Riley Mahan
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | AAMIA | 304 | .204/.272/.324 | 6 | 1 | 23 | — | .159/.209/.244 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA/A+/ASF | 293 | .261/.351/.482 | 12 | 6 | 63 | — | .190/.257/.331 |
| 2023 | 27 | AASF | 177 | .193/.230/.398 | 8 | 2 | 32 | — | .154/.178/.308 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 27 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 259 | 407 | 667 | 148 | 316 | 26 | 0 | 292 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 462 | 424 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 127 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 250 | 301 | 340 | 641 | 90 | 346 | 27 | 5 | 286 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 222 | 207 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 62 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 261 | 372 | 633 | 150 | 284 | 28 | 4 | 276 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 249 | 215 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 72 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 279 | 366 | 400 | 766 | 121 | 396 | 29 | 10 | 343 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 304 | 275 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 105 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 204 | 272 | 324 | 596 | 120 | 299 | 35 | 8 | 268 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 78 | 64 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 266 | 382 | 500 | 882 | 234 | 467 | 41 | 12 | 380 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 34 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 344 | 655 | 999 | 379 | 400 | 41 | 9 | 398 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 181 | 160 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 256 | 339 | 444 | 783 | 188 | 340 | 30 | 9 | 347 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 177 | 166 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 230 | 398 | 627 | 205 | 229 | 32 | 5 | 269 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 27 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 222 | 370 | 593 | 148 | 280 | 33 | 0 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 462 | 430 | 85 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 179 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 198 | 242 | 277 | 519 | 79 | 313 | 39 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 222 | 210 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 220 | 319 | 539 | 129 | 250 | 34 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 249 | 223 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 102 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 285 | 323 | 607 | 112 | 336 | 41 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 304 | 283 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 132 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 159 | 209 | 244 | 453 | 85 | 266 | 43 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 78 | 67 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 209 | 303 | 373 | 676 | 164 | 424 | 51 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 34 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 433 | 683 | 233 | 324 | 53 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 181 | 167 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 78 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 180 | 239 | 293 | 532 | 114 | 302 | 43 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 177 | 169 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 154 | 178 | 308 | 486 | 154 | 207 | 39 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 27 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 222 | 370 | 593 | 148 | 294 | 33 | 0 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 27 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 259 | 407 | 667 | 148 | 316 | 26 | 0 | 292 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 462 | 430 | 85 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 179 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 198 | 242 | 277 | 519 | 79 | 325 | 39 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 462 | 424 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 127 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 250 | 301 | 340 | 641 | 90 | 346 | 27 | 5 | 286 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 433 | 84 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 177 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 248 | 307 | 555 | 113 | 297 | 38 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 471 | 422 | 106 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 134 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 251 | 317 | 386 | 703 | 135 | 339 | 28 | 7 | 312 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 304 | 283 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 132 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 159 | 209 | 244 | 453 | 85 | 273 | 43 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 304 | 275 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 105 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 204 | 272 | 324 | 596 | 120 | 299 | 35 | 8 | 268 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 293 | 263 | 51 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 136 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 194 | 264 | 346 | 610 | 152 | 350 | 46 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 293 | 253 | 66 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 100 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 261 | 351 | 482 | 833 | 221 | 372 | 34 | 10 | 361 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 177 | 169 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 154 | 178 | 308 | 486 | 154 | 206 | 39 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 177 | 166 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 230 | 398 | 627 | 205 | 229 | 32 | 5 | 269 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 27 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 222 | 370 | 593 | 148 | 280 | 33 | 0 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 462 | 434 | 85 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 179 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 196 | 242 | 274 | 516 | 78 | 313 | 39 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 437 | 84 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 177 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 248 | 304 | 552 | 112 | 295 | 38 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 304 | 283 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 132 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 159 | 209 | 244 | 453 | 85 | 266 | 43 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 293 | 266 | 51 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 136 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 192 | 264 | 342 | 606 | 150 | 337 | 46 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 177 | 170 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 153 | 178 | 306 | 484 | 153 | 207 | 39 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1734 | 1605 | 297 | 65 | 8 | 32 | 80 | 702 | 24 | 19 | 8 | 185 | 235 | 295 | 530 | 110 | 298 | 40 | 5 | 231 | 42 | -119 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +38 | -7.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 111 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 263 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 184 | 234 | 294 | 528 | 110 | 297 | 40 | 5 | 231 | 42 | -45 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 177 PAwOBA .266 → .215 (−51)K% 31.6% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.64% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.52% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 3.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷0.978 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 13.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.003 | ×0.860 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.27% | ÷0.906 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 6.06% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .266 → .215; ISO .205 → .161; BABIP .229 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASan Jose Giants · 181 PAwOBA .339 → .239 (−101)K% 29.8% → 43.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.83% | ÷0.943 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.39% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.950 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.950 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.53% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.950 | 22.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.60% | ÷0.957 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×0.950 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.033 | ×0.950 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.60% | ÷1.063 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.950 | 4.72% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 89, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.0 → −5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .339 → .239; ISO .188 → .122; BABIP .340 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 78 PAwOBA .375 → .299 (−76)K% 41.0% → 50.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.03% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 50.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.018 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 3.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.12% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.978 | 26.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.011 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 10.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.978 | 3.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 7.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .375 → .299; ISO .234 → .186; BABIP .467 → .424. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Eugene Emeralds · 34 PAwOBA .411 → .295 (−116)K% 41.2% → 54.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.18% | ÷1.029 | ×1.350 | — | — | 54.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷0.978 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.989 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.958 | 11.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.958 | 16.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.930 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.958 | 5.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.120 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.958 | 9.47% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 86, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .411 → .295; ISO .379 → .263; BABIP .400 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 304 PAwOBA .263 → .202 (−60)K% 34.5% → 43.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.54% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.24% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 19.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.65% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 6.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.011 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.69% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .263 → .202; ISO .120 → .087; BABIP .299 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 249 PAwOBA .334 → .260 (−75)K% 28.9% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.92% | ÷1.007 | ×1.420 | — | — | 40.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.64% | ÷0.998 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 7.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.47% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 26.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷0.931 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.120 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.50% | ÷0.803 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 3.79% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 61, 1B 109, 2B 86, 3B 124, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .334 → .260; ISO .121 → .107; BABIP .396 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 222 PAwOBA .269 → .225 (−44)K% 27.9% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.93% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.15% | ÷1.015 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 2.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.31% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 16.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷0.975 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 6.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.14% | ÷0.918 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.65% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .269 → .225; ISO .150 → .128; BABIP .284 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 462 PAwOBA .280 → .225 (−55)K% 27.5% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.49% | ÷1.009 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.98% | ÷0.967 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 3.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 22.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.74% | ÷0.903 | ×0.960 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 7.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.850 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .280 → .225; ISO .090 → .076; BABIP .346 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).