Spenser Watkins — OGILVIE

Spenser Watkins P Rochester Red Wings

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.06

K%13.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%5.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p1019.7%

p1013.7%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

CT+0.6

SL-1.1

FB-1.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	4	3	19	80	14	6	0	75%	4.7	13.0%	8.8%	4.1%	0.0%	3.38	3.13	—
2015	22	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	4	3	19	80	14	6	0	75%	4.7	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	0.0%	3.38	2.56	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	79	340	70	25	7	93%	5.7	15.9%	8.1%	7.8%	3.2%	3.97	4.51	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	79	340	70	25	7	93%	5.7	20.6%	7.4%	13.2%	2.1%	3.97	3.43	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	110	476	83	39	10	82%	5.0	13.0%	9.6%	3.4%	2.9%	3.53	4.80	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	110	476	83	39	10	82%	5.0	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	2.1%	3.53	3.84	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	18	137	556	113	45	8	67%	5.1	16.1%	8.9%	7.3%	1.2%	2.76	3.50	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	18	137	556	113	45	8	67%	5.1	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	1.4%	2.76	3.19	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	138	608	121	44	26	89%	5.1	16.9%	7.8%	9.1%	5.2%	6.07	5.49	—
2019	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	24	138	608	121	44	26	89%	5.1	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	4.3%	6.07	4.75	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	90	402	65	30	20	67%	3.8	15.3%	7.6%	7.7%	4.8%	6.28	5.39	-0.5
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	90	402	65	30	20	67%	3.8	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	5.0%	6.28	5.54	-0.6
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	118	508	75	33	13	89%	4.4	13.7%	6.5%	7.2%	2.4%	4.50	4.09	+1.1
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	118	508	75	33	13	89%	4.4	14.8%	6.5%	8.3%	2.6%	4.50	4.10	+1.1
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	75	368	69	44	11	77%	3.4	15.5%	10.9%	4.7%	2.9%	8.00	4.74	+0.1
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	75	368	69	44	11	77%	3.4	15.5%	10.9%	4.7%	2.9%	8.00	4.74	+0.1
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	75	368	69	44	11	77%	3.4	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	3.0%	8.00	4.92	-0.0
2024	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	25	23	118	507	92	39	12	92%	4.7	15.1%	6.9%	8.1%	2.6%	4.56	4.15	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	25	23	118	507	92	39	12	92%	4.7	15.1%	6.9%	8.1%	2.6%	4.56	4.15	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	25	23	118	507	92	39	12	92%	4.7	18.1%	7.7%	10.5%	2.4%	4.56	3.85	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	31	164	735	102	51	27	78%	4.1	13.9%	6.9%	6.9%	3.7%	5.97	4.93	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	WSH	1	1	5	21	3	2	1	100%	5.0	13.8%	8.7%	5.1%	3.0%	5.05	5.06	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	57	240	31	22	8	100%	6.3	12.9%	9.2%	3.7%	3.3%	5.24	5.36	-0.3
2028	35	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	51	215	26	21	8	100%	6.4	11.9%	9.8%	2.2%	3.6%	5.52	5.70	-0.4
2027	34	MLB CTX	WSH	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	12.9%	9.2%	3.7%	3.3%	5.24	5.36	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	WSH	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	11.9%	9.8%	2.2%	3.6%	5.52	5.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	32	168	750	104	52	28	78%	4.1	13.9%	7.0%	6.9%	3.7%	5.95	4.83	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		48	38	200	893	124	62	33	78%	4.1	13.9%	7.0%	6.9%	3.7%	5.95	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		192	156	885	3845	583	316	118	81%	4.6	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	3.1%	4.77	4.54	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	35	200	869	132	71	27	81%	4.6	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	3.1%	4.77	4.54	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spenser Watkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	13.8%	8.7%	3.0%	—	5.52	12.5%	3.0%	108	+0.46	—	—	—
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	77
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	77
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	77
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	76
Alfredo Aceves R 2016 · 4.78 FIP	33	SP	4.78	10.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.270	5.10	8.9%	0.0%	51	+0.32	4.78	160	75
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	74
Tim Lincecum R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	32	SP	4.88	17.9%	10.4%	3.6%	.351	5.87	14.4%	-1.1%	13	+0.99	4.20	166	74
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	74
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	73
Sergio Mitre R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	36	SP	4.76	9.7%	4.8%	3.4%	.282	4.54	11.8%	5.3%	103	-0.22	4.54	156	72
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	70
Kris Medlen R 2018 · 5.20 FIP	32	SP	5.20	16.2%	10.0%	4.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	261	69
J.D. Martin R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	33	SP	4.85	9.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.302	5.42	12.2%	-0.2%	249	+0.57	4.85	289	68
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	68
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	67
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	67
Francisco Cordova R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	32	SP	4.59	7.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	115	67
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	67
Cesar Carrillo R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	33	SP	4.97	12.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.320	6.22	11.0%	1.8%	66	+1.25	4.14	325	67
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	250	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	13.0%	9.2%	1.27	5.25
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43