Jeremy Rivera
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 28 | INTLIndios de May… | 134 | .222/.305/.222 | 0 | 2 | 55 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTLPuerto Rico | 33 | .345/.424/.448 | 0 | 0 | 151 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTLIndios de May… | 27 | .091/.200/.091 | 0 | 1 | -16 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 51 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 275 | 222 | 497 | 44 | 222 | 18 | 10 | 240 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 23 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 105 | 227 | 105 | 333 | 125 | 13 | 13 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 399 | 365 | 95 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 54 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 260 | 302 | 334 | 637 | 74 | 303 | 14 | 5 | 279 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 358 | 325 | 80 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 66 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 246 | 286 | 332 | 618 | 86 | 301 | 18 | 4 | 267 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 532 | 497 | 130 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 86 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 262 | 305 | 328 | 633 | 66 | 306 | 16 | 5 | 286 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 94 | 84 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 297 | 298 | 594 | 60 | 237 | 5 | 6 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 375 | 339 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 70 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 236 | 288 | 333 | 621 | 97 | 280 | 19 | 6 | 274 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 53 | 46 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 348 | 423 | 435 | 858 | 87 | 400 | 13 | 8 | 382 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 60 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 362 | 306 | 668 | 61 | 293 | 15 | 12 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 156 | 137 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 270 | 351 | 365 | 716 | 95 | 327 | 18 | 10 | 323 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 93 | 80 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 269 | 175 | 444 | 25 | 214 | 26 | 12 | 223 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 78 | 71 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 183 | 256 | 225 | 482 | 42 | 228 | 18 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 157 | 135 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 275 | 215 | 490 | 15 | 262 | 21 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 134 | 117 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 305 | 222 | 528 | 268 | 16 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 33 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 345 | 424 | 448 | 873 | 103 | 417 | 15 | 12 | 392 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 27 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 200 | 91 | 291 | 111 | 15 | 11 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 51 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 125 | 176 | 146 | 322 | 21 | 178 | 25 | 4 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 399 | 372 | 95 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 70 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 255 | 284 | 325 | 610 | 70 | 299 | 18 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 358 | 331 | 73 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 98 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 221 | 248 | 296 | 544 | 76 | 284 | 27 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 532 | 506 | 129 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 107 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 255 | 286 | 304 | 590 | 49 | 312 | 20 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 375 | 346 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 86 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 208 | 249 | 286 | 535 | 78 | 248 | 23 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 156 | 142 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 254 | 312 | 317 | 629 | 63 | 318 | 21 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 93 | 84 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 131 | 215 | 155 | 370 | 24 | 197 | 31 | 8 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 51 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 125 | 176 | 146 | 322 | 21 | 171 | 25 | 4 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 51 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 275 | 222 | 497 | 44 | 222 | 18 | 10 | 240 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL MLE | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 23 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 105 | 227 | 105 | 333 | 125 | 13 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL RAW | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 23 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 105 | 227 | 105 | 333 | 125 | 13 | 13 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 399 | 372 | 95 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 70 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 255 | 284 | 325 | 610 | 70 | 311 | 18 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 399 | 365 | 95 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 54 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 260 | 302 | 334 | 637 | 74 | 303 | 14 | 5 | 279 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 358 | 331 | 73 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 98 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 221 | 248 | 296 | 544 | 76 | 305 | 27 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 358 | 325 | 80 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 66 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 246 | 286 | 332 | 618 | 86 | 301 | 18 | 4 | 267 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 626 | 593 | 151 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 126 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 255 | 286 | 305 | 591 | 51 | 315 | 20 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 626 | 581 | 150 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 91 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 258 | 304 | 324 | 627 | 65 | 295 | 15 | 6 | 283 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 394 | 82 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 98 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 208 | 252 | 287 | 539 | 79 | 260 | 23 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 428 | 385 | 96 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 77 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 249 | 305 | 345 | 650 | 96 | 296 | 18 | 6 | 287 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL MLE | Puerto Rico | — | 60 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 362 | 306 | 668 | 61 | 293 | 15 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL RAW | Puerto Rico | — | 60 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 362 | 306 | 668 | 61 | 293 | 15 | 12 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 327 | 298 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 81 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 248 | 519 | 44 | 278 | 25 | 7 | 241 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 327 | 288 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 66 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 215 | 305 | 278 | 582 | 62 | 273 | 20 | 10 | 272 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL MLE | Puerto