 255 | 316 | 429 | 744 | 174 | 257 | 12 | 7 | 322 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | — | 24 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 250 | 304 | 554 | 87 | 250 | 12 | 4 | 249 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 101 | 91 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 333 | 352 | 685 | 77 | 342 | 19 | 6 | 306 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 188 | 168 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 298 | 362 | 488 | 850 | 190 | 338 | 19 | 9 | 369 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | New Orleans Baby Cakes | — | 143 | 126 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 324 | 341 | 665 | 103 | 325 | 29 | 10 | 303 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 71 | 61 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 344 | 429 | 525 | 953 | 180 | 422 | 21 | 11 | 416 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 88 | 76 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 303 | 384 | 395 | 778 | 92 | 327 | 14 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 42 | 37 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 317 | 432 | 750 | 189 | 290 | 24 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 19 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 263 | 278 | 541 | 56 | 237 | 16 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 107 | 100 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 260 | 302 | 280 | 582 | 20 | 345 | 23 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Yankees | — | 65 | 56 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 429 | 536 | 964 | 179 | 366 | 15 | 6 | 392 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 144 | 133 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 273 | 301 | 573 | 83 | 264 | 19 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 162 | 150 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 273 | 327 | 413 | 740 | 140 | 377 | 29 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 57 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 263 | 357 | 620 | 107 | 261 | 12 | 2 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 289 | 265 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 230 | 277 | 377 | 654 | 147 | 231 | 15 | 4 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 24 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 208 | 261 | 469 | 87 | 220 | 17 | 4 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 101 | 93 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 283 | 301 | 584 | 65 | 292 | 23 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 188 | 173 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 260 | 308 | 410 | 719 | 150 | 303 | 23 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Baby Cakes | — | 143 | 131 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 239 | 244 | 484 | 69 | 281 | 39 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 71 | 64 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 371 | 484 | 856 | 172 | 377 | 25 | 7 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 88 | 76 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 303 | 384 | 395 | 778 | 92 | 348 | 14 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Yankees1 | — | 88 | 72 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 375 | 477 | 486 | 963 | 111 | 409 | 9 | 12 | 424 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 233 | 211 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 275 | 332 | 365 | 697 | 90 | 339 | 21 | 6 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A RAW | 4 teams | — | 233 | 204 | 69 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 35 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 338 | 410 | 446 | 857 | 108 | 392 | 15 | 9 | 380 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 283 | 70 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 247 | 302 | 360 | 662 | 113 | 324 | 25 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 306 | 274 | 79 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 288 | 361 | 412 | 773 | 124 | 349 | 18 | 9 | 347 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 370 | 345 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 54 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 223 | 262 | 348 | 610 | 125 | 238 | 15 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 370 | 338 | 86 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 44 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 254 | 306 | 411 | 717 | 157 | 261 | 12 | 6 | 313 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 266 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 65 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 252 | 299 | 372 | 671 | 120 | 310 | 22 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 289 | 259 | 75 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 290 | 352 | 440 | 792 | 151 | 340 | 19 | 8 | 347 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 195 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 74 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 283 | 323 | 606 | 103 | 328 | 35 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 214 | 187 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 358 | 401 | 760 | 128 | 359 | 26 | 11 | 341 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 88 | 78 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 384 | 385 | 768 | 90 | 327 | 14 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 233 | 213 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 272 | 332 | 362 | 693 | 89 | 332 | 21 | 6 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 281 | 70 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 249 | 302 | 363 | 665 | 114 | 324 | 25 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 370 | 349 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 54 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 221 | 262 | 344 | 606 | 123 | 235 | 15 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 269 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 65 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 249 | 299 | 368 | 667 | 119 | 299 | 22 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 195 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 74 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 283 | 323 | 606 | 103 | 313 | 35 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1500 | 1376 | 338 | 72 | 6 | 23 | 84 | 329 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 246 | 298 | 357 | 655 | 111 | 302 | 22 | 6 | 284 | 78 | -38 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +32 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 147 | 31 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 143 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 247 | 298 | 359 | 657 | 112 | 303 | 22 | 6 | 284 | 78 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 143 PAwOBA .298 → .219 (−79)K% 28.7% → 39.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.67% | ÷0.950 | ×1.290 | — | — | 38.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.49% | ÷1.085 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 6.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.06% | ÷0.971 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 23.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.71% | ÷0.952 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 3.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.100 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 2.51% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .298 → .219; ISO .103 → .069; BABIP .325 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 71 PAwOBA .411 → .352 (−59)K% 21.1% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.13% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.27% | ÷1.015 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.43% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 27.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.87% | ÷0.975 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 9.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.918 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.70% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .411 → .352; ISO .180 → .161; BABIP .422 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATrenton Thunder · 188 PAwOBA .364 → .306 (−57)K% 18.6% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.62% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.31% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 22.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.02% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.944 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.51% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.36% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 108, 3B 89, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .364 → .306; ISO .190 → .147; BABIP .338 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 101 PAwOBA .301 → .250 (−51)K% 18.8% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.81% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.94% | ÷1.034 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 21.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.72% | ÷1.004 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 7.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 126, K 100, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .301 → .250; ISO .077 → .062; BABIP .342 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AATrenton Thunder · 289 PAwOBA .320 → .280 (−40)K% 12.1% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.11% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.23% | ÷0.979 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.020 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×0.998 | 17.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.36% | ÷0.936 | ×0.860 | ×0.968 | ×0.998 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.34% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | ×0.998 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.02% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .320 → .280; ISO .174 → .148; BABIP .257 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 57 PAwOBA .283 → .244 (−39)K% 10.5% → 12.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 12.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.75% | ÷1.105 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 1.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×1.033 | 20.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.033 | 5.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.247 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.39% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .283 → .244; ISO .107 → .082; BABIP .286 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Tampa Yankees · 24 PAwOBA .242 → .200 (−43)K% 12.5% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.949 | ×1.420 | — | — | 18.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.17% | ÷1.007 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 3.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 12.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.978 | 9.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 114, 2B 99, 3B 106, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .242 → .200; ISO .087 → .077; BABIP .250 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Tampa Yankees · 162 PAwOBA .379 → .316 (−63)K% 20.4% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.37% | ÷0.988 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.26% | ÷1.021 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 6.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.32% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 25.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.50% | ÷0.953 | ×0.960 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 11.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.810 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷0.862 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.68% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 104, 2B 91, 3B 106, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .379 → .316; ISO .151 → .137; BABIP .409 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).