Braxton Lee
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+2 orgs | 357 | .233/.318/.294 | 1 | 7 | 49 | — | .212/.273/.274 | |
| 2018 | 24 | MLBMIA | 18 | .176/.222/.176 | 0 | 0 | 16 | -0.5 | ||
| 2019 | 25 | AAA/AANYM | 438 | .271/.343/.357 | 3 | 9 | 63 | — | .238/.291/.313 | |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA/AACIN | 294 | .224/.299/.293 | 0 | 3 | 41 | — | .202/.254/.261 | |
| 2022 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 422 | 374 | 105 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 67 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 281 | 349 | 305 | 653 | 24 | 340 | 16 | 9 | 298 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 431 | 387 | 81 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 58 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 209 | 270 | 256 | 526 | 47 | 245 | 13 | 7 | 238 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 561 | 476 | 147 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 65 | 104 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 309 | 397 | 384 | 782 | 76 | 386 | 19 | 12 | 349 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 85 | 75 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 347 | 402 | 400 | 802 | 53 | 419 | 16 | 5 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 176 | 399 | 333 | 44 | 6 | 190 | 16 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +0 | -0.5 | |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | New Orleans Baby Cakes | — | 201 | 179 | 42 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 235 | 308 | 291 | 599 | 56 | 294 | 18 | 9 | 273 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 127 | 110 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 317 | 300 | 617 | 82 | 253 | 15 | 13 | 286 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 29 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 292 | 393 | 292 | 685 | 333 | 10 | 10 | 316 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 133 | 119 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 261 | 323 | 345 | 668 | 84 | 337 | 22 | 8 | 298 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 305 | 265 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 72 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 275 | 351 | 362 | 714 | 87 | 370 | 24 | 10 | 316 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 171 | 150 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 320 | 307 | 626 | 73 | 315 | 23 | 11 | 287 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 123 | 113 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 270 | 274 | 545 | 62 | 286 | 24 | 6 | 249 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 176 | 399 | 333 | 44 | 6 | 190 | 14 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +0 | -0.5 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 422 | 383 | 101 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 97 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 264 | 317 | 287 | 604 | 23 | 340 | 23 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 431 | 396 | 83 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 72 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 210 | 253 | 255 | 508 | 45 | 245 | 17 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 561 | 502 | 143 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 130 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 285 | 342 | 351 | 693 | 66 | 362 | 23 | 7 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 176 | 399 | 333 | 44 | 6 | 192 | 16 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +0 | -0.5 | |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Baby Cakes | — | 201 | 184 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 212 | 268 | 266 | 534 | 54 | 269 | 22 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 127 | 116 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 270 | 293 | 563 | 86 | 236 | 17 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 29 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 321 | 240 | 561 | 295 | 14 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 133 | 122 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 262 | 279 | 540 | 66 | 282 | 26 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 305 | 274 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 81 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 248 | 304 | 328 | 633 | 80 | 328 | 27 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 171 | 157 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 210 | 266 | 274 | 540 | 64 | 304 | 30 | 7 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 123 | 115 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 238 | 243 | 481 | 52 | 259 | 28 | 4 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 422 | 383 | 101 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 97 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 264 | 317 | 287 | 604 | 23 | 351 | 23 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 422 | 374 | 105 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 67 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 281 | 349 | 305 | 653 | 24 | 340 | 16 | 9 | 298 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 431 | 396 | 83 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 72 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 210 | 253 | 255 | 508 | 45 | 255 | 17 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 431 | 387 | 81 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 58 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 209 | 270 | 256 | 526 | 47 | 245 | 13 | 7 | 238 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 646 | 575 | 164 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 149 | 8 | 28 | 15 | 285 | 346 | 348 | 693 | 63 | 378 | 23 | 7 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 646 | 551 | 173 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 69 | 118 | 8 | 28 | 15 | 314 | 398 | 387 | 785 | 73 | 391 | 18 | 11 | 349 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 375 | 342 | 71 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 80 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 208 | 268 | 263 | 531 | 56 | 266 | 21 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 375 | 330 | 76 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 67 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 230 | 314 | 288 | 601 | 58 | 284 | 18 | 10 | 277 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 395 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 115 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 235 | 291 | 304 | 595 | 68 | 326 | 26 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 438 | 384 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 101 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 271 | 343 | 357 | 699 | 86 | 359 | 23 | 9 | 311 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 294 | 272 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 85 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 202 | 254 | 261 | 515 | 59 | 293 | 29 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 294 | 263 | 59 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 69 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 224 | 299 | 293 | 592 | 68 | 303 | 23 | 9 | 271 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 422 | 389 | 101 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 97 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 260 | 317 | 283 | 600 | 23 | 340 | 23 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 431 | 405 | 83 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 72 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 205 | 253 | 249 | 502 | 44 | 245 | 17 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 646 | 588 | 164 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 149 | 8 | 28 | 15 | 279 | 346 | 340 | 686 | 61 | 362 | 23 | 7 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 375 | 344 | 71 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 80 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 206 | 268 | 262 | 529 | 55 | 263 | 21 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 404 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 115 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 230 | 291 | 297 | 588 | 67 | 314 | 26 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 294 | 273 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 85 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 201 | 254 | 260 | 514 | 59 | 285 | 29 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 176 | 399 | 333 | 44 | 6 | 190 | 62 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +0 | -0.5 | ||
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 614 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 289 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 176 | 397 | 332 | 44 | 6 | 190 | 62 | -66 | +0 | +16 | -145 | +14 | -18.5 | ||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2606 | 2363 | 567 | 82 | 14 | 5 | 166 | 598 | 18 | 83 | 54 | 240 | 295 | 293 | 588 | 53 | 317 | 23 | 6 | 259 | 62 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +0 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 140 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 149 | 4 | 21 | 13 | 238 | 291 | 287 | 578 | 49 | 314 | 23 | 6 | 259 | 62 | -66 | +0 | +16 | -145 | +14 | -18.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAALouisville Bats · 171 PAwOBA .281 → .243 (−39)K% 23.4% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.39% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.099 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.64% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×1.048 | ×0.992 | 22.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.36% | ÷0.945 | ×0.830 | ×1.048 | ×0.992 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.82% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.048 | ×0.992 | 1.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.088 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .281 → .243; ISO .073 → .070; BABIP .315 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 123 PAwOBA .243 → .207 (−36)K% 23.6% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.58% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.69% | ÷0.936 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.968 | 4.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 20.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.95% | ÷1.183 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 4.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.912 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 102, 2B 137, 3B 82, K 108, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .243 → .207; ISO .062 → .050; BABIP .286 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 305 PAwOBA .308 → .271 (−37)K% 23.6% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.61% | ÷1.083 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.51% | ÷0.942 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.33% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.02% | ÷1.026 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 25.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷0.945 | ×0.860 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.012 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.79% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 117, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .308 → .271; ISO .087 → .078; BABIP .370 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAASyracuse Mets · 133 PAwOBA .290 → .239 (−51)K% 21.8% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.80% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.52% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.56% | ÷1.042 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 22.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.78% | ÷1.060 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.11% | ÷0.960 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.99% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 108, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 104, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .290 → .239; ISO .084 → .067; BABIP .337 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 201 PAwOBA .268 → .234 (−35)K% 18.4% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.41% | ÷1.055 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.45% | ÷0.990 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 7.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.94% | ÷1.054 | ×0.900 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 21.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.23% | ÷0.906 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.031 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 81, 3B 106, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .268 → .234; ISO .056 → .051; BABIP .294 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 127 PAwOBA .282 → .243 (−39)K% 15.0% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.96% | ÷1.052 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.60% | ÷1.122 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.68% | ÷1.050 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×0.998 | 16.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷0.875 | ×0.910 | ×1.021 | ×0.998 | 6.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.021 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.041 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.84% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 110, 2B 75, 3B 80, K 110, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .282 → .243; ISO .082 → .082; BABIP .253 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 29 PAwOBA .309 → .270 (−39)K% 10.3% → 14.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.009 | ×1.420 | — | — | 14.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷0.967 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 3.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 29.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.850 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .270; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 561 PAwOBA .339 → .305 (−34)K% 18.5% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.54% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.52% | ÷1.042 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.26% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×1.035 | ×1.012 | 30.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.65% | ÷0.985 | ×0.910 | ×1.035 | ×1.012 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.070 | ×0.880 | ×1.035 | ×1.012 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.185 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.55% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 114, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .339 → .305; ISO .076 → .069; BABIP .386 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).