Ryan Nutof prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ryan Nutof P Louisville Bats

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%19.9%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	21	0	29	137	30	14	1	0%	1.4	14.9%	12.8%	2.1%	1.0%	4.08	4.02	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	21	0	29	137	30	14	1	0%	1.4	21.9%	10.2%	11.7%	0.7%	4.08	2.93	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	73	318	77	25	3	0%	1.6	18.4%	9.6%	8.7%	1.2%	2.95	3.40	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	73	318	77	25	3	0%	1.6	24.2%	7.9%	16.4%	0.9%	2.95	2.55	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	49	207	56	12	3	0%	1.2	21.2%	6.5%	14.7%	1.7%	3.83	3.09	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	49	207	56	12	3	0%	1.2	27.1%	5.8%	21.3%	1.4%	3.83	2.35	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	59	264	67	34	3	0%	1.4	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	1.0%	3.05	3.48	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	59	264	67	34	3	0%	1.4	25.4%	12.9%	12.5%	1.1%	3.05	3.22	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	59	0	66	289	58	41	6	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.8%	4.5%	2.2%	5.35	4.45	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	59	0	66	289	58	41	6	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.8%	4.5%	2.2%	5.35	4.45	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	59	0	66	289	58	41	6	0%	1.1	20.1%	14.2%	5.9%	2.1%	5.35	4.39	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	11.0%	8.9%	2.9%	4.80	4.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CIN	40	0	42	176	35	20	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.87	4.95	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	CIN	14	0	15	63	13	7	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	11.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.87	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	15	65	13	7	2	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.87	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	92	26	0%	1.1	19.8%	11.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.87	4.57	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		210	0	276	1215	230	133	18	0%	1.3	18.9%	11.0%	8.0%	1.4%	3.82	3.69	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	880	167	97	13	0%	1.3	18.9%	11.0%	8.0%	1.4%	3.82	3.69	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Nutof (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	19.9%	11.0%	2.9%	—	4.95	19.8%	8.7%	42	+0.15	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	92
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	91
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	89
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	88
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	87
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	84
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	84
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	84
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	78
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	78
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	76
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	76
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	76
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	76
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	76
Tyler Yates R 2008 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	19.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.293	5.06	16.1%	5.4%	12	+1.16	3.23	248	75
Greg Burke R 2013 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	17.9%	8.3%	1.9%	.357	3.61	22.1%	14.8%	62	-0.09	3.61	139	75
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	19.8%	11.1%	1.18	4.83
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99