Rico | — | 157 | 135 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 275 | 215 | 490 | 15 | 262 | 21 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL RAW | Puerto Rico | — | 157 | 135 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 275 | 215 | 490 | 15 | 262 | 21 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL MLE | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 134 | 117 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 305 | 222 | 528 | 268 | 16 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL RAW | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 134 | 117 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 305 | 222 | 528 | 268 | 16 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL MLE | Puerto Rico | — | 33 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 345 | 424 | 448 | 873 | 103 | 417 | 15 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL RAW | Puerto Rico | — | 33 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 345 | 424 | 448 | 873 | 103 | 417 | 15 | 12 | 392 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL MLE | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 27 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 200 | 91 | 291 | 111 | 15 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL RAW | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 27 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 200 | 91 | 291 | 111 | 15 | 11 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 51 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 125 | 176 | 146 | 322 | 21 | 178 | 25 | 4 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 399 | 381 | 95 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 70 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 249 | 284 | 318 | 602 | 68 | 299 | 18 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 358 | 343 | 73 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 98 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 213 | 248 | 286 | 534 | 73 | 284 | 27 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 626 | 595 | 151 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 126 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 254 | 286 | 304 | 590 | 50 | 312 | 20 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 402 | 82 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 98 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 204 | 252 | 281 | 533 | 77 | 248 | 23 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 327 | 297 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 81 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 249 | 520 | 44 | 273 | 25 | 7 | 241 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2623 | 2407 | 547 | 79 | 8 | 13 | 129 | 561 | 24 | 53 | 24 | 227 | 273 | 283 | 556 | 56 | 289 | 21 | 5 | 203 | 23 | -239 | +1 | +0 | +28 | +57 | -15.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 136 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 139 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 228 | 274 | 284 | 558 | 55 | 291 | 21 | 5 | 203 | 23 | -59 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -3.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 156 PAwOBA .315 → .281 (−34)K% 17.9% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.021 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.62% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.69% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×1.018 | 25.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×1.018 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.035 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.318 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.99% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 105, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .315 → .281; ISO .095 → .070; BABIP .327 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 93 PAwOBA .219 → .175 (−43)K% 25.8% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.83% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 7.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷1.047 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 16.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.064 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 3.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 109, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 105, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .219 → .175; ISO .025 → .021; BABIP .214 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 375 PAwOBA .267 → .227 (−40)K% 18.7% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.67% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.87% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.68% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×1.012 | 20.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.09% | ÷1.158 | ×0.860 | ×0.956 | ×1.012 | 2.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.956 | ×1.012 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.23% | ÷0.953 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.85% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .267 → .227; ISO .097 → .077; BABIP .280 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 532 PAwOBA .279 → .260 (−19)K% 16.2% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.17% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.28% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 27.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.89% | ÷1.052 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 3.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.24% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.166 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.84% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .279 → .260; ISO .066 → .052; BABIP .306 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Salem Red Sox · 358 PAwOBA .261 → .227 (−33)K% 18.4% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.44% | ÷0.958 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.91% | ÷1.043 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 2.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.042 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 20.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.49% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 7.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.77% | ÷0.956 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 0.74% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .261 → .227; ISO .086 → .076; BABIP .301 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AGreenville Drive · 399 PAwOBA .274 → .260 (−14)K% 13.5% → 17.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.53% | ÷1.034 | ×1.340 | — | — | 17.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.044 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 3.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.15% | ÷0.978 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 23.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.11% | ÷0.908 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 5.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.29% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 96, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 107, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .274 → .260; ISO .074 → .070; BABIP .303 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGCL Red Sox · 51 PAwOBA .225 → .164 (−61)K% 17.6% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 13.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .225 → .164; ISO .044 → .031; BABIP .222 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .