Chris Rabago
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 26 | AAA/AACOL | 232 | .221/.323/.337 | 4 | 8 | 37 | — | .171/.240/.232 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAACOL | 178 | .234/.331/.325 | 3 | 4 | 33 | — | .173/.247/.235 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA/AADET | 179 | .191/.282/.280 | 2 | 2 | 23 | — | .161/.237/.223 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 188 | 170 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 306 | 359 | 441 | 800 | 135 | 363 | 19 | 5 | 350 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 33 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 303 | 241 | 544 | 34 | 231 | 9 | 12 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 318 | 279 | 76 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 50 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 272 | 347 | 333 | 681 | 61 | 329 | 16 | 8 | 307 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 361 | 305 | 83 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 35 | 53 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 272 | 353 | 393 | 747 | 121 | 319 | 15 | 10 | 324 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 259 | 230 | 45 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 62 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 196 | 273 | 326 | 600 | 130 | 248 | 24 | 9 | 269 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 57 | 54 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 259 | 298 | 407 | 706 | 148 | 300 | 21 | 5 | 314 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 175 | 145 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 40 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 207 | 331 | 310 | 642 | 103 | 272 | 23 | 15 | 296 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 178 | 154 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 234 | 331 | 325 | 656 | 91 | 306 | 24 | 12 | 304 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 103 | 90 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 267 | 256 | 523 | 78 | 250 | 31 | 8 | 243 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 76 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 303 | 313 | 616 | 104 | 341 | 34 | 9 | 285 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 188 | 174 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 218 | 261 | 305 | 565 | 86 | 275 | 27 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 318 | 288 | 68 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 236 | 293 | 278 | 570 | 42 | 300 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 361 | 320 | 70 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 23 | 79 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 219 | 282 | 303 | 585 | 84 | 268 | 22 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 259 | 238 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 75 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 168 | 227 | 269 | 495 | 101 | 227 | 29 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 57 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 228 | 273 | 501 | 73 | 270 | 28 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 175 | 155 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 48 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 161 | 244 | 219 | 464 | 58 | 222 | 27 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 178 | 162 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 173 | 247 | 235 | 482 | 62 | 243 | 30 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 103 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 228 | 196 | 423 | 43 | 232 | 37 | 6 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 76 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 250 | 261 | 511 | 87 | 295 | 42 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 221 | 206 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 59 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 218 | 258 | 306 | 564 | 87 | 291 | 27 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 221 | 199 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 291 | 350 | 412 | 762 | 121 | 342 | 17 | 6 | 336 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 318 | 288 | 68 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 236 | 293 | 278 | 570 | 42 | 308 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 318 | 279 | 76 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 50 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 272 | 347 | 333 | 681 | 61 | 329 | 16 | 8 | 307 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 361 | 320 | 70 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 23 | 79 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 219 | 282 | 303 | 585 | 84 | 280 | 22 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ RAW | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 361 | 305 | 83 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 35 | 53 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 272 | 353 | 393 | 747 | 121 | 319 | 15 | 10 | 324 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 259 | 238 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 75 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 168 | 227 | 269 | 495 | 101 | 230 | 29 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | Trenton Thunder | — | 259 | 230 | 45 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 62 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 196 | 273 | 326 | 600 | 130 | 248 | 24 | 9 | 269 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 210 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 176 | 245 | 257 | 502 | 81 | 239 | 28 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 232 | 199 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 52 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 221 | 323 | 337 | 660 | 116 | 280 | 22 | 12 | 300 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 178 | 162 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 173 | 247 | 235 | 482 | 62 | 245 | 30 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 178 | 154 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 234 | 331 | 325 | 656 | 91 | 306 | 24 | 12 | 304 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 162 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 154 | 226 | 210 | 436 | 56 | 264 | 39 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 179 | 157 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 58 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 191 | 282 | 280 | 563 | 89 | 289 | 32 | 8 | 260 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 221 | 208 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 59 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 216 | 258 | 303 | 561 | 87 | 275 | 27 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 318 | 292 | 68 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 233 | 293 | 274 | 567 | 41 | 300 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 361 | 330 | 70 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 23 | 79 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 212 | 282 | 294 | 576 | 82 | 268 | 22 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 259 | 239 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 75 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 167 | 227 | 268 | 494 | 100 | 227 | 29 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 211 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 175 | 245 | 256 | 500 | 81 | 234 | 28 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 178 | 160 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 175 | 247 | 237 | 485 | 62 | 243 | 30 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 162 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 154 | 226 | 210 | 436 | 56 | 259 | 39 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1748 | 1586 | 313 | 57 | 12 | 12 | 107 | 471 | 23 | 66 | 24 | 197 | 258 | 271 | 529 | 74 | 270 | 27 | 6 | 234 | 45 | -115 | +4 | +0 | +31 | +38 | -4.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 115 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 175 | 9 | 25 | 9 | 195 | 257 | 264 | 521 | 69 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 234 | 45 | -43 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 103 PAwOBA .237 → .195 (−42)K% 31.1% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.07% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.77% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.91% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 2.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.41% | ÷1.015 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 21.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 1.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .237 → .195; ISO .078 → .053; BABIP .250 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 76 PAwOBA .278 → .213 (−64)K% 34.2% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.21% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.21% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.958 | 17.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.20% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 9.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.958 | 2.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .278 → .213; ISO .104 → .082; BABIP .341 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 178 PAwOBA .297 → .217 (−80)K% 24.2% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.16% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.80% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.23% | ÷1.110 | ×0.930 | ×0.967 | ×0.992 | 20.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.50% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×0.992 | 3.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.172 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.60% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 122, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .297 → .217; ISO .091 → .059; BABIP .306 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAHartford Yard Goats · 175 PAwOBA .284 → .219 (−66)K% 22.9% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.86% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.71% | ÷1.042 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.10% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 16.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.178 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.190 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.23% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 106, 2B 136, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .284 → .219; ISO .103 → .072; BABIP .272 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 57 PAwOBA .305 → .236 (−68)K% 21.1% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.957 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷0.974 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.018 | 22.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.071 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 3.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.136 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 3.33% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 91, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .305 → .236; ISO .148 → .098; BABIP .300 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATrenton Thunder · 259 PAwOBA .261 → .218 (−43)K% 23.9% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.94% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.88% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.88% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | ×0.967 | ×0.998 | 14.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.967 | ×0.998 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.944 | ×0.950 | ×0.967 | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 108, 3B 89, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .261 → .218; ISO .130 → .103; BABIP .248 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 361 PAwOBA .320 → .255 (−65)K% 14.7% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.68% | ÷0.897 | ×1.340 | — | — | 21.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.42% | ÷1.017 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 19.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 5.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.136 | ×0.760 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.40% | ÷1.600 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 0.23% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 220, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 127, K 79, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .320 → .255; ISO .121 → .086; BABIP .319 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAsheville Tourists · 318 PAwOBA .301 → .253 (−48)K% 15.7% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.72% | ÷0.969 | ×1.340 | — | — | 21.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.49% | ÷0.987 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 5.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.64% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 25.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.68% | ÷1.267 | ×0.820 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 3.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.232 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 93, 2B 153, 3B 80, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .301 → .253; ISO .061 → .045; BABIP .329 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).