Peter Strzelecki
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.31
FIP4.52
K%20.7%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+1.1 (49%)
SL+0.5 (18%)
CH (20%)
SI (7%)
CT-0.7 (13%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 23 | 0 | 29 | 128 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 5.52 | 3.82 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 23 | 0 | 29 | 128 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.0% | 8.6% | 23.4% | 1.6% | 5.52 | 2.32 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 66 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 3.05 | 3.37 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 66 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.4% | 5.8% | 21.6% | 1.7% | 3.05 | 2.46 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 71 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.5% | 8.3% | 18.2% | 3.5% | 3.46 | 3.84 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 71 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.4% | 7.3% | 25.1% | 2.7% | 3.46 | 2.79 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 67 | 268 | 90 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.3% | 8.8% | 22.6% | 2.6% | 2.83 | 3.00 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 67 | 268 | 90 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.6% | 8.6% | 25.0% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 2.60 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 57 | 264 | 64 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 1.1% | 5.68 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 57 | 264 | 64 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 1.1% | 5.68 | 3.12 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 58 | 250 | 64 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 15.6% | 1.9% | 4.47 | 3.20 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 58 | 250 | 64 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 7.6% | 18.0% | 2.0% | 4.47 | 3.00 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 18 | 1 | 22 | 110 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 6% | 1.2 | 14.4% | 12.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 9.41 | 4.70 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 18 | 1 | 22 | 110 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 6% | 1.2 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 9.41 | 5.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 50 | 2 | 54 | 230 | 66 | 11 | 7 | 4% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 3.44 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYY | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYY | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 105 | 442 | 110 | 32 | 13 | — | — | 24.9% | 7.3% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 3.96 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 5.08 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 5.08 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 0 | 149 | 633 | 140 | 57 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 3.67 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 851 | 188 | 77 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 3.67 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 338 | 3 | 399 | 1710 | 414 | 149 | 40 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 2.4% | 4.38 | 3.46 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 170 | 2 | 200 | 858 | 207 | 75 | 20 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 2.4% | 4.38 | 3.46 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Peter Strzelecki (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.99 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 128 | +0.47 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 84 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 82 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 82 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 82 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 82 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 81 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 81 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | .270 | 4.93 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.27 | 2.90 | 227 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 79 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.42 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .247 | 3.86 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.44 | 3.15 | 272 | 79 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 79 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 78 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.46 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 136 | +0.17 | 2.78 | 596 | 78 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 78 |
| Jim Johnson R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 78 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.37 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .308 | 4.72 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 90 | +1.35 | 3.37 | 170 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 44 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 1.21 | 4.67 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |