Cade Gotta
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 30 | INTLAguilas Cibae… | 168 | .195/.352/.263 | 0 | 9 | 85 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | INTLCardenales de… | 44 | .263/.364/.368 | 0 | 3 | 113 | — |
| 2025 | 33 | INTLAguilas de Me… | 224 | .300/.398/.379 | 1 | 16 | 124 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 22 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 195 | 159 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 39 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 245 | 375 | 390 | 765 | 145 | 308 | 20 | 15 | 344 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 61 | 59 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 279 | 458 | 736 | 203 | 295 | 21 | 3 | 321 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 319 | 291 | 76 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 46 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 261 | 317 | 405 | 723 | 144 | 292 | 14 | 7 | 318 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 189 | 173 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 306 | 362 | 451 | 813 | 145 | 368 | 19 | 7 | 360 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 138 | 124 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 274 | 338 | 371 | 709 | 97 | 367 | 25 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 94 | 90 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 267 | 290 | 356 | 646 | 89 | 324 | 18 | 2 | 285 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 390 | 341 | 96 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 65 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 282 | 367 | 387 | 754 | 106 | 332 | 17 | 12 | 340 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 253 | 212 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 39 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 335 | 440 | 434 | 874 | 99 | 405 | 15 | 15 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 165 | 142 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 31 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 254 | 346 | 373 | 719 | 120 | 315 | 19 | 12 | 321 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 226 | 198 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 30 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 268 | 353 | 414 | 767 | 146 | 295 | 13 | 11 | 342 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Acereros del Norte | — | 220 | 182 | 57 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 42 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 313 | 419 | 467 | 886 | 154 | 379 | 19 | 15 | 388 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | INTL | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 167 | 140 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 343 | 439 | 486 | 925 | 143 | 388 | 11 | 13 | 405 | 160 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 28 | INTL | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 150 | 117 | 38 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 325 | 463 | 462 | 924 | 137 | 365 | 11 | 17 | 410 | 163 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | INTL | Venezuela | — | 246 | 199 | 51 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 47 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 256 | 391 | 382 | 773 | 126 | 316 | 19 | 15 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 168 | 133 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 41 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 195 | 352 | 263 | 615 | 68 | 283 | 24 | 19 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 32 | INTL | Cardenales de Lara | — | 44 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 263 | 364 | 368 | 732 | 105 | 333 | 18 | 11 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 33 | INTL | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 224 | 190 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 26 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 300 | 398 | 379 | 777 | 79 | 339 | 12 | 13 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 195 | 172 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 56 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 163 | 250 | 244 | 494 | 81 | 226 | 29 | 9 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 61 | 60 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 197 | 300 | 497 | 117 | 238 | 30 | 2 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 319 | 298 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 57 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 232 | 273 | 352 | 625 | 121 | 268 | 18 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 189 | 178 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 236 | 277 | 331 | 608 | 96 | 320 | 28 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 94 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 231 | 247 | 308 | 555 | 77 | 290 | 21 | 1 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 390 | 357 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 80 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 246 | 305 | 336 | 641 | 90 | 300 | 21 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 165 | 150 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 240 | 296 | 360 | 656 | 120 | 297 | 22 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 220 | 192 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 51 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 255 | 335 | 370 | 705 | 115 | 309 | 23 | 10 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 195 | 172 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 56 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 163 | 250 | 244 | 494 | 81 | 231 | 29 | 9 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK RAW | GCL Rays | — | 195 | 159 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 39 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 245 | 375 | 390 | 765 | 145 | 308 | 20 | 15 | 344 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 61 | 60 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 197 | 300 | 497 | 117 | 244 | 30 | 2 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 61 | 59 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 279 | 458 | 736 | 203 | 295 | 21 | 3 | 321 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 646 | 604 | 141 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 140 | 4 | 38 | 11 | 233 | 275 | 341 | 616 | 108 | 289 | 22 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 646 | 588 | 163 | 33 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 117 | 4 | 38 | 11 | 277 | 335 | 412 | 746 | 134 | 328 | 18 | 7 | 330 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 737 | 682 | 166 | 32 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 152 | 3 | 61 | 21 | 243 | 295 | 328 | 624 | 85 | 302 | 21 | 6 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 737 | 643 | 191 | 37 | 5 | 6 | 86 | 121 | 3 | 61 | 21 | 297 | 383 | 398 | 781 | 101 | 355 | 16 | 12 | 352 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 356 | 84 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 85 | 3 | 33 | 7 | 236 | 295 | 351 | 646 | 115 | 301 | 22 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 391 | 340 | 89 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 61 | 3 | 33 | 7 | 262 | 350 | 397 | 747 | 135 | 303 | 16 | 11 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 337 | 85 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 90 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 252 | 335 | 365 | 700 | 113 | 324 | 23 | 10 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 387 | 322 | 105 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 55 | 61 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 326 | 427 | 475 | 903 | 149 | 383 | 16 | 14 | 395 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 28 | INTL MLE | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 150 | 117 | 38 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 325 | 463 | 462 | 924 | 137 | 365 | 11 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 28 | INTL RAW | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 150 | 117 | 38 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 325 | 463 | 462 | 924 | 137 | 365 | 11 | 17 | 410 | 163 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | INTL MLE | Venezuela | — | 246 | 199 | 51 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 47 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 256 | 391 | 382 | 773 | 126 | 316 | 19 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | INTL RAW | Venezuela | — | 246 | 199 | 51 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 47 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 256 | 391 | 382 | 773 | 126 | 316 | 19 | 15 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | INTL MLE | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 168 | 133 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 41 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 195 | 352 | 263 | 615 | 68 | 283 | 24 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | INTL RAW | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 168 | 133 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 41 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 195 | 352 | 263 | 615 | 68 | 283 | 24 | 19 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 32 | INTL MLE | Cardenales de Lara | — | 44 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 263 | 364 | 368 | 732 | 105 | 333 | 18 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 32 | INTL RAW | Cardenales de Lara | — | 44 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 263 | 364 | 368 | 732 | 105 | 333 | 18 | 11 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 33 | INTL MLE | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 224 | 190 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 26 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 300 | 398 | 379 | 777 | 79 | 339 | 12 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 33 | INTL RAW | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 224 | 190 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 26 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 300 | 398 | 379 | 777 | 79 | 339 | 12 | 13 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 195 | 173 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 56 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 162 | 250 | 243 | 493 | 81 | 226 | 29 | 9 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 61 | 60 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 197 | 300 | 497 | 117 | 238 | 30 | 2 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 646 | 606 | 141 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 140 | 4 | 38 | 11 | 233 | 275 | 340 | 615 | 107 | 287 | 22 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 737 | 681 | 166 | 32 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 152 | 3 | 61 | 21 | 244 | 295 | 329 | 624 | 85 | 298 | 21 | 6 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 358 | 84 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 85 | 3 | 33 | 7 | 235 | 295 | 349 | 644 | 115 | 297 | 22 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 342 | 85 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 90 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 249 | 335 | 360 | 695 | 111 | 309 | 23 | 10 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3249 | 2888 | 697 | 155 | 28 | 27 | 293 | 679 | 28 | 217 | 77 | 241 | 317 | 342 | 660 | 101 | 303 | 21 | 9 | 205 | 25 | -292 | +13 | +0 | -19 | +70 | -23.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 139 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 59 | 136 | 6 | 43 | 15 | 240 | 318 | 341 | 659 | 100 | 302 | 21 | 9 | 205 | 25 | -58 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -4.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAAcereros del Norte · 220 PAwOBA .384 → .308 (−76)K% 19.1% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.09% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.55% | ÷0.960 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 10.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.14% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 22.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.922 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.95% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 110, 3B 84, K 98, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .384 → .308; ISO .154 → .118; BABIP .379 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 165 PAwOBA .315 → .281 (−34)K% 18.8% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.79% | ÷1.052 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.122 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.050 | ×0.920 | ×1.047 | ×0.978 | 19.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.21% | ÷0.875 | ×0.910 | ×1.047 | ×0.978 | 7.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.047 | ×0.978 | 2.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.041 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.68% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 110, 2B 75, 3B 80, K 110, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .315 → .281; ISO .120 → .125; BABIP .315 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 390 PAwOBA .334 → .283 (−51)K% 16.7% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 23.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.16% | ÷0.986 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.146 | ×0.880 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.81% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.42% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 129, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .334 → .283; ISO .106 → .091; BABIP .332 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAADurham Bulls · 94 PAwOBA .281 → .244 (−37)K% 18.1% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.09% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.13% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 1.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.29% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×1.018 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.22% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×1.018 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.022 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×1.018 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 104, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .281 → .244; ISO .089 → .075; BABIP .324 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 319 PAwOBA .313 → .270 (−43)K% 14.4% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.42% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.21% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.31% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.18% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×0.998 | 18.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.040 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×0.998 | 7.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.22% | ÷0.994 | ×0.880 | ×1.008 | ×0.998 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.081 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 99, K 96, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .313 → .270; ISO .144 → .120; BABIP .292 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 189 PAwOBA .347 → .269 (−78)K% 19.0% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.971 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.35% | ÷1.040 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 4.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.74% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×0.978 | 25.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.57% | ÷1.290 | ×0.960 | ×1.027 | ×0.978 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.027 | ×0.978 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.92% | ÷1.142 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 2.20% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 158, 3B 130, K 94, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .347 → .269; ISO .145 → .100; BABIP .368 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 61 PAwOBA .312 → .217 (−95)K% 21.3% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.31% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.28% | ÷1.068 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 2.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.22% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×0.980 | 13.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷1.090 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | ×0.980 | 9.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.130 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 3.02% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 101, 2B 118, 3B 94, K 94, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .312 → .217; ISO .203 → .131; BABIP .295 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGCL Rays · 195 PAwOBA .338 → .231 (−106)K% 20.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 8.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.975 | ×0.965 | 14.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.975 | ×0.965 | 6.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.975 | ×0.965 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 1.25% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .338 → .231; ISO .145 → .100; BABIP .308 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .