Jamie Ritchie
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 28 | AAAARI | 336 | .317/.419/.430 | 4 | 0 | 97 | — | .266/.347/.350 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAAPIT | 120 | .242/.375/.283 | 0 | 0 | 55 | — | .206/.292/.243 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAATOR | 214 | .233/.366/.278 | 1 | 2 | 56 | — | .203/.300/.241 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 164 | 133 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 308 | 425 | 444 | 869 | 135 | 377 | 16 | 15 | 383 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 334 | 259 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 70 | 54 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 266 | 429 | 367 | 796 | 100 | 322 | 16 | 21 | 372 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 414 | 344 | 95 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 58 | 83 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 391 | 395 | 787 | 119 | 344 | 20 | 14 | 356 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 293 | 242 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 44 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 256 | 384 | 335 | 718 | 79 | 301 | 15 | 15 | 336 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 97 | 81 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 321 | 433 | 519 | 952 | 198 | 371 | 16 | 14 | 422 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 185 | 161 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 280 | 370 | 348 | 717 | 68 | 372 | 22 | 9 | 330 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 301 | 252 | 68 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 56 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 270 | 380 | 409 | 789 | 139 | 323 | 19 | 14 | 354 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 336 | 284 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 317 | 419 | 430 | 849 | 113 | 374 | 15 | 13 | 383 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 120 | 99 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 375 | 283 | 658 | 40 | 304 | 17 | 18 | 316 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 214 | 176 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 233 | 366 | 278 | 645 | 45 | 292 | 18 | 17 | 308 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 164 | 141 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 270 | 356 | 376 | 732 | 106 | 353 | 24 | 10 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 334 | 282 | 65 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 76 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 230 | 348 | 305 | 653 | 74 | 305 | 23 | 14 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 414 | 363 | 84 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 116 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 318 | 314 | 632 | 83 | 315 | 28 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 293 | 257 | 61 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 55 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 237 | 329 | 300 | 628 | 62 | 288 | 19 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 97 | 85 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 282 | 371 | 459 | 830 | 176 | 330 | 22 | 10 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 185 | 167 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 234 | 304 | 287 | 592 | 54 | 325 | 27 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 301 | 264 | 63 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 71 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 323 | 348 | 672 | 110 | 297 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 336 | 297 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 266 | 347 | 350 | 697 | 84 | 322 | 19 | 9 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 120 | 107 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 292 | 243 | 535 | 37 | 268 | 20 | 11 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 214 | 187 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 300 | 241 | 541 | 37 | 266 | 22 | 12 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 423 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 64 | 116 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 246 | 353 | 333 | 686 | 87 | 328 | 23 | 13 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 498 | 392 | 110 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 95 | 81 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 281 | 428 | 393 | 821 | 112 | 341 | 16 | 19 | 375 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 414 | 363 | 84 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 116 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 318 | 314 | 632 | 83 | 324 | 28 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 414 | 344 | 95 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 58 | 83 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 391 | 395 | 787 | 119 | 344 | 20 | 14 | 356 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 293 | 257 | 61 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 55 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 237 | 329 | 300 | 628 | 62 | 294 | 19 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 293 | 242 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 44 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 256 | 384 | 335 | 718 | 79 | 301 | 15 | 15 | 336 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 252 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 71 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 324 | 341 | 665 | 95 | 330 | 25 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 282 | 242 | 71 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 57 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 293 | 391 | 405 | 796 | 112 | 372 | 20 | 11 | 362 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 301 | 264 | 63 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 71 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 323 | 348 | 672 | 110 | 306 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 301 | 252 | 68 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 56 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 270 | 380 | 409 | 789 | 139 | 323 | 19 | 14 | 354 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 336 | 297 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 266 | 347 | 350 | 697 | 84 | 326 | 19 | 9 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 336 | 284 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 317 | 419 | 430 | 849 | 113 | 374 | 15 | 13 | 383 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 120 | 107 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 292 | 243 | 535 | 37 | 265 | 20 | 11 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 120 | 99 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 375 | 283 | 658 | 40 | 304 | 17 | 18 | 316 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 214 | 187 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 300 | 241 | 541 | 37 | 266 | 22 | 12 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 214 | 176 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 233 | 366 | 278 | 645 | 45 | 292 | 18 | 17 | 308 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 425 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 64 | 116 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 245 | 353 | 332 | 685 | 87 | 321 | 23 | 13 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 414 | 365 | 84 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 116 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 318 | 312 | 630 | 82 | 315 | 28 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 293 | 256 | 61 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 55 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 238 | 329 | 301 | 630 | 62 | 288 | 19 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 251 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 71 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 324 | 343 | 666 | 96 | 327 | 25 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 301 | 265 | 63 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 71 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 323 | 347 | 670 | 109 | 297 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 336 | 296 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 267 | 347 | 351 | 699 | 84 | 322 | 19 | 9 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 120 | 106 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 292 | 245 | 537 | 38 | 268 | 20 | 11 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 214 | 186 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 300 | 242 | 542 | 38 | 266 | 22 | 12 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2458 | 2150 | 513 | 90 | 8 | 22 | 251 | 564 | 38 | 23 | 10 | 239 | 329 | 319 | 647 | 80 | 311 | 23 | 10 | 291 | 83 | -49 | +1 | +0 | +44 | +53 | 5.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 569 | 136 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 149 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 239 | 329 | 320 | 649 | 81 | 312 | 23 | 10 | 291 | 83 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | 1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 214 PAwOBA .303 → .251 (−52)K% 18.2% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.22% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.82% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 11.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.28% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×1.038 | ×0.972 | 24.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.19% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.038 | ×0.972 | 1.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.038 | ×0.972 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.916 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.54% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .303 → .251; ISO .045 → .037; BABIP .292 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 120 PAwOBA .309 → .250 (−59)K% 16.7% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.50% | ÷1.058 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 11.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.32% | ÷1.087 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 22.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.06% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.942 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .309 → .250; ISO .040 → .037; BABIP .304 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAReno Aces · 336 PAwOBA .375 → .312 (−64)K% 15.5% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.48% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.88% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.014 | ×0.992 | 25.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.76% | ÷1.096 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×0.992 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.113 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×0.992 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.958 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.25% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 123, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .375 → .312; ISO .113 → .087; BABIP .374 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAARound Rock Express · 301 PAwOBA .350 → .300 (−50)K% 18.6% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.60% | ÷1.022 | ×1.290 | — | — | 23.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.62% | ÷1.030 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.94% | ÷0.966 | ×0.900 | ×1.015 | ×1.018 | 21.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷0.995 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.018 | 8.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.126 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.55% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 2.14% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 125, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .350 → .300; ISO .139 → .118; BABIP .323 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 185 PAwOBA .324 → .266 (−58)K% 22.2% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.16% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.19% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.24% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 26.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.075 | ×0.840 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 105, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .324 → .266; ISO .068 → .055; BABIP .372 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 97 PAwOBA .411 → .343 (−68)K% 16.5% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.49% | ÷0.982 | ×1.290 | — | — | 21.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.43% | ÷1.025 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 10.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.06% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷0.962 | ×0.900 | ×0.960 | ×1.033 | 22.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.77% | ÷0.974 | ×0.810 | ×0.960 | ×1.033 | 8.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.960 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.951 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 3.91% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .411 → .343; ISO .198 → .163; BABIP .371 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 293 PAwOBA .329 → .287 (−43)K% 15.0% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.02% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.36% | ÷1.056 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 10.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.25% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 24.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.04% | ÷0.964 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.035 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .329 → .287; ISO .079 → .071; BABIP .301 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 414 PAwOBA .349 → .282 (−67)K% 20.0% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.05% | ÷0.962 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.01% | ÷1.046 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.05% | ÷0.982 | ×0.910 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 25.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.66% | ÷1.070 | ×0.820 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 6.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷1.252 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 1.97% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 96, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .349 → .282; ISO .119 → .088; BABIP .344 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).