Spenser Watkins
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.2
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
xFIP5.85
SIERA5.31
K%19.1%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%10.0%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5555
CMD3535
K†3040
FB Velo
p1091.4
Whiff%
p1019.7%
K%
p1013.7%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
CT+0.6
SL-1.1
FB-1.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 4 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 13.0% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 3.13 | +0.4 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 14 | 13 | 79 | 340 | 70 | 25 | 7 | 15.9% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 4.52 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 22 | 18 | 110 | 476 | 83 | 39 | 10 | 13.0% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 3.53 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 27 | 18 | 137 | 556 | 113 | 45 | 8 | 16.1% | 8.9% | 1.2% | 2.76 | 3.51 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 27 | 24 | 138 | 608 | 121 | 44 | 26 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 6.07 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 24 | 16 | 90 | 402 | 65 | 30 | 20 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 6.28 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 27 | 24 | 118 | 508 | 75 | 33 | 13 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.50 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 22 | 17 | 75 | 368 | 69 | 44 | 11 | 16.5% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 8.00 | 4.89 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 25 | 23 | 118 | 507 | 92 | 39 | 12 | 16.0% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.23 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 59 | 36 | 11 | 15.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 5.02 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 56 | 30 | 10 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.89 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 47 | 27 | 9 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 39 | 24 | 8 | 15.4% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 5.11 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 192 | 156 | 885 | 3845 | 592 | 328 | 118 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.57 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 35 | 200 | 869 | 134 | 74 | 27 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.57 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spenser Watkins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 15.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 5.03 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 208 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.57 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 365 | 84 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 83 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.25 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | +0.10 | 4.25 | 171 | 83 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.70 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 81 |
| Jason Berken R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.51 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 219 | 80 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.66 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | .326 | 5.79 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.13 | 4.66 | 195 | 80 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 515 | 79 |
| Leo Medrano R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 222 | 78 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.35 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 275 | 78 |
| Sam LeCure R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 171 | 78 |
| Michael Nix R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.52 | 11.9% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 234 | 76 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.07 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.3% | .278 | 5.31 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.24 | 3.75 | 521 | 76 |
| Chris Young R 2029 · 4.62 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .209 | 6.35 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.73 | 4.62 | 242 | 76 |
| David Fletcher R 2023 · 5.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.65 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.65 | 100 | 75 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.96 | 10.2% | 5.3% | 1.9% | .285 | 3.94 | 12.0% | 6.0% | 207 | -0.02 | 3.19 | 450 | 73 |
| Matt Cain R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.07 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 294 | 72 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.3% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .304 | 3.50 | 14.5% | 7.1% | 139 | -1.92 | 3.50 | 292 | 72 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.54 | 10.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .328 | 5.54 | 14.7% | 3.6% | 57 | +1.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 71 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.85 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .322 | 4.82 | 15.9% | 9.5% | 147 | -0.03 | 3.94 | 567 | 70 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.66 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 4.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 199 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.