Zach Willeman

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX2 levels	50	0	60	5.85	5.02	23.4%	13.8%	—	K 20.0% · BB 14.6% · FIP 5.71
2023	27	AAMIA	14	0	18	7.13	6.55	18.8%	16.2%	—	K 15.2% · BB 17.9% · FIP 7.10
2025	29	AACIN	12	11	58	4.34	4.05	13.4%	9.3%	—	K 10.9% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	31	MLBCIN	62	0	65	5.70	5.70	10.2%	12.0%	-0.8
2028PROJ31% MLB	32	MLBCIN	18	0	19	5.70	5.79	11.1%	12.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ51% MLB	33	MLBCIN	27	0	28	5.79	5.93	11.5%	12.4%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command30

CompsRudy Gonzalez (age 34) · Marco Carrillo (age 30) · Luis Angel Daniel (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%10.2%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%-1.8%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	19	70	24	8	0	12%	2.4	34.3%	11.4%	22.9%	0.0%	1.42	1.65	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	19	70	24	8	0	12%	2.4	34.3%	11.4%	22.9%	0.0%	1.42	1.84	—
2019	23	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	21	6	80	378	55	48	8	29%	3.8	10.8%	15.0%	-4.2%	2.7%	5.38	5.57	—
2019	23	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	21	6	80	378	55	48	8	29%	3.8	14.6%	12.7%	1.9%	2.1%	5.38	4.82	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	33	0	48	209	59	23	4	0%	1.4	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	2.5%	3.78	4.05	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	33	0	48	209	59	23	4	0%	1.4	28.2%	11.0%	17.2%	1.9%	3.78	3.16	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	60	269	63	37	10	0%	1.2	20.0%	14.6%	5.4%	4.5%	5.85	5.71	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	60	269	63	37	10	0%	1.2	23.4%	13.8%	9.7%	3.7%	5.85	5.02	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	14	0	18	80	15	13	4	0%	1.3	15.2%	17.9%	-2.7%	5.5%	7.13	7.10	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	14	0	18	80	15	13	4	0%	1.3	18.8%	16.2%	2.5%	5.0%	7.13	6.55	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	11	58	246	33	23	4	92%	4.8	10.9%	10.3%	0.6%	1.9%	4.34	4.53	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	11	58	246	33	23	4	92%	4.8	10.9%	10.3%	0.6%	1.9%	4.34	4.53	—
2025	29	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	11	58	246	33	23	4	92%	4.8	13.4%	9.3%	4.1%	1.6%	4.34	4.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CIN	62	0	65	274	28	33	8	0%	1.0	10.2%	12.0%	-1.8%	2.9%	5.70	5.70	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CIN	57	0	60	254	28	31	8	0%	1.1	11.1%	12.1%	-1.0%	3.1%	5.70	5.79	-0.8
2029	33	MLB MLE	CIN	53	0	55	233	27	29	8	0%	1.0	11.5%	12.4%	-0.8%	3.4%	5.79	5.93	-0.8
2028	32	MLB CTX	CIN	18	0	19	80	9	10	2	0%	1.1	11.1%	12.1%	-1.0%	3.1%	5.70	5.79	-0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	CIN	27	0	28	118	14	15	4	0%	1.0	11.5%	12.4%	-0.8%	3.4%	5.79	5.93	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	47	199	23	24	7	0%	1.0	11.4%	12.3%	-0.9%	3.3%	5.75	5.49	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	97	102	30	0%	1.0	11.4%	12.3%	-0.9%	3.3%	5.75	5.49	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		138	18	283	1252	205	169	36	13%	2.0	16.4%	13.5%	2.9%	2.9%	4.84	5.02	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	13	200	886	145	119	26	13%	2.0	16.4%	13.5%	2.9%	2.9%	4.84	5.02	-3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Willeman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	10.2%	12.0%	2.9%	—	5.86	11.3%	-0.9%	115	+0.16	—	—	—
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	80
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	77
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	76
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	74
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	74
Jeff Gray R 2012 · 5.43 FIP	30	SU	5.43	11.0%	9.3%	3.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	127	74
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	73
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	73
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	72
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	72
Rodney Myers R 2001 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	13.7%	9.5%	2.8%	.301	3.98	10.9%	1.0%	21	-0.72	3.98	218	71
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	71
Tony Fiore R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	31	SU	5.17	14.3%	12.4%	3.1%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	142	68
Benjamin Sandoval R 2017 · 5.23 FIP	30	SU	5.23	3.4%	12.3%	1.6%	.281	5.65	11.8%	-2.2%	33	+0.42	4.66	146	68
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	67
Esmailin Caridad R 2015 · 5.85 FIP	31	SU	5.85	9.9%	9.4%	4.3%	.324	3.80	18.9%	10.7%	63	-2.05	1.67	101	67
Jaye Chapman R 2017 · 5.51 FIP	30	SU	5.51	13.0%	13.4%	3.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	162	67
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	66
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	66
Tim Corcoran R 2007 · 5.29 FIP	29	SU	5.29	7.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	130	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	10.9%	12.2%	1.20	5.73
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Larry Bearnarth ('63-'71, -3 WAR*)	1.6	81	11.0%*	10.7%*	1.16*	5.02*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*