Spenser Watkins

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 34 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	29	MIX2 levels	27	24	118	4.50	4.10	14.8%	6.5%	1.1	K 13.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.09
2023	30	MIX2 levels	22	17	75	8.00	4.92	18.8%	12.0%	-0.0	K 16.1% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.69
2024	31	AAAWSH	25	23	118	4.56	3.85	18.1%	7.7%	—	K 15.6% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.11
2027PROJ	34	MLBWSH	11	11	68	4.57	4.67	19.1%	8.9%	0.2
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBWSH	1	1	3	4.83	5.01	18.1%	9.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	36	MLBWSH	—	—	0	5.16	5.38	17.1%	10.1%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

xwOBA vs21

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsJarrett Grube (age 34) · Guillermo Moscoso (age 34) · Manuel Flores (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.57

FIP4.67

K%19.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p1019.7%

p1013.7%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

CT+0.6

SL-1.1

FB-1.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	4	3	19	80	14	6	0	75%	4.7	13.0%	8.8%	4.1%	0.0%	3.38	3.13	—
2015	22	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	4	3	19	80	14	6	0	75%	4.7	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	0.0%	3.38	2.56	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	79	340	70	25	7	93%	5.7	15.9%	8.1%	7.8%	3.2%	3.97	4.51	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	79	340	70	25	7	93%	5.7	20.6%	7.4%	13.2%	2.1%	3.97	3.43	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	110	476	83	39	10	82%	5.0	13.0%	9.6%	3.4%	2.9%	3.53	4.80	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	110	476	83	39	10	82%	5.0	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	2.1%	3.53	3.84	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	18	137	556	113	45	8	67%	5.1	16.1%	8.9%	7.3%	1.2%	2.76	3.50	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	18	137	556	113	45	8	67%	5.1	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	1.4%	2.76	3.19	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	138	608	121	44	26	89%	5.1	16.9%	7.8%	9.1%	5.2%	6.07	5.49	—
2019	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	24	138	608	121	44	26	89%	5.1	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	4.3%	6.07	4.75	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	90	402	65	30	20	67%	3.8	15.3%	7.6%	7.7%	4.8%	6.28	5.39	-0.5
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	90	402	65	30	20	67%	3.8	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	5.0%	6.28	5.54	-0.6
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	118	508	75	33	13	89%	4.4	13.7%	6.5%	7.2%	2.4%	4.50	4.09	+1.1
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	118	508	75	33	13	89%	4.4	14.8%	6.5%	8.3%	2.6%	4.50	4.10	+1.1
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	75	368	69	44	11	77%	3.4	16.1%	10.9%	5.2%	2.9%	8.00	4.69	+0.2
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	75	368	69	44	11	77%	3.4	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	3.0%	8.00	4.92	-0.0
2024	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	25	23	118	507	92	39	12	92%	4.7	15.6%	6.9%	8.7%	2.6%	4.56	4.11	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	25	23	118	507	92	39	12	92%	4.7	15.6%	6.9%	8.7%	2.6%	4.56	4.11	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	25	23	118	507	92	39	12	92%	4.7	18.1%	7.7%	10.5%	2.4%	4.56	3.85	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	31	164	735	102	51	27	78%	4.1	13.9%	6.9%	6.9%	3.7%	5.97	4.93	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	WSH	11	11	68	287	55	26	9	100%	6.2	19.1%	8.9%	10.2%	3.1%	4.57	4.67	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	61	258	47	24	9	100%	6.1	18.1%	9.5%	8.7%	3.4%	4.83	5.01	-0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	54	229	39	23	9	100%	6.0	17.1%	10.1%	7.1%	3.8%	5.16	5.38	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	WSH	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	18.1%	9.5%	8.7%	3.4%	4.83	5.01	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.1%	10.1%	7.1%	3.8%	5.16	5.38	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	32	168	749	105	52	27	78%	4.1	14.0%	7.0%	7.0%	3.7%	5.95	4.82	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		48	38	200	894	125	62	32	78%	4.1	14.0%	7.0%	7.0%	3.7%	5.95	4.82	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		192	156	885	3845	588	316	118	81%	4.6	15.3%	8.2%	7.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.53	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	35	200	869	133	71	27	81%	4.6	15.3%	8.2%	7.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.53	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spenser Watkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	19.1%	8.9%	3.1%	—	5.18	17.7%	7.9%	115	+0.51	—	—	—
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	72
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	71
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	70
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	69
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	66
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	65
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	65
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	64
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	64
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	63
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	62
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	62
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	61
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	61
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	60
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	60
Francisco Rodriguez R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	34	SP	4.43	11.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.305	5.18	10.7%	1.4%	83	+0.75	3.16	334	60
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	60
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	58
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	70	16.1%	8.2%	1.36	5.37
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*