Zack Zehner
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 467 | .270/.341/.459 | 14 | 3 | 74 | — | .221/.276/.368 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 409 | .226/.304/.386 | 12 | 3 | 47 | — | .183/.238/.305 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 263 | .244/.349/.369 | 4 | 6 | 63 | — | .211/.283/.308 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | — | 451 | 385 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 63 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 278 | 384 | 374 | 758 | 96 | 356 | 20 | 14 | 348 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 501 | 431 | 112 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 64 | 125 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 260 | 357 | 408 | 765 | 148 | 340 | 25 | 13 | 342 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 332 | 302 | 79 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 94 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 322 | 444 | 766 | 182 | 345 | 28 | 7 | 336 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 135 | 116 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 293 | 388 | 500 | 888 | 207 | 375 | 24 | 13 | 389 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 214 | 192 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 63 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 266 | 329 | 474 | 803 | 208 | 339 | 29 | 8 | 347 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 195 | 171 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 181 | 278 | 287 | 565 | 105 | 235 | 26 | 11 | 261 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 237 | 205 | 49 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 70 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 239 | 336 | 371 | 707 | 132 | 338 | 30 | 13 | 319 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 26 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 300 | 462 | 350 | 812 | 50 | 462 | 27 | 23 | 384 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 451 | 402 | 95 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 46 | 129 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 236 | 319 | 326 | 645 | 90 | 341 | 29 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 501 | 449 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 151 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 238 | 310 | 361 | 671 | 122 | 332 | 30 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 332 | 309 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 113 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 255 | 346 | 602 | 139 | 290 | 34 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 135 | 121 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 256 | 328 | 421 | 750 | 165 | 352 | 30 | 9 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 214 | 198 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 75 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 217 | 262 | 379 | 641 | 162 | 283 | 35 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 195 | 179 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 145 | 211 | 223 | 435 | 78 | 211 | 33 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 237 | 215 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 85 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 205 | 272 | 307 | 579 | 102 | 311 | 36 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 26 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 273 | 385 | 318 | 703 | 45 | 415 | 31 | 15 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 451 | 402 | 95 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 46 | 129 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 236 | 319 | 326 | 645 | 90 | 341 | 29 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | Tampa Yankees | — | 451 | 385 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 63 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 278 | 384 | 374 | 758 | 96 | 356 | 20 | 14 | 348 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 501 | 449 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 151 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 238 | 310 | 361 | 671 | 122 | 337 | 30 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Trenton Thunder | — | 501 | 431 | 112 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 64 | 125 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 260 | 357 | 408 | 765 | 148 | 340 | 25 | 13 | 342 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 467 | 430 | 95 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 153 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 221 | 276 | 365 | 642 | 144 | 312 | 33 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 467 | 418 | 113 | 25 | 6 | 14 | 40 | 127 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 270 | 341 | 459 | 801 | 189 | 354 | 27 | 9 | 351 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 377 | 69 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 139 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 183 | 238 | 305 | 543 | 122 | 256 | 34 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 409 | 363 | 82 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 40 | 113 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 226 | 304 | 386 | 690 | 160 | 288 | 28 | 10 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 263 | 237 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 94 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 207 | 280 | 304 | 583 | 97 | 324 | 36 | 9 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 263 | 225 | 55 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 77 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 244 | 349 | 369 | 718 | 124 | 349 | 29 | 14 | 325 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 451 | 399 | 95 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 46 | 129 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 238 | 319 | 328 | 648 | 90 | 341 | 29 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 501 | 449 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 151 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 238 | 310 | 361 | 671 | 122 | 332 | 30 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 467 | 431 | 95 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 153 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 220 | 276 | 364 | 641 | 144 | 308 | 33 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 379 | 69 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 139 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 182 | 238 | 303 | 541 | 121 | 249 | 34 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 263 | 237 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 94 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 207 | 280 | 304 | 583 | 97 | 321 | 36 | 9 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2091 | 1895 | 415 | 85 | 16 | 35 | 170 | 666 | 10 | 21 | 15 | 219 | 287 | 336 | 623 | 117 | 315 | 32 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -70 | -2 | +0 | -22 | +45 | -5.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 129 | 26 | 5 | 11 | 53 | 207 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 219 | 287 | 336 | 623 | 117 | 315 | 32 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -22 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 237 PAwOBA .314 → .257 (−57)K% 29.5% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.54% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.66% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 8.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.70% | ÷0.971 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×0.982 | 22.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.15% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×0.982 | 7.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.109 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.982 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.96% | ÷0.886 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.30% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .314 → .257; ISO .132 → .106; BABIP .338 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASomerset Patriots · 26 PAwOBA .376 → .309 (−67)K% 26.9% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.08% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.958 | 14.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.46% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.958 | 34.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.905 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 7.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .376 → .309; ISO .050 → .049; BABIP .462 → .415. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 214 PAwOBA .343 → .269 (−74)K% 29.4% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.44% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.41% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 20.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.53% | ÷1.009 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 6.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.938 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.087 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 5.41% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 88, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .343 → .269; ISO .208 → .162; BABIP .339 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATrenton Thunder · 195 PAwOBA .254 → .203 (−51)K% 25.6% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.64% | ÷0.956 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷0.999 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 16.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.48% | ÷1.040 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 1.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.937 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 2.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.97% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 87, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .254 → .203; ISO .105 → .085; BABIP .235 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 332 PAwOBA .329 → .260 (−69)K% 28.3% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.31% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.93% | ÷1.034 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.60% | ÷1.032 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 19.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.13% | ÷1.004 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 7.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.81% | ÷1.046 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 3.93% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 126, K 100, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .329 → .260; ISO .182 → .142; BABIP .345 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATrenton Thunder · 135 PAwOBA .382 → .323 (−58)K% 24.4% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.44% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.59% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 8.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.30% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 25.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 5.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.61% | ÷0.944 | ×0.950 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 3.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.82% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.59% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 108, 3B 89, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .382 → .323; ISO .207 → .167; BABIP .375 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AATrenton Thunder · 501 PAwOBA .335 → .294 (−40)K% 25.0% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.95% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷0.979 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.20% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.18% | ÷1.020 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 24.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.52% | ÷0.936 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 7.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.31% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.59% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.92% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .335 → .294; ISO .148 → .128; BABIP .340 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Tampa Yankees · 451 PAwOBA .340 → .288 (−52)K% 20.0% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.96% | ÷0.988 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.97% | ÷1.021 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 10.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.44% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 24.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.14% | ÷0.953 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 8.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.032 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.862 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.03% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 104, 2B 91, 3B 106, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .340 → .288; ISO .096 → .090; BABIP .356 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).