Spenser Watkins
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134124vR 115
ERA5.11
FIP5.12
K%14.5%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%4.9%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.4
Whiff%
p1019.7%
K%
p1013.7%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
CT+0.6
SL-1.1
FB-1.8
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 4 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 75% | 4.7 | 13.0% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 3.13 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 4 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 75% | 4.7 | 17.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 2.56 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 79 | 340 | 70 | 25 | 7 | 93% | 5.7 | 15.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 3.97 | 5.25 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 79 | 340 | 70 | 25 | 7 | 93% | 5.7 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 3.97 | 3.43 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 110 | 476 | 83 | 39 | 10 | 82% | 5.0 | 13.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.53 | 5.05 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 110 | 476 | 83 | 39 | 10 | 82% | 5.0 | 17.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 3.53 | 3.84 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 18 | 137 | 556 | 113 | 45 | 8 | 67% | 5.1 | 16.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 1.0% | 2.76 | 3.39 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 18 | 137 | 556 | 113 | 45 | 8 | 67% | 5.1 | 20.3% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 2.76 | 3.19 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 138 | 608 | 121 | 44 | 26 | 89% | 5.1 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 6.07 | 5.80 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 138 | 608 | 121 | 44 | 26 | 89% | 5.1 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 4.3% | 6.07 | 4.75 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 90 | 402 | 65 | 30 | 20 | 67% | 3.8 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 6.28 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 90 | 402 | 65 | 30 | 20 | 67% | 3.8 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 6.28 | 5.54 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 118 | 508 | 75 | 33 | 13 | 89% | 4.4 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 3.99 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 118 | 508 | 75 | 33 | 13 | 89% | 4.4 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.10 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 75 | 368 | 69 | 44 | 11 | 77% | 3.4 | 16.5% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 8.00 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 75 | 368 | 69 | 44 | 11 | 77% | 3.4 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 8.00 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 25 | 23 | 118 | 507 | 92 | 39 | 12 | 92% | 4.7 | 16.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.24 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 25 | 23 | 118 | 507 | 92 | 39 | 12 | 92% | 4.7 | 18.1% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 4.56 | 3.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 62 | 263 | 38 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.5% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.11 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 33 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 13.6% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 27 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.58 | 5.76 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 11.6% | 11.3% | 0.3% | 4.0% | 5.91 | 6.13 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 13.6% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.58 | 5.76 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.6% | 11.3% | 0.3% | 4.0% | 5.91 | 6.13 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 41 | 32 | 168 | 750 | 104 | 53 | 28 | 78% | 4.1 | 13.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 5.96 | 4.83 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 38 | 200 | 893 | 124 | 63 | 33 | 78% | 4.1 | 13.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 5.96 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 192 | 156 | 885 | 3845 | 592 | 328 | 126 | 81% | 4.6 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.69 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 35 | 200 | 869 | 134 | 74 | 29 | 81% | 4.6 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spenser Watkins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.12 | 14.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 5.75 | 12.7% | 2.1% | 153 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.44 | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.44 | 117 | 78 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 77 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.37 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 76 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 76 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 76 |
| David Fletcher R 2023 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 74 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 74 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.71 | 10.8% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .270 | 4.97 | 8.9% | 0.0% | 51 | +0.26 | 4.71 | 160 | 73 |
| Leo Medrano R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 222 | 73 |
| Sergio Valenzuela R 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.47 | 10.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 244 | 73 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 72 |
| Kris Medlen R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.11 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 261 | 71 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.30 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 198 | -0.43 | 3.63 | 885 | 70 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2029 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 70 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 69 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 69 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 69 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 2.5% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 68 |
| J.D. Martin R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.84 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 5.47 | 12.2% | -0.2% | 249 | +0.63 | 4.84 | 289 | 68 |
| Matt Cain R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.83 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.83 | 294 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 13.2% | 10.3% | 1.33 | 5.44 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |