Peter Strzelecki

Peter Strzelecki P Memphis Redbirds

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA3.98

FIP4.16

K%19.4%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p1017.0%

p1013.1%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

FB+1.1 (49%)

SL+0.5 (18%)

CH (20%)

SI (7%)

CT-0.7 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	23	0	29	128	41	11	2	0%	1.3	21.8%	10.7%	11.0%	2.2%	5.52	3.82	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	Helena Brewers	23	0	29	128	41	11	2	0%	1.3	32.0%	8.6%	23.4%	1.6%	5.52	2.32	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	241	66	14	4	0%	1.5	20.5%	6.8%	13.7%	2.1%	3.05	3.39	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	241	66	14	4	0%	1.5	27.4%	5.8%	21.6%	1.7%	3.05	2.46	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	52	219	71	16	6	0%	1.3	26.5%	8.3%	18.2%	3.2%	3.46	3.70	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	52	219	71	16	6	0%	1.3	32.4%	7.3%	25.1%	2.7%	3.46	2.79	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	67	268	90	23	6	0%	1.2	31.3%	8.8%	22.6%	2.4%	2.83	2.91	+1.3
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	67	268	90	23	6	0%	1.2	33.6%	8.6%	25.0%	2.2%	2.83	2.60	+1.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	57	264	64	30	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	1.2%	5.68	3.21	+0.9
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	57	264	64	30	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	1.2%	5.68	3.21	+0.9
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	57	264	64	30	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.4%	12.9%	1.1%	5.68	3.12	+1.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	250	64	19	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.1%	15.4%	2.0%	4.47	3.22	+0.9
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	250	64	19	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.1%	15.4%	2.0%	4.47	3.22	+0.9
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	58	250	64	19	5	0%	1.1	25.6%	7.6%	18.0%	2.0%	4.47	3.00	+1.1
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	18	1	22	110	18	13	4	6%	1.2	13.6%	10.6%	2.9%	2.9%	9.41	4.89	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	18	1	22	110	18	13	4	6%	1.2	13.6%	10.6%	2.9%	2.9%	9.41	4.89	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	18	1	22	110	18	13	4	6%	1.2	16.4%	11.8%	4.5%	3.6%	9.41	5.60	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	0	98	419	94	33	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	7.9%	14.6%	1.7%	3.78	3.12	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	40	1	49	208	50	13	8	2%	1.2	20.5%	6.0%	14.5%	4.3%	4.99	4.48	—
YTD	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	40	1	49	208	50	13	8	2%	1.2	20.5%	6.0%	14.5%	4.3%	4.99	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	A RAW	STL	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	STL	31	1	34	144	41	7	7	3%	1.1	28.5%	4.9%	23.6%	4.9%	4.81	3.98	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	STL	8	0	14	61	8	6	1	0%	1.8	13.1%	9.8%	3.3%	1.6%	5.79	4.14	+0.1
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	STL	8	0	14	61	8	6	1	0%	1.8	13.1%	9.8%	3.3%	1.6%	5.79	4.14	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB MLE	STL	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	2.9%	3.98	4.16	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	STL	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	2.9%	3.98	4.16	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	52	221	53	14	8	—	—	23.8%	6.4%	17.4%	3.8%	4.93	4.46	+0.1
FULL	31	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	17	72	53	14	8	—	—	72.8%	19.6%	53.2%	11.6%	14.94	5.81	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	STL	44	0	46	196	35	19	6	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.8%	8.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.85	-0.2
2028	33	MLB MLE	STL	41	0	43	180	31	18	6	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	3.3%	4.91	5.09	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	STL	42	0	44	186	33	18	6	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.8%	8.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.85	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	STL	38	0	40	169	29	17	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	3.3%	4.91	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	185	789	159	70	18	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.8%	11.3%	2.3%	4.24	3.80	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	0	200	852	172	76	19	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.8%	11.3%	2.3%	4.24	3.80	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		328	2	393	1688	392	142	42	1%	1.2	23.2%	8.4%	14.8%	2.5%	4.44	3.56	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	1	200	859	200	72	21	1%	1.2	23.2%	8.4%	14.8%	2.5%	4.44	3.56	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peter Strzelecki (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	19.1%	9.3%	2.8%	—	4.96	17.6%	7.6%	89	+0.36	—	—	—
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	85
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	85
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	85
Junichi Tazawa R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	16.0%	7.6%	3.5%	.270	4.81	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.16	2.94	227	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	81
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	81
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	81
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	80
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	80
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	80
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	80
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	79
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	79
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	79
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	77
George Kontos R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	16.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.242	4.12	18.9%	12.7%	163	+0.57	3.55	290	77
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	76
Fernando Villalobos R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	12.3%	8.6%	1.6%	.305	4.70	10.6%	2.6%	55	+0.70	4.00	152	76
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	18.1%	9.8%	1.17	4.66
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43