Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 3.43 | 5.24 | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 3.43 | 4.13 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 74 | 322 | 84 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 14.2% | 0.7% | 4.26 | 2.53 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 74 | 322 | 84 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 26.1% | 6.8% | 19.3% | 0.6% | 4.26 | 2.07 | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 70 | 0 | 46 | 198 | 42 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 0.7 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 4.53 | 3.39 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 70 | 0 | 46 | 198 | 42 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 0.7 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 14.1% | 2.0% | 4.53 | 3.32 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 0 | 69 | 280 | 69 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.4% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 2.3% | 2.99 | 3.16 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 0 | 69 | 280 | 69 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.6% | 6.1% | 18.6% | 2.1% | 2.99 | 2.97 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 23 | 0 | 18 | 79 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 19.0% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 4.01 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 23 | 0 | 18 | 79 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 19.0% | 3.8% | 4.50 | 3.88 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 78 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 56 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 14.9% | 3.8% | 3.62 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 78 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 56 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 3.62 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 55 | 0 | 48 | 199 | 25 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 12.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 0.5% | 3.56 | 3.16 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 55 | 0 | 48 | 199 | 25 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 12.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 0.5% | 3.56 | 3.14 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 46 | 214 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 12.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 6.26 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 46 | 214 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 6.26 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 62 | 0 | 67 | 291 | 31 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 3.36 | 3.29 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 62 | 0 | 67 | 291 | 31 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 3.36 | 3.32 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | New York Yankees | 70 | 0 | 67 | 269 | 37 | 13 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.8% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.09 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | New York Yankees | 70 | 0 | 67 | 269 | 37 | 13 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.8% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 3.09 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | New York Yankees | 43 | 0 | 36 | 148 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 11.5% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.50 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 0 | 19 | 81 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 36 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 55 | 229 | 27 | 10 | 9 | — | — | 11.6% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 4.36 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 36 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 55 | 233 | 27 | 10 | 9 | — | — | 11.4% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.36 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | NYY | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.29 | 5.56 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | NYY | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.29 | 5.56 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 599 | 0 | 534 | 2262 | 342 | 138 | 61 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.1% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.08 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 224 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 128 | 52 | 23 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.1% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 608 | 0 | 594 | 2521 | 437 | 165 | 63 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 3.84 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 205 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 147 | 56 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tim Hill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 12.0% | 5.6% | 2.4% | — | 5.35 | 10.4% | 4.2% | 90 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.22 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .308 | 5.02 | 17.8% | 2.7% | 19 | +0.80 | 4.22 | 159 | 70 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.97 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.65 | 22.4% | 17.7% | 38 | +0.68 | 2.35 | 306 | 67 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.56 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 117 | 63 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | .290 | 3.24 | 25.5% | 17.5% | 48 | -1.59 | 3.24 | 156 | 63 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.03 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | .260 | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 56 | -0.04 | 3.68 | 405 | 56 |
| Brandon Mann L 2024 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 52 |
| Zach Duke L 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.66 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 215 | 45 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.09 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 166 | 44 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.47 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 109 | 38 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 34 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 12.4% | 6.0% | 1.3% | .328 | 3.35 | 14.8% | 10.4% | 69 | -0.19 | 3.03 | 119 | 34 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 34 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 34 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 33 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 32 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 32 |
| Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.83 | 13.1% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.23 | 173 | 32 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 32 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 32 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .295 | 5.60 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.74 | 2.61 | 339 | 32 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 11.0% | 6.0% | 1.22 | 4.75 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Josh Fleming ('24) | 5 | 51 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 1.17 | 4.77 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